Bets of the Day — July 9

Ryan Amore highlights Friday's best bets around baseball.

Angels at Mariners Run Line


These two pitchers just look really far apart right now. While the Mariners did get to Alex Cobb in their first encounter back on June 5th, tagging him for five runs across seven innings, I’m going to ignore it as a blip. This is a Mariner’s lineup that we shouldn’t be too scared of as they’ve posted a team wOBA of .295 to date ahead of only the Pirates. Cobb, meanwhile, has been strong overall with a 20.2% K-BB% while holding opposing hitters to just a .301 xwOBA. I suspect his 4.60 ERA goes down from here as we rumble along into the second half.

I cannot say the same, however, for his adversary Marco Gonzales whose 5.82 ERA belies a far more dubious 8.76 xERA. His K-BB% of 11.7% is roughly half that of Cobb. What’s more, his batted ball data is brutal. He’s allowed a .435 xwOBA to opposing hitters this year along with an alarming 17.6% barrel rate. Now, granted, we’ve seen Gonzales pitch really well before. He’s the sort of pitcher, though, that needs to command well to succeed and he just doesn’t seem to be doing that right now. If there’s one thing that really sticks out to me it’s the command on his sinker, he’s hitting the middle of the zone with it far too often and it’s getting hit hard to the tune of a .472 xwOBA. Given the advantage the Angels have on the mound, there’s some value in taking the run line here. 


Pick: Angels -1.5 (+125 DraftKings)


Philadelphia Phillies Total Runs


Garrett Richards is one pitcher who has struggled post sticky stuff. He’s been trying to reinvent himself on the fly throwing changeups for the first time since 2016 and I think he’s been a little fortunate to avoid an eruption so to speak as he got through a weak-hitting Royals team a couple of turns ago and the Athletics his last time out in what can be a more forgiving venue for pitchers in RingCentral Coliseum. Now back in run-friendly Fenway Park, he’ll face a Phillies lineup that I think has the power to take advantage with the likes of Rhys Hoskins, Andrew McCutchen, J.T. Realmuto, and, of course, Bryce Harper. He’s seen one of the largest dips in spin rate and his whiff rates have been down, case in point being just a 20.7% CSW in his last start. The impending implosion just feels like a matter of when not if. 

Pick: Over 5.5 (+112 DraftKings) 


Charlie Morton Total Strikeouts


The Marlins have been a favorable matchup for strikeouts this season as their team K rate of 26.2% ranks fifth-highest. We’ve seen ho-hum pitchers rack up strikeouts against them, if Drew Smyly can do it, why not Charlie Morton? The veteran Morton has been very effective this year for Atlanta with a 13% SwStr rate, 31.3% CSW, and 19.6% K-BB% on the year. In his last start against these same Marlins, he struggled a little giving up four earned runs but even still he got there with seven strikeouts backed by a 34.4% CSW. He also faced the Marlins back on April 14th and got there again with nine strikeouts and a 37.5% CSW. However, he did miss the mark in one start against them, back on June 11th, as he struggled with efficiency allowing four walks across just four frames. Given how efficient Morton has been on the year though, that one just seems like the outlier of their three prior meetings. 

Pick: Over 6.5 (-114 DraftKings) 

Ryan Amore Overall Record: 20-21-0


Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Ryan Amore

A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club, Ryan Amore has been writing things at Pitcher List since 2019. He grew up watching the Yankees and fondly remembers Charlie Hayes catching the final out of the '96 WS. He appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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