After previously looking at a handful of bat speed risers, now we can look at the opposite end of the spectrum in hitters who reduced their bat speed over the course of the season. It is an interesting exercise to peruse hitters who didn’t have the best results early and then be willing to make some tweaks to their swing.
Sometimes, those changes can help lead to better results. Sometimes, we may attribute too much credit to those changes and can chalk it up to good fortune in a smaller sample. Or a player was dealing with an injury and simply felt better after recovering from it. Parsing out that difference and the nuances is the fun part. Let’s look at five hitters who made some subtle adjustments to their bat speed and swing length in 2024.
Matt Olson (34.93 ADP)
Olson had a down 2024 season by his standards. It is hard to follow up and replicate a 54 home run 2023 season. His first half was underwhelming as he had what would be his career’s lowest walk rate (9%) and nearly highest strikeout rate (27.4%).
Olson cut his swing speed by 0.5 MPH (74 → 73.5) and also shortened up a bit (7.4 → 7.2 ft). This tweak, in part, helped bring his strikeout rate back down to a solid 21.3% in the second half. Along with the improvement in contact, his superb batted ball metrics expectedly returned to form as well.
One specific component where Olson differed from 2023 to the first half of 2024 was his performance against four-seam fastballs. He saw four-seamers at a 38.6% rate, the third highest of his career. This was a well-discussed talking point as it applied to the Braves hitters collectively last season. Olson has an uppercut, scoopy swing that can leave him susceptible at the top of the zone. Getting stuck in between anticipating a fastball and breaking ball can be troublesome, but this has been something that Olson has managed well over his years.
He led baseball in Batter Run Value against four-seamers last season with 26 but flipped drastically to -8 in the first half. Olson then shortened up his swing even more (6.9 ft.) against heaters to match them at the top of the zone, which helped lead to a 17 Batter Run Value.
In the first half, he had only one home run on fastballs located in the top third of the zone compared to four in the second half. That matched the number he had in all of 2023 when he hit 54 home runs. There are no concerns about Olson as he goes through some of these feeling-out periods and then finds the right adjustment.
Yainer Diaz (55.15 ADP)
Diaz has a strong foundation with the ability to hit for a high average and power, a rarity among catchers. He can get by with his aggressive approach and second percentile chase rate with his contact ability. It does have an impact on his power output as he is making contact on pitches that he can’t do damage on, but that’s the trade-off.
Diaz reduced his bat speed by about 0.5 MPH (72.8 → 72.3) and swing length from 7.5 feet to around an average 7.3 feet. His results run counter to what we would generally expect as his swing and miss increased. Further, nothing significant changed as far as his swing decisions, but his quality of contact did see a jump. BABIP luck played a role as well in his second-half numbers, as his batted distribution did not differ much.
This subtle change helped enable him to square the ball up more (32.7% → 36.4%) at the expense of more strikeouts. The BABIP will come down, but it still seems like a worthwhile trade-off as his strikeout rate was still very good at 20%. The floor is already high for Diaz, and if he can inch closer to his 2023 fly-ball rates, the whole package could be very exciting.
Parker Meadows (186.80 ADP)
Meadows struggled mightily in the first half of 2024, slashing .131/.247.286 (56 wRC+) and striking out at a 35.1% clip. He was taking plenty of walks (12.4%) with a strong barrel rate (12%), but the results were just not there.
Meadows leaned into shortening and slowing up his swing to the extreme. He cut his bat speed by 2.5 MPH (72.3 → 69.8) and swing length by 0.5 ft. (7.6 → 7.1). He significantly upped his Z-Contact% (76.7% → 83.7%) and contact rate overall. It created a compelling difference in approach and an interesting evaluation.
His fast-swing rate of 5.8% was in the company of an assortment of punch and Judy hitters. Subsequently, his barrel rate and walk rate got cut in half. He was not hitting the ball hard. But his results spiked to a 137 wRC+ in the second half.
His first-half fly-ball rate was wildly unsustainable at 65.3% and had to come down. Ideally, Meadows can find a balance between the two approaches he showed. There was a collection of hitters who shared some of his key characteristics (HardHit%, Barrel%, BB%) in the second half, and the average OPS was just .679 compared to Meadows’s .838 mark.
However, he is still an intriguing power and speed option that showed the ability to adjust. The next step will be working to blend the contact quality and patience he has previously demonstrated.
Victor Robles (194.73 ADP)
Robles found a new home with Seattle and flourished. The former top prospect has played with his approach over the years. From trying to chase after his outlier power outburst in 2019 to a more aggressive spray line drives mindset, nothing really clicked for him. Robles was a bottom-five hitter in baseball by wRC+ from 2020 to 2022 (min. 800 PAs). After signing with the Mariners on June 4th, he posted a 154 wRC+.
Robles leaned into a more contact-oriented approach, cutting his average bat speed by 1.5 MPH (69.4 → 67.9) and swing length by 0.3 ft. (7.1 → 6.8). In a way, Robles’s season shape resembled Parker Meadows. While Robles’ first half was actually pretty good (123 wRC+), he was taking his walks (11.3%) with an unrecognizable barrel rate (15.6%). Only 71 PAs, but that is still crazy.
But like Meadows, he upped his Z-Contact% (78% → 86%) at the cost of taking walks. And he was included in the collection of hitters of poor quality of contact with below-average walk rate. Robles and Meadows were the only hitters of that cohort with an OPS above .800. Predictably, both ran the highest BABIPs during that time frame as well.
Robles made some serious strides in making contact, and if he can maintain his strikeout rate at a similar level, he makes for an intriguing option that can hit for a decent average and provide plenty of stolen bases.
Jo Adell (290.17 ADP)
Another former top prospect finds his way here, with Adell making some notable improvements in 2024. His swing and miss issues have crippled him from providing any value so far in his career. He managed to hit 20 homers with 15 steals in 2024, although it came with an ugly .208 AVG. His 27.9% strikeout rate was a big step forward and is passable for someone with his other strong traits.
Adell’s adjustments were the most subtle, reducing his bat speed by 0.3 MPH (76.8 → 76.5) and swing length by 0.2 ft. (7.6 → 7.4). He was able to maintain his elite bat speed for the most part while also shortening up. This tweak contributed to a second-half strikeout rate of 25% while maintaining excellent contact quality marks. He even raised his walk rate to what would be a career-best at 9.4%.
Adell made more contact in the zone (80.5% → 84.7%) and overall. His end of season 13.9% swinging-strike rate is a positive sign and could possibly signal that he can hold a strikeout rate below 30%. Further, his swing decisions looked promising as he was in the 96th percentile in SEAGER, a swing decision metric that correlates to power. He also made a more noticeable adjustment with his swing, pivoting from a higher leg kick to a toe tap later in the season.
There is reason to believe that Adell can put some of the pieces together to provide a healthy number of home runs and stolen bases. The playing time should be there, and with some better fortune, maybe the average won’t completely bottom out, although it will obviously not be a strength either. Lastly, for what it’s worth, Adell is one of just 18 players to be projected for 25+ home runs and 15+ stolen bases by the OOPSY projection system on Fangraphs.