Deep League Risers and Fallers Week 3

If DLR&F were a trilogy, this would be the ultimate article. Michael Toglia, wielding a dual-bladed torpedo bat (still legal), would completely redeem himself with a grand slam off of a mustachioed Devin Williams to capture the Rockies’ first World Series title and let kids everywhere know that dreams can still come true. Then there would be a teaser setup where a little girl in Oklahoma threw a slider using only her mind. Alas, Deep League Risers and Fallers is a weekly installment, the Rockies are 3-13, magic doesn’t exist, and there are still twenty-some weeks remaining. I’m giving Togs one more week, let’s get to it.

 

Fallers

 

Joc Pederson, Outfield, Texas Rangers

10% Rostered

 

Playing in a rather strict platoon in Arizona last season (90% of his at-bats came against righties), Joc produced the best triple slash of his career. His slugging percentage was slightly higher a few years ago, but his .908 OPS bested his previous career high by over 30 points. Now, in Texas, there is still a very good lineup, and I expected more of the same. Sadly, Joc has gone 3 for 43 to start the season. He has scored twice, but has yet to homer or drive in a run.

Last season, Joc produced a 93rd percentile exit velocity, an 87th percentile barrel rate, a 79th percentile hard hit rate and a walk rate over 12%. He was an OBP league hero. Thus far in 2025, Joc has maintained above-average exit velocity, but his barrel and hard hit rates have cratered and both sit around the league’s bottom 20%.

However, Joc’s chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate are all better so far this season than last season. He also still has well above-average bat speed. He’s seeing roughly the same mix of pitches he did last year, too. All in all, unless there is some mystery injury here, I don’t see anything wrong. Joc is about to turn 33, so while age could be a factor, we already noted his bat speed is virtually unchanged, and he’s not hitting anything hard, so it doesn’t appear to be a “can’t catch up to heaters” issue.

Other Ranger hitters, notably Jake Burger, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager, have also started slowly, so I’m willing to be patient here and let the weather warm up in Texas. Only the Rockies and White Sox have scored fewer runs than the Rangers so far, but that won’t hold. Pederson isn’t striking out more than usual, and he’s got a .097 BABIP. If Joc was dropped in your league, I’d grab him at the first sign of life.

 

Taijuan Walker, Starting Pitcher, Philadelphia Phillies

23% Rostered

 

It was a nice two-game run. Well, really just the one game where he got to face the Rockies on the road. That game was a pretty obvious streamer’s delight, and those managers who took it feasted upon six shutout innings, a win and a quality start. His second outing of the year, against Atlanta, only lasted 4.2 innings, and was a moderate ERA boost, but a WHIP drag.

If you picked up Taijuan for the Rockies game, held through Atlanta, then got off the ride, good for you. If you thought you could get one more out of him, well, at least he got yanked after five innings. Those four earned runs and seven base runners might not ruin your week.

Taijuan peaked at 94 MPH on his four-seamer a few years ago, and sits closer to 92 MPH these days. He relies on a mix of breaking and off-speed pitches, and carried an ERA above 7 in 82 innings last year. At this point, Walker is a streaming option against bottom-tier offences or in desperate situations. That being said, his next start looks to be at home vs the Marlins this weekend, so maybe one more go around, and then break up for real. Block him on all your socials.

 

Max Kepler, Outfield, Philadelphia Phillies

4% Rostered

 

Kepler had a down year marred by injury in 2024. He played in just 105 games, and his .682 OPS was 70 points below his career average. But he had hit 24 dingers with an .816 OPS over 130 games in 2023, so there was some enthusiasm amongst deep league managers when he signed to play in Philadelphia. Although Target Field has been a slightly better park for offence than Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies’ offence has been better than the Twins’ offense in recent years.

Kepler, however, is batting just .224/.321/.347 with one homer, two RBI and seven runs scored through his first 50 at-bats. His exit velocity so far is just 87.9 MPH, worse than last year, and way down from his career high 91.9 MPH mark set back in 2023. His hard hit and barrel rates are slightly up from last season, but are both near league average. His early-season walk rate is a robust 12.5%, more than double his rate last season, and that has translated into a few runs scored, but Kepler doesn’t steal, and really needs to hit to be fantasy-relevant.

What’s most concerning is Kepler’s bat speed has declined for three consecutive seasons from slightly above average in 2023 to just above the bottom third currently. He also batted fifth for most of the first couple of weeks, but has dropped to sixth and seventh in the order in his last two games. Other than the walk rate, I don’t see much here to hang on to.

 

Risers

 

Pavin Smith, First Base and Outfield, Arizona Diamondbacks

7% Rostered

 

Clever readers may have seen this one coming after reading about Joc’s early-season struggles. The man who replaced him as the primary DH against righties in Arizona has been scorching hot through the first couple of weeks of the year. Smith is in a platoon, and the Diamondbacks faced a lot of lefty starters early, so he was on the bench for four of Arizona’s first six games, and that explains how he may have slipped under the radar in so many leagues.

Thankfully, the universe corrected itself, Arizona faced less sinister pitchers, and Smith has a .361/.439/.611 triple slash with one homer, 8 runs scored, and 4 RBI through just 36 at-bats. He’s sniffing around the top 10% of hitters in exit velocity and hard hit rates, and his 22.7% barrel rate is 98th percentile. His whiff and strikeout rates are both in the mid-30s and may be cause for concern, but we are still a while from those rates stabilizing, and Smith carried just a 19% strikeout rate last season.

Pavin Smith was an absolute monster down the stretch last year, mashing six homers and driving in 19 runs with a .290 batting average over 73 plate appearances in September and October. And he has seemingly picked up right where he left off. You do need to pay attention to his opponents due to the platoon situation, but Pavin Smith is poised to be a Monster of the Deep leagues this season and is likely going to be relevant in mixed leagues too. This is my full endorsement.

 

Kyle Stowers, Outfield, Miami Marlins

9% Rostered

 

Stowers was dealt to Miami along with Connor Norby last season in the Trevor Rogers deal. He did not light the world on fire, slashing just .186/.262/.295 over 50 games with his new club, but a new season has Kyle Stowers looking like a new man.

The 6’2″ lefty has started the 2025 campaign with a .314/.410/.471 line, one homer, ten RBI, and his first MLB stolen base in 61 plate appearances. Stowers is doing his best Pavin Smith impression with a 22.9% barrel rate. And he’s also produced a 57% hard hit rate, an exit velocity of 90.9 MPH and a 13% walk rate that is nearly double his career mark.

He’s got an 84th percentile bat speed to back up those power numbers, but his 36% whiff rate and 28% strikeout rate do tamp down my excitement. However, both of those rates represent career bests for Stowers, who, at 27 years old, is getting his first real run at a starting MLB gig. He’s batted in the top third since the calendar flipped to April and is available in 90% of leagues.

I like Pavin Smith more, but Stowers is playing every day, requires less lineup maintenance and will likely end up with more at-bats. Matt Mervis was featured here last week and has been launching bombs ever since, so don’t sleep on these Marlins (and maybe rethink getting that one last start out of Taijuan Walker).

 

Michael Busch, First Base, Chicago Cubs

48% Rostered

 

Busch is so hot right now that if he ordered me to tell the Pharaoh to let my people go, I’d at least consider it. As I write this, he has homered in three straight games and seen his roster percentage double overnight. Busch had a nice rookie season last year, slashing .248/.335/.440 with 21 dingers in 152 games, but produced just 138 combined runs and RBI. Moreover, his batting average dropped four consecutive months, from .297 in June, to .261 in July, .233 in August, and all the way to .216 in September and October.

So I can see why there was not a lot of hype surrounding Busch. But he’s off to a great start, is in a great situation batting fourth behind Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and contract year Kyle Tucker. He’s ranked slightly below our two other Risers this week in terms of exit velocity ( 91.9 MPH, 79th percentile), barrel rate (14.3%, 81st percentile) and hard hit rate, (50%, 72nd percentile), but Busch has struck out at a more palatable 24.2% so far.

Busch is a safer bet to make a season-long impact than Stowers or Smith, in my opinion, both because of his superior team and lineup context, and also due to his lower strikeout and whiff rates. However, his recent offensive outburst has also made him very expensive very quickly. But that’s how fast a potential Monster of the Deep can become a mixed league fixture.

 

Thanks, as always, for reading, and good luck out there, deep leaguers!