2017 has been super good for Ervin Santana thus far, peaking with an studly 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks game against the Chicago White Sox yesterday. Santana now holds a cool 0.41 ERA, 0.45 WHIP, 15 Ks and a 3-0 record after a trio of starts. Hard not to get on board right? Well…nothing really has changed in my book. I’ve always thought of Santana as a VPR darling, in that he’s a great stream against poor offenses, but he’ll get rocked often against worthy opponents. We all know those guys who have fun demolishing younger kids in pick-up basketball games but disappear completely when against players their size. Santana faced the White Sox twice and Royals to being the season and these outings do little to make me believe that he won’t be the initial assessment made in the preseason. He gets the Indians and Rangers next and I’m thinking that we’ll have a fun conversation after those two starts.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
James Paxton – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Because you’re all up in this fantasy baseball thing too, you know that’s three straight starts of 0 ER from Paxton to start the year. I’ve said multiple times Paxton is easily Top 20, even Top 15 if we knew we’d get 200 innings. That’s always going to be the question and nothing has changed to make me reconsider his current estimated 170 innings or so. Nothing really will change that unfortunately, which means his path to being Top 15 is going to take a while. It’s all about getting deeper in the year to limit the chances of him getting injured, really.
Tyler Chatwood – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Ugh, I need to dive into this one, don’t I? Velocity is up from 92.0 to 94.8 on his Four-Seamer (Trackman? Still seems high for that), while using his Changeup a little bit more, and the change has paid off (hey yo!)…but he’s only thrown 14 of those Changeups and a 35.7% whiff rate is far from sustainable. Apparently he changed his Curveball/Changeup approach for this game. Sure, that sounds nice but let’s get serious here. He performed poorly against the Brewers and Padres prior and this game with AT&T park. Are we going to believe that a small change in approach with his CB/CH is suddenly vaulting Chatwood into a must own 12-team guy? Yeah, no I can’t buy into that.
Chris Sale – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 12 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I’m feeling pretty good about that preseason #3 Sale ranking so far.
Jacob deGrom – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 13 Ks. Aces gonna ace. deGrom is killing it.
Alec Asher – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Aces gonna ahhhhh I can’t even keep a straight face.
Marco Estrada – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. This is so Estrada. That walk rate worries me, but then he’s like “Nick noooo! Just four hits, so we’re cool!” Yeah, we’re cool Estrada. We cool. Especially against the O’s and definitely the Angels next. What is more important news for me though is his teammate Aaron Sanchez heading to the DL with a blister. Not cool at all. I thought we were past that?
CC Sabathia – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. I find it tough to truly believe in CC, but the Cards are not looking like a strong team right now and I went with a half point here. Whatever, a Win is a Win is a Win! Streaming Record: 4.5-4-1
Tanner Roark – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Okay, I’m cool with this Roark against the Phils. Hard to think he’s going to explode with the same K production as last year, which means you’re kind making a Grave Mistake, and that’s just not my style.
Jeremy Hellickson – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Diablo walks the earth…On the real though, Hellickson can show up from time to time, but his Fastball isn’t good enough for his sweet Changeup to make him a consistent asset.
Sean Manaea – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 Hits, 5 BBs, 6 Ks. There’s a part of me that is super pumped for Manaea, then there’s the other part that has nightmares of his loose command yesterday. He throws across his body, which has worked out for him for a while, but when he loses that feel it can be incredibly tough. Sure, he walked three of those five in the sixth inning to load the bases, but he was battling it all day. All in all, I still think Manaea has the stuff and ability to make an adjustment and I don’t think this is an indication of failure through the year.
Nathan Karns – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. This is the Karns I wanted to see like two years ago. Now I can’t have any faith this will show up again and it didn’t come with the Ks like before.
Matt Shoemaker – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. This is the start we needed to see from Shoemaker, even if it was against the Royals. You should feel fine rolling with him against the Astros.
R.A. Dickey – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Six Ks! Six frames and just 2 ER! He’s back! Ha ha ha. Points to sign Don’t Trust A Knuckleballer.
Carlos Martinez – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 8 BBs, 11 Ks. What on earth is this. That’s 19 batters who didn’t put the ball in play in 23 plate appearances. That’s just nuts. What’s most annoying now, though, is I’ll have to reference this start through the entire year when talking about his BB/9 and K/9. No that was skewed by that super weird day in April. I’m going to be pro-active and give it a name now so I don’t have to write that sentence every time. Let’s go with…The One and Dunn, after Adam Dunn, the king of true-outcome at-bats. I’ll add it to the Glossary. Anyway, what does this mean for CarMart? Ehhh, he had only 1 walk in two starts prior, so I’m willing to ignore this for all its oddity and move on like nothing happened.
Adam Conley – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. He was supposed to be a Call Boy earlier in the week, but the Marlins shifted things around and Sabathia got the nod instead. I think I would have taken a point fro this given the low WHIP and QS, but who knows. Anyone want to make up strict rules for streamer points? Feel free to tell me in the comments. About Conley though, he’s just a streamer in the NL Easy and far from my favorite choice, not a guy I’m rolling with in a 12-teamer regularly.
Jake Arrieta – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. This is so not an Arrieta start. What about more Walks/Ks? 3 ER in under six frames? This is like Jhoulys Chacin on a good day.
Jake Odorizzi – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. He left with a hamstring strain and heads to the DL. Womp womp. Expect Chase Whitley to take his spot, who I’m pretty meh about. Don’t think he’ll make The List.
Zach Davies – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Man, Davies really is struggling isn’t he? Couldn’t handle the Reds, I hope he can handle not being owned…
Andrew Cashner – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Blegh, I Cashed Out a long time ago and so should you.
Kenta Maeda – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Wow, three starts and just 14 innings to his name. Hard to put much faith in him next time out and I’m definitely giving him a major drop tomorrow.
Brandon Finnegan – 1.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. It’s a strained Lat muscle for Finnegan as he heads to the DL as well. Because that’s why he had 8 walks across three innings of work. Totally. It’s too bad this one didn’t work out, he looked completely different in that first start against the Phils and I was cautiously optimistic. He’ll be off The List tomorrow for obvious reasons and that’s just how it goes.
Tyler Glasnow – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Because a start against the Cubs was totally going to work out.
Corey Kluber – 6.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. This was such a tough start to watch with both Klubs and Jimmy V (Why do you still call him that? I DON’T KNOW) having a rough day at the park. Kluber isn’t out of April just yet, don’t do anything silly.
Justin Verlander – 4.0 IP, 9 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. It’s funny, suddenly Verlander has one bad start and now I hear a lot of people saying “See? I told you he’d regress”. Dude, come on. One bad start against the Indians after killing it prior. He’s not moving from his #7 spot tomorrow.
Patrick Corbin – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Yeeeeeeep. Just looking at Corbin’s name makes me smell Monkey Shoulder.
Clayton Richard – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. It’s The Wrong Clayton. At least y’all believe me now.
Lance McCullers Jr. – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. After all the praise McCullers has been getting, he elected to show y’all why he isn’t going to win the AL Cy Young. Still like him because I’m decent at this whole SP thing, but don’t think he’s immune for clunkers. There will be a few of them and this one wasn’t even fueled by his walk issues.
Jose Quintana – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks. Ohhhhh boy this is rough. I don’t have any shares of Quintana, but this is painful. I feel like every pitcher and I have some kind of connection – Okay maybe not Jeff Samardzija and Colby Lewis – but that’s two horrendous outings now out of three. He’s lost vertical drop on his Curveball again – and that’s with me calibrating a bit with Trackman – but I wouldn’t act like he’s just fallen off and donezo. I think there’s value to be had going after Quintana if you need SP help.
Matt Moore – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. But Moore…yeah I’m not banking on him putting it all together as this who he his. He has those little stretches of success and then looks like Gilligan as he’s lost on the mound. The path to upside is too foggy for me to endorse this.
Today’s Streamer
Charlie Morton vs. Oakland Athletics – I’m digging Morton’s upped velocity and the A’s will be an easier time than the Mariners for Morton.
Tomorrow’s Streamer
Joe Musgrove vs. Los Angeles Angels – Loving this outing for Musgrove and while he hasn’t been the polished self I hoped for thus far, a start against the Angels can calibrate him quickly.
Jordan Montgomery vs. Chicago White Sox – WHAT’S THIS? TWO STREAMERS?! Yeah, I’m doubling down today as Monty gets the White Sox. Don’t love him long term, but I think this can be beneficial if you need a hot start to the week.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Luis Severino vs. Chicago White Sox – There are actually a decent amount of options this week – Shelby Miller against the Padres is my favorite for deeper leagues – but Sevy seems like the best upside play considering his strikeout explosion against the Rays and the ChiSox being terrible.
Game of the Day
Jameson Taillon vs. Jon Lester – Y’all know my love for Taillon and if he succeeds against the Cubs after rolling through the Red Sox for his first start…hold me.
Sunday’s Need A Win
Wily Peralta vs. Cincinnati Reds – I don’t expect Peralta to be all too beneficial this year but this could work well.
Tyler Skaggs vs. Kansas City Royals – The Royals aren’t all too great and Skaggs could pull it off.
Bartolo Colon vs. San Diego Padres – The Giant Peach has it in him to take advantage of the Padres.
James Shields vs Minnesota Twins – For the truly desperate.
Hector Santiago vs Chicago White Sox – Seriously. Really desperate.