The first full week of baseball begins with a nearly full Monday slate that features a few interesting SP debuts and “Opening Day” for the new-look New York Mets. With 13 games playing today, let’s take a look at the best bets for April 5th:
Orioles @ Yankees Total Runs O/U 9.5
The undefeated Baltimore Orioles (yes you read that correctly) have been one of the more surprising story lines to start the 2021 season. What is possibly even more surprising is that they have scored 18 runs with a 109 wRC+ while hitting ZERO home runs. ZERO. That is surely going to change soon and I fully expect it to today, especially with the wind blowing out to right-center at almost 20 MPH in Yankee Stadium today. That’s lazy fly balls turning into home runs type of wind. LHP Jordan Montgomery takes the mound today for New York and while I’m bullish on him this season, the conditions for his first start combined with the Orioles righty heavy lineup (Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle) that is 10-14 (.714 AVG) against lefties so far in 2021 don’t bode well.
Speaking of home runs, no team has hit more over the last 5 seasons than the Yankees. While the Bronx Bombers certainly didn’t live up to the name in their series against Toronto, Orioles starter Jorge López is a great remedy for their hitting woes. The 28-year old just simply has never had much success in the Majors (6.03 ERA) and will be hard pressed to find outs against a lineup full of hitters chomping at the bit to get the Pinstripes back in the win column. Despite the high total, look for runs a plenty here.
Pick: OVER 9.5 (-114 DK, -115 FD)
Jacob deGrom Total K’s O/U 8.5
Finally, we get to see Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets take the field after they had their opening series against the Washington COVIDs postponed. I feel like I don’t even have to write anything additional to support the over here, especially since Nick already noted on April 1st that deGrom is in fact good. In his last three full starts against the Phillies, deGrom has struck out 12, 10 and 9 and he had an outrageous 38.8 K% in 2020. How did he do in Spring Training you ask? Only 21 K’s in 13.2 IP, so yea all good there. To put the final nail in the Phillies’ coffin, they have the 3rd-highest K% in the league on the early season at 31.9%. Easy call here.
Pick: OVER 8.5 (-139 DK)
White Sox @ Mariners Run Line
I don’t think I am alone here but I am weirdly very excited to see Carlos Rodón make his season debut tonight in Seattle. The former third overall pick has never quite put everything together to be the frontline starter he was projected to be as a prospect, but he has shown flashes over the years. That includes during this past Spring Training, when he allowed just nine hits and one walk in 13.2 IP with 16 K’s and a 1.32 ERA. Rodón gets a favorable opening start against the Mariners who were the worst team in baseball against LHP in 2020 with a 72 wRC+ and are missing one of their better RH bats in Kyle Lewis.
While Seattle was the worst team in baseball against LHP in 2020, the White Sox were the best with a nearly double 142 wRC+ and get young lefty Justus Sheffield on Monday night. While Chicago will most likely be missing RH studs Eloy Jiménez and Tim Anderson for this one, they did rough up the Angels’ Andrew Heaney on Friday for seven ER in three innings. The White Sox just simply don’t miss against LHP and I like Rodón’s chances of limiting the Mariners in this late battle.
Pick: White Sox -1.5 (+138 DK, +138 FD)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 0-0-0
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)