Before the season began, the Pitcher List staff convened to select our preseason predictions. We covered everything from division winners, award winners, statistical leaders, overperformers, and underachievers.
With the season in the books, let’s return to page one. What’s made the staff look like Nostradamus, and who’s forced us to eat crow?
Division Winners
Who will win the American League East?
PL Staff Predicted: Baltimore Orioles (32 votes, 78%)
AL East Champion: New York Yankees (94-68)
Carried by Atlas-esque seasons from Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, the Bronx bombers stand alone in the East. While not an entirely unexpected outcome, surprises stood on the road to it. Clay Holmes lost the closer role to Luke Weaver, Gerrit Cole looked abnormally human at times, Clarke Schmidt’s been their second-best pitcher, and Austin Wells is one of the premier offensive players.
It was a strange race on the whole. Both the Orioles and Yankees traded first place with one another like long-distance sprinters do a baton. Sadly for Baltimore and the PL staff, New York made the final transaction.
Who will win the American League Central?
PL Staff Predicted: Minnesota Twins (23 votes, 56.1%)
AL Central Champion: Cleveland Guardians (92-69)
Well, this is a surprise. Despite receiving seven votes, the Guardians defied the odds to capture the division crown. Cleveland’s success isn’t a case of luck, however. Their 92-69 record is the sixth-best in baseball, and their pitching ERA is tied for third. Cleveland is and continues to be the real deal, even if their offense still lacks a little juice. That said, the team’s finished first or second in the Central every season since 2016. Winning in the regular season isn’t a trend.
Kansas City stayed with Cleveland, at one point being just one-and-a-half games behind the club following a late August series. There is nobility in Kansas City’s defeat. The same notion would’ve applied to Minnesota if not for its September collapse. More on that later.
Who will win the American League West?
PL Staff Predicted: Houston Astros (23 votes, 56.1%)
AL West Champion: Houston Astros (88-73)
Though the status of this prediction got a little hairy, the PL staff can thank the Astros’ 61-39 record from June 1 to September 24 for their first correct pick. They can also thank Yordan Alvarez, Framber Valdez, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, Hunter Brown, and Ronel Blanco. Each Houston stud came in clutch to nail down the division. It’s a remarkable turnaround that gives Houston its fourth-straight AL West win.
Who will win the National League East?
PL Staff Predicted: Atlanta (39 votes, 95.1%)
NL East Champion: Philadelphia Phillies (95-67)
Everyone gets a mulligan here. Atlanta suffered body blow after body blow this season. The club lost Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, Reynaldo López, Ozzie Albies, and several others to injuries at different points. It was a season littered with potential knockouts. It’s a testament to the organization’s fortitude that they’re still standing on the mat.
Yet, Atlanta didn’t lose the NL East as much as Philadelphia won it. Zack Wheeler’s been immaculate, Bryce Harper continues to hammer his name into the hallowed halls of Philadelphia sports history, and Kyle Schwarber continues to mash. They’ve arguably been the best team all season long and unquestionably the best team in the East, laying claim to it for the last 130 days. It wasn’t even a contest.
Who will win the National League Central?
PL Staff Predicted: Chicago Cubs (20 votes, 50%)
NL Central Champion: Milwaukee Brewers (93-69)
If there’s one lesson to glean from all this, don’t sleep on Midwestern, middle-of-the-pack spending organizations with a proven track record. First, it was the Guardians, and now it’s the Brewers. You can remove Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Christian Yelich, yet you shouldn’t doubt Milwaukee. The club’s finished first or second in the Central in seven of the last eight years and remains a stalwart. Everyone else can have their shiny toys while Milwaukee sticks to its guns.
The Cubs were one of those teams with newfound luster thanks to their offseason spending but remain dull. The team entered the All-Star break 47-51, started to shine, and then sunk like a stone. Their 12-16 September record only exacerbates the pain for the Cubbies fans and the PL staff.
Who will win the National League West?
PL Staff Predicted: Los Angeles Dodgers (41 votes, 100%)
NL West Champion: Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64)
The Dodgers truly are inevitable. Though the team lost Mookie Betts, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Max Muncy, and many more due to injury, the Dodgers are yet again NL West champions. While having Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and a flexible farm system helped navigate these losses, kudos to the Dodgers. They may kickstart a decade-long dynasty this October, but this wasn’t the cakewalk anyone expected in March.
Often muddying LA’s path were its NL West brethren. The Padres played inspired baseball in the second half. As did the Diamondbacks. Both teams have two of the best five records over the last 80 games and kept the race close to the end. That said, it always felt clear that The Boys in Blue would cross the finish line first.
Pennant Winners
Who will win the ALCS?
PL Staff Predicted: Baltimore Orioles (22 votes, 55%)
There’s a reason over half the PL staff picked the Orioles. Their acquisition of Corbin Burnes allowed them to remake themselves into something better — stronger. Yet the Orioles will waltz into the playoffs with a worse record than a year ago. And that’s just looking at things from a distance. Looking deeper you’ll find Adley Rutschman has a career-worst OPS, Jackson Holliday failed to add anything, and Cedric Mullins is a shell of himself. Likewise, three of the seven players Baltimore obtained at the deadline of its go-for-it season aren’t even on the MLB roster.
Baltimore left a vacuum, much to the PL staff’s chagrin. New York and Cleveland filled it. The former’s relied on its stars and rode them to a 90+ win season. The latter is a pure team effort, scoring spectacular seasons from the always underrated José Ramírez, the immaculate Emmanuel Clase, and the steady presence of Steven Kwan.
That said, the ink on the 2024 Orioles is not dry. The book remains open for Baltimore if it wants to write a different ending and reward the staff’s confidence.
Who will win the NLCS?
PL Staff Predicted: Atlanta (21 votes, 52.5%)
It’s hard to pick one favorite in a crowded yet obscured NL. The Phillies have become perennial locks for the NLCS after making it in back-to-back seasons. Couple that with a 95-win season, amazing efforts from their stars, and an improved bullpen, and Philly seems surefire. Yet the confidence felt for the Phillies now was felt for the Dodgers in 2022 and Atlanta in 2023 and neither team advanced past the NLDS.
Speaking of the Dodgers, they’re another candidate to reach the promised land. Their road toward that pursuit looks like the Oregon Trail, however. Nowhere is that felt more than with their pitching staff. After Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Dodgers will start Walker Buehler in a potentially crucial game 3 of the NLDS. That once would be a comforting thought if Buehler pitched like his old self. Instead, he’s up to a 5.38 ERA and a -0.2 fWAR in 2024.
Atlanta, the PL staff’s preseason pick, knows plenty about injuries. Impossibly, though, they’re still standing. Whether or not they rattle off a run and reward the staff’s preseason favor is a question only October can answer.
World Series
Who Will Win the 2024 World Series?
PL Staff Predicted: Atlanta (17 votes, 42.5%)
Unfortunately, the PL staff doubled up with Atlanta, picking them to win the World Series. That hope feels on life support, but thankfully, the Dodgers finished second in our voting.
The Dodgers have their warts, many of which have been mentioned, yet they’ll enter the postseason with Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman leading their batting order. That aspect of the equation remains intact. Likewise, they still have Teoscar Hernández, Will Smith, Tommy Edman, and Gavin Lux. This offense can carry LA in the playoffs. They just need to show up in October for a change.
Award Winners
Who will win the AL Cy Young?
PL Staff Predicted: Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles (13 votes, 33%)
Current Favorite: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers.
While Corbin Burnes remains in contention, the AL Cy Young will go Tarik Skubal. While it may feel bold to call it a certainty, it’d be a shock for anyone other than Detroit’s ace to take home the hardware. Why? Skubal won the triple crown, posted an 18-4 record, a 2.39 ERA, 170 ERA+, 0.922 WHIP, 2.49 FIP, and a wonderous 5.9 fWAR. Skubal also leads the AL in FIP, xFIP, fWAR, K%, and SIERA.
Compare Skubal’s numbers with the other contenders, and it’s a given. Compare those numbers with past winners, and it’s a lock. Skubal’s 2.39 ERA is lower than the following Cy Young seasons: Gerrit Cole’s 2.63 ERA in 2023, Robbie Ray’s 2.84 in 2021, and Justin Verlander’s 2.58 in 2019. It’s not a question. Skubal is going to win the Cy Young.
Who will win the NL Cy Young?
PL Staff Predicted: Spencer Strider, Atlanta (22 votes, 56%)
Current Favorite: Chris Sale, Atlanta.
The PL staff was in the right church but the wrong pew with this pick. Not that they’re to blame. Tommy John Surgery cut short Spencer Strider’s campaign and cut through the front line of Atlanta’s rotation. Thankfully, Chris Sale picked up the slack.
While the left-hander will likely make his final start of the season in Monday’s bizarre double-header, he sports splendid numbers thus far. He leads the NL in ERA, FIP, fWAR, wins, K/9, and strikeouts. That last feat grows in appreciation when considering Sale’s made 29 starts. Dylan Cease, whose 224 strikeouts are tied for second, has pitched 33 starts. Sale’s been here before, finishing second, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth in Cy Young voting. This year, though, feels different.
Who will win the AL MVP?
PL Staff Predicted: Juan Soto, New York Yankees (12 votes, 30%)
Current Favorite: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Getting this pick wrong doesn’t reflect poorly on the staff or Soto. The 25-year-old superstar spouted off an incredible season, hitting .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs, 109 RBI, 31 doubles, 178 OPS+, and a .989 OPS. To put Soto’s OPS in perspective, consider this: Of his seven-year career, this is his highest OPS since 2021 and the third-best of his career. In other years, he’d be in this race. Unfortunately for Soto, this won’t even be a photo finish due to Judge.
Let’s start here. From August 26 to September 12, Judge hit .207/.352/.259 with no home runs, just four RBIs and a .611 OPS. It was one of his worst stretches of the season. Even with those two weeks, Judge finished 2024 hitting .322/.458/.701 with 58 home runs, 144 RBI, and a 1.159 OPS. That’s how good Judge was. His 1.159 OPS isn’t just a career-high, however. It’s the best single-season number by any hitter this century.
Who will win the NL MVP?
PL Staff Predicted: Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta (13 votes, 32.5%)
Current Favorite: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Does Ohtani play defense? No. Should it affect his NL MVP candidacy? No. Why? Because he’s first in the NL in OPS, wRC+, fWAR, home runs, RBI, and runs scored. He’s also second in stolen bases and batting average. If we rewarded Ohtani with MVPs in past seasons, how can we deny him another when he’s posting career highs in home runs, RBI, runs scored, and total bases while playing in 158 of 162 games?
Who will win AL Rookie of the Year?
PL Staff Predicted: Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers (18 votes, 45%)
Current Favorite: Luis Gil, New York Yankees
Wyatt Langford won’t win the Rookie of the Year for a lack of trying. The former Florida Gator finished his inaugural season strong. In 132 games, Langford hit .253/.325/.415 with 16 home runs and 74 RBI. It was a strong campaign with especially encouraging signs in the second half.
Instead, one of the favorites for the award is another outfielder drafted in the top five: Colton Cowser. On the surface, there’s not much separating the two. Cowser hit .242/.321/.447 in 153 games. What catapults Cowser over Langford is his slugging and power. The Orioles outfielder’s 24 home runs are the most among all AL rookies and fifth-most by an Orioles rookie. Add Cowser’s 69 RBI, 24 doubles, and three triples to his ledger, and he’s a shoo-in.
Or, at least, he would be in most years. Complicating Cowser’s candidacy is Yankees starter Luis Gil. The 26-year-old sports a 3.50 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 171 strikeouts over his 29 starts and has become a mainstay in the Yankees rotation. His last start against the Pirates may leave a sour taste, however. Pittsburgh tagged Gil for six earned runs. The performance bumped his ERA from 3.27 to 3.50. While a still solid number, a 3.50 ERA would be the fourth-highest by a Rookie of the Year winner in the award’s history.
Who will win NL Rookie of the Year?
PL Staff Predicted: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers (17 votes, 42.5%)
Current Favorite: Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres or Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
The NL Rookie of the Year is a two-horse race. Unfortunately, the PL staff didn’t pick either equestrian.
Let’s start with Jackson Merrill. The 21-year-old’s been superb for San Diego, hitting .292/.326/.500 with a .826 OPS and accumulating 5.2 fWAR. That last number is the highest on a 90+ win team entering the playoffs as a potential World Series favorite. Merrill’s accomplishments aren’t just caged to his offensive performance. He’s played a terrific center field despite registering just five games in the outfield during his three years in the minors. Capping off an All-Star rookie season with a Rookie of the Year trophy only feels fitting.
Paul Skenes, Merill’s number one competitor, feels the same way. Everyone knows Skenes’ story by now. He hasn’t just become the face of Pittsburgh Pirates baseball. The 22-year-old is becoming one of the icons of the game. And for good reason. Since debuting on May 11, Skenes has led the NL in ERA, WHIP, and SIERA while being second in FIP, strikeouts, and fWAR. As if that weren’t enough, Skenes’ 1.96 ERA is the second-lowest by a rookie with at least 20 starts since 1913, according to MLB.com’s Sarah Langs.
Either way, voters can’t go wrong.
Miscellaneous
Which reliever will finish first in saves?
PL Staff Predicted: Tie, Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians, and Edwin Diaz, New York Mets (10 votes, 25% each)
Saves Leader: Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals.
Neither Emmanuel Clase nor Edwin Díaz finished first in saves. That well-deserved honor belongs to Ryan Helsley. The Cardinals closers corraled opposing hitters all season, limiting them to a .210/.275/.273 slashline and a .549 OPS. As a result, Helsley’s piled up 49 saves this season in 62 games pitched.
Helsley’s number pales in comparison to Clase’s. That’s not shaming Helsley, however. It’s celebrating how impossibly good Clase’s been. The right-hander has 47 saves, a 0.61 ERA, 674 ERA+, 0.659 WHIP, 66 strikeouts, and 2.3 fWAR in his 74 games. Clase didn’t lead the sport in saves, but he can dry his eyes with presumably a top-five finish in AL Cy Young voting.
Which team(s) who made the playoffs last year will miss it this year?
PL Staff Predicted: Miami Marlins (17 votes, 57%)
2023 Playoff Teams Not Currently In A Playoff Spot: Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, and Toronto Blue Jays
The Marlins were the reddest of flags heading into the season. They impossibly made the playoffs last season with a -57 run differential and then suffered serious blows in the offseason. Reigning Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara required Tommy John Surgery, General Manager Kim Ng left the organization, and the front office made no attempts to mitigate the loss of Jorge Soler. Floundering in 2024 wasn’t a mistake. It was the goal. Miami continued to prove that during its in-season transaction by shipping out All-Stars Luis Arraez and Tanner Scott.
Missing the playoffs wasn’t the goal of the Rays, Rangers, or Blue Jays. Despite that, each team flubbed 2024. The Rays’ cash constraints caught up to them, injuries ravaged the Rangers, and the Twins tarnished their season with a 12-25 record in September before being bounced from playoff contention.
Who will be the most disappointing team this season?
PL Staff Predicted: Texas Rangers (11 votes, 27.5%)
The Texas Rangers‘ fate seemed predestined before the season started. A rash of pitching injuries reduced the team’s rotation to cinders, and another string shattered their startling lineup to a stars and scrubs operation. 2024 would always end worse than 2023 in Texas. It was clear. What wasn’t so obvious was everything else. Marcus Semien’s .699 OPS is his worst in a full 162-game season since 2014. Likewise, Adolis García hit 14 fewer home runs and posted the first sub-.700 season of his career. Worst of all, Jonah Heim went from one of the better offensive catchers in terms of OPS to the worst among those with at least 450 plate appearances.
The Twins, who did not receive a vote in our preseason polling, also deserve mention. On September 1, Fangraphs gave the club a 91.7% chance of making the playoffs. Their collapse is nothing short of shocking. Likewise, their shame should only grow considering they lost to the Reds, Red Sox, and Marlins. The Rangers need to grapple with never having loved at all. The Twins need to cope with having loved and lost.
Most underrated team this season?
PL Staff Predicted: Detroit Tigers (8 votes, 20%)
The Tigers being an underrated team isn’t a surprise. The lengths the team went to become underrated tested even the strongest convictions. Let’s recap: On August 1, the Tigers were 52-57. Their playoff odds were 0.5%, according to Fangraphs. They’d just traded away Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha, Andrew Chafin, and Carson Kelly. The Tigers were sellers and seemed earmarked for the cellar. There was no reason to believe.
Yet here we are at season’s end. The Tigers went 31-11 from August 11 to September 27 to make the playoffs. They’re not just the hottest team in baseball. Detroit’s the best story in the sport. The staff’s confidence may have wavered, but Detroit rewarded their faith.