The Dynasty Performance Report is a regular series, highlighting each position and providing insight into the risers and fallers of both the major leagues and prospects.
The Inaugural Major League Report for the 2024 season will set the foundation for this monthly series. Each month, I will provide a brief recap of the players outlined in the previous edition of the article, followed by players who I’ve identified as current risers and fallers. If you’re prospect-focused, a minor league edition of this report will also run monthly.
Any mention of rankings in this article is directly from my personal Top 350 Dynasty Rankings.
**Stats entering play on August 13th, 2024*
RISERS
Lane Thomas, CLE
Thomas is one of those players that you look at and think, “Why is this guy a thing?”. Nothing in Thomas’ profile screams fantasy star or even mid-tier guy. But for the past two seasons, Thomas has become one of the most reliable players in fantasy, producing solid power and speed despite playing for the Nationals. The one metric where Thomas consistently excels is his sprint speed, which has ranked in the 95th percentile or higher since his breakout began. In one of the more interesting trades at this year’s deadline, the Nationals shipped Thomas to the Guardians on the shores of Lake Erie.
Injuries have limited Thomas this season, particularly an ACL sprain that cost him over a month earlier in the year. Despite the injury, Thomas has eight homers and 28 steals in 2024. Since joining the Guardians, Thomas has scuffled in his adjustment to the American League. He’s hitting just .109 in 13 games, with four runs and two extra-base hits. The Guardians are bouncing Thomas between the #2 and #5 spots in the lineup, giving him ample opportunities for improved counting stats and production.
Thomas gains a lineup upgrade in Cleveland, joining José Ramírez, Steven Kwan, and Josh Naylor. In addition, the Guardians have no hesitation in allowing their players to run at will, which bodes well for Thomas and his elite speed. This situation is a clear upgrade for Thomas and improves his value immensely. He has moved inside the Top 125 overall, and Thomas offers a safe floor moving forward.
Alec Burleson, STL
Prizefighter Leon Spinks once said, “Opportunity knocks only once. You never know if you’ll get another opportunity”. Alec Burleson got his knock, and he answered the call.
Entering the 2023 season, the Cardinals had numerous outfield options, including Burleson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, and highly touted prospect Jordan Walker. Edman moved to second base while Nootbaar and Walker exceeded 400 at-bats by season’s end. The rest was a mix of injury, platoon, and positional change. 2024 has been more of the same as O’Neill and Carlson have moved on, Walker has disappointed in the minors, and Nootbaar has disappointed in the majors.
Burleson on the other hand, has thrived. With more consistent playing time in 2024, he’s reached a career-high 404 at-bats and has responded with 20 homers and a .277 average, becoming the Cardinals’ most consistent hitter. The skills have always been encouraging for Burleson, a 6’2″ left-hander with a strong, powerful swing. In his career, Burleson has shown excellent zone contact skills and has limited his swing-and-miss, despite his aggressive approach. With a career chase rate north of 33% and swing rate of 54%, Burleson is no stranger to taking his hacks. However, in his career, his Whiff rate is only 19% with a 12% strikeout rate. And as you can see, his power has the potential to be impactful now that he’s been given more at-bats. The main concern with Burleson is that he remains in a platoon, albeit on the strong side, seeing limited at-bats against LHP.
2️⃣0️⃣ homers this season for Alec Burleson! #STLCards
📺: Bally Sports | 📱: Bally Sports app pic.twitter.com/z357TH9zrS
— Bally Sports Midwest (@BallySportsMW) August 10, 2024
Honorable Mention:
Jesus Sanchez, MIA
Do you know that GIF where Vincent Vega from Pulp Fiction, played by John Travolta, stands in an empty living room looking around for someone? That’s what Jesus Sanchez has to feel like right now in Miami. The 26-year-old outfielder has been given the keys to the rusty Buick and is now the Alpha Male in the Marlins’ lineup.
On the season, Sanchez is batting .239 with 14 homers and nine steals and will surpass his career-best marks in both categories. With his ability to hit the ball hard (93.5 Avg EV, 12.4% Barrel rate, 53.7% Hard Hit rate), Sanchez has the potential to be a 25-homer+ bat in a ballpark that grades out well for left-handed power. There are some plate discipline concerns, but when he hits the ball it goes a long way. I expect Sanchez to make a sizeable jump in the Dynasty rankings over the next 12 months.
Colton Cowser, BAL
Colton Cowser is back on his BS again. Just when I was ready to write him off for the rest of 2024, the 24-year-old is red hot again. Over the last 30 days, Cowser is batting .297 with six homers and 20 RBI and has been one the only consistent hitters in the slumping O’s lineup. Looking back at his minor league career, Cowser is traditionally very streaky on a month-to-month basis. If you can stomach the ups and downs, Cowser should still provide a 20-homer, 140 runs/RBI stat line at year’s end with a pretty good batting average. It may be best to roster Cowser in a daily league given his streakiness and occasional platoon issues but in the long run, Cowser should be a pretty nice option in Baltimore.
FALLERS
Adolis García, TEX
García burst onto the fantasy scene in 2021, belting 31 home runs with 16 steals as a 28-year-old rookie in Texas. García continued to mash over the next three seasons, producing 97 homers and 299 RBI from 2021-2023. While his production was good, García had a sub-.240 batting average and a strikeout rate north of 31%. But when you get the elite production, you’ll settle for the strikeout woes. This season, it’s been more woes than wows. Following up on a 39-homer season and his first World Series championship, García has struggled mightily.
His average has dipped to .219 with a .284 OBP and .673 OPS. Among qualified hitters, he ranks near the bottom in all of those categories and his expected stats aren’t much better. His batted ball metrics don’t look much different than in previous seasons, but García can’t put it together. What has changed is his plate approach. Historically an aggressive hitter, García has career-highs in chase rate (34%), 1st pitch swing rate (43%), and swing rate (52%). That’s likely a product of pressing and trying to do too much, which has yielded even worse results. Let’s not forget that García is also 32 years old, while not old for MLB, older for a fourth-year player.
García has a team-friendly $9.5M price tag next season and with youngsters Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter in the fold, the Rangers could look to move on in the off-season, which could alter the future value of the Cuban-born outfielder. Whether it’s a World Series hangover or the start of a decline, García is a faller in the outfield hierarchy.
Cody Bellinger, CHC
Bellinger remains one of the hardest players to value in fantasy. When he’s good, he puts together a .307/26/95/97/20 line and finishes in the Top 10 at his position as he did in 2023. When he’s bad, he nearly plays himself out of baseball like he did from 2020-2022. Entering this season, the expectation was that Belli had settled in and was comfortable in his new digs in Chicago. He mashed all season long in 2023 and looked like the MVP Bellinger from 2019. The Cubs gave him a big contract and it seemed all was right in the world.
This year’s iteration has been confusing. Bellinger has missed time with two separate injuries, but on the whole, everything seems blah. New Cubs manager Craig Counsell has slowed his running game down and Bellinger has just five steals after his 20-steal performance last season. He’s hitting for a good average (.276) and his 12 homers put him on a 21-homer pace, but the counting stats are several ticks down.
Under the surface, his batted ball data looks pretty similar. His EVs, launch angle, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate are mirror images of last year. His fly-ball rate is up about 5% and his line-drive rate has suffered. The only thing that stands out is his first pitch swing rate which is up 7% so perhaps he’s been too aggressive early in the count, but is that enough? The most discouraging thing is that his expected stats say that Belli has been very lucky, outperforming his xBA by 32 points, xSLG by 52 points, and his xWOBA by 37 points. So, who exactly is Cody Bellinger?
The struggle of valuing Bellinger is a tale as old as time. His profile has so much volatility and so much of his value is based on his running game, which has seemingly been put on the back burner. Given that Craig Counsell isn’t going anywhere and Bellinger isn’t either, if the production continues to be marginal, Belli’s value has to come down from inside the Top 100 where he had climbed to last season.
Honorable Mention:
Alex Verdugo, NYY
If points were given for big personalities and playing with a chip on their shoulder, Alex Verdugo would be a Top-10 fantasy asset. Unfortunately, that’s not the case and Verdugo’s stock is falling even further. As a former top prospect, Verdugo’s name value has carried his career for a while despite being a marginal performer. The 28-year-old seemed to figure things out in Boston, hitting for a good average and picking things up with his power. So the move to the Yankees this season was encouraging, given the short porch in right field and the surrounding lineup of Judge, Soto, and Stanton. Dugie has responded with a poor performance.
His .237/.299/.369 slash line represents the worst of his career and although he’s on pace for a career-high in home runs (14), Verdugo is entering free agency on a sour note. If Verdugo couldn’t figure things out in a hitter-friendly environment in New York, I can’t imagine it will get better next season. The reason that Dugie remains on the Top 350 is that he plays every day and has shown an ability to hit for high average in the past.
Mike Trout, LAA
What is pain? French bread and Mike Trout’s annual trip to the IL. Trout has entered the “What If?” discussion, joining my favorite player Ken Griffey Jr. What if they had played the majority of their team’s games for their whole career? What if they had avoided those major injuries? Where would they end up? That’s a discussion for the future.
Now that he’s been ruled out for the rest of 2024, Trout will have played in 319 games over the past five seasons, including a clear outlier of 119 in 2022. In reality, if you exclude that season, it’s an average of 50 games per season since 2020. When he’s healthy, Trout is probably a top-five asset in dynasty but that’s seemingly never the case.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photo by Ric Tapia / Icon Sportswire