Whether it’s early in the season, the middle of July, or late in the year, it’s always good to know where you stand in your Roto league.
Of course, perusing your league’s standings accomplishes that fairly quickly. However, numbers can often be misleading. Is your team producing at the level it should be as a league leader compared to the vast majority of other Roto leagues?
Are there underperforming players on your team, or available via waivers each week that could help you significantly in specific, or multiple, categories moving forward? This column aims to, and will, answer all those questions on a weekly basis, regardless of league size.
Essentially, it’s an almanac for Roto leagues and NFBC or TGFBI leagues, showing you not only the watermarks your team should be hitting category-wise to be truly elite but also the specific players that will help you get there. What’s more, it’ll also cover the top performers in each category, as well as some under-the-radar options for each metric as well.
Notes
A couple of quick notes before we begin. For metrics like ERA, WHIP, batting average, and on-base percentage, only qualified or close to qualified pitchers and hitters (respectively) were considered, especially at this time of year with smaller sample sizes running rampant.
Additionally, all rostered rate numbers are via FantasyPros as of Monday. Furthermore, in part due to NFBC leagues, all stats (as well as the rostered data) are via the previous week’s Sunday.
All the data in terms of Roto league production is from last year’s numbers.
Where You Should Be Producing In Each Category
Below is data for both 15-team and 12-team Roto leagues from last season and the average statistical totals that each placed team finished with. This is for the entirety of a season. Basically, if you want to do well in these two formats, these are the season-long watermarks to shoot for.
There’s also SGP data for both 15-team and 12-team formats.
Before we get any further, a massive thank you to Pitcher List Director of Data Analytics and Research Kyle Bland for getting a hold of the data.
And now, without further ado, the 15-team data, which comes from 2023 TGFBI leagues:
15-Team Leagues
(Quick reminder, the far left-hand column is where the team finished in the standings.)
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And here’s the 15-team, SGP data:
12-Team Leagues
And now for the 12-team, SGP data:
Category Power Rankings
Batting Average (AVG)
Leaders
Of Note: Jose Altuve.
Jose Altuve’s xwOBA numbers have dropped in recent years. Generally, a good bet to log an above-average xwOBA, the veteran has turned in an xwOBA over the .340 mark just once in the last five seasons, a trend that looks likely to continue this season.
He’s also striking out a bunch more than he usually does, with a 19.1% strikeout rate. It’s still a fairly good strikeout rate, but just not one in line with the minuscule strikeout rates Altuve has logged in the past.
Despite all that, as well as seeing his barrel rate drop from 8.3% last year to 6.6% this year, Altuve continues to be one of the league’s best at hitting for contact, with a .304 average in his first 427 plate appearances.
He’s still very much an upper-echelon fantasy second baseman in redraft leagues.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Donovan Solano.
Solano is once again logging a low strikeout rate (18.9%) and a high BABIP (.351) en route to some quality fantasy production so far. He’s batting .292 with a .351 on-base percentage, three home runs, and a stolen base through his first 185 plate appearances with the San Diego Padres this season.
Perhaps most crucially, he’s consistently either batting second or fifth for the National League West club. As long as the strikeout rate remains low, the BABIP stays on the higher side of things and he’s hitting in the top five in the Padres lineup, Solano is well worth adding as a bit of a long-term streaming option in fantasy leagues with 12 or more teams.
On-Base Percentage (OBP)
Leaders
Of Note: Jurickson Profar.
Outside of Garrett Crochett and perhaps Brent Rooker, Jurickson Profar has arguably been fantasy baseball’s best early-season waiver-wire addition.
The veteran is batting .300 with a .390 on-base percentage, 14 home runs, five stolen bases, a .166 ISO, and a 149 wRC+ in his first 407 plate appearances this season.
And while he did hit just .222 with a .288 on-base percentage through his first 60 plate appearances in July, it shouldn’t be too much of a cause for concern for Profar considering the stretch also included three home runs, a stolen base, and a .214 BABIP.
Still, if you can trade him for another batter who ranks within the top 30 or 35 overall hitters this season, now might be the time to pursue that type of deal.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: David Fry.
Speaking of hitters who have seen their production taper off some, Fry’s recent form at the plate is a bit more concerning.
He’s hitting just .219 with a .291 on-base percentage, no home runs, a 3.8% barrel rate, and a 36.3% hard-hit rate since the start of June.
He’s still hitting fifth with regularity for the Guardians, which is a good thing, but for a player who hit .352 with a .485 on-base percentage, eight home runs, a .276 ISO, and a 9.8% barrel rate (not to mention a 43.9% hard-hit rate) before June 1, it’s been a significant drop in production.
Now’s the time to consider trading away the versatile Cleveland batter.
Home Runs (HR)
Leaders
Of Note: Gunnar Henderson.
Let me take you back to 2023, a season in which Gunnar Henderson had a really good fantasy campaign.
The infielder hit .255 with a .325 on-base percentage, 28 home runs, and 10 stolen bases in 622 plate appearances, adding 100 runs scored and 82 RBI.
Fast forward to 2024 and Henderson already has collected 28 home runs in his first 447 plate appearances, batting leadoff on a regular basis for the Baltimore Orioles. He’s also already surpassed last season’s stolen base total with 14 and is sitting on 81 runs scored and 63 RBI.
It doesn’t hurt, either, that he’s also batting .290 with a .376 on-base percentage.
Henderson has gone from being a player drafted in the first few rounds of fantasy drafts (as he was this past season) to a surefire first-round fantasy pick (which he should be next year) with top-five overall potential.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Jo Adell.
Adell looked to be in the midst of a breakout season earlier in the year, but his production has fluctuated at times since.
Overall, Adell is batting .198 with a .267 on-base percentage, 15 home runs, and 12 stolen bases in 304 plate appearances, adding a 12.2% barrel rate and a 43.4% hard-hit rate in the process.
He’s been much more productive as of late, logging a .255 average, a .352 on-base percentage, two home runs, and three stolen bases in his first 54 plate appearances in July. With a strong overall barrel rate, stolen base potential, and elite bat speed, Adell still has elite fantasy upside. Even if the batting average and on-base percentage weren’t trending in the right direction (as they have been lately) he’d be a must-add for fantasy managers in most leagues given his fantasy ceiling.
Runs Scored (R)
Leaders
Of Note: Matt Chapman.
Chapman has enjoyed a quality season in his first year with the Giants. After a slow start that saw him post an 83 wRC+ in March and April, the veteran has turned in respective wRC+ totals of 129 and 124 in May and June respectively.
And while his wRC+ has dropped to 97 in July, Chapman is still sporting an 11.8% barrel rate and a 45.8% hard-hit rate for the season. The slower July obviously could be better, but Chapman remains a starting fantasy third baseman in all but the shallowest of formats.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Daulton Varsho.
With the real-life trade deadline fast approaching, it’s probably also time to think about completing some fantasy trades. If you’ve got Varsho on your fantasy roster, now might be the time to move the Blue Jays outfielder for a batter with better power potential.
Varsho is batting .203 on the season with a .288 on-base percentage in his first 388 plate appearances. He’s also added 11 home runs and nine stolen bases, two numbers that should give him solid fantasy trade value.
However, Varsho has just 12 barrels (good for a 5.8% barrel rate, all things considered) and a 30.8% hard-hit rate.
RBI
Leaders
Of Note: Brent Rooker.
As with a number of players in this column, whether or not Rooker is traded this month will be very much worth watching for his fantasy prospects.
For now, the 29-year-old has been one of baseball’s best hitters entering play Monday with a .294 average, a .373 on-base percentage, 22 home runs, and five stolen bases in 357 plate appearances, playing in one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly ballparks for one of the league’s lowest scoring offenses.
He’s also hit four home runs in his last 22 plate appearances.
Imagine him hitting in a more fantasy-friendly environment where ballpark and lineup production are concerned.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Michael Toglia.
Michael Toglia has done nothing but hit home runs lately.
Ok, so maybe he hasn’t just hit home runs, but the Rockies slugger has been on a tear at the plate lately. The 25-year-old entered play Monday with 16 home runs in just 203 plate appearances. And while he hit just .192 during that span, Toglia was also sporting a .347 xwoBA, a .192 BABIP, and a 52.5% hard-hit rate. And oh yeah, a 17.5% barrel rate.
It’s reasonably early, but he’s looking like a fantasy league winner, regardless of league size. Make your waiver wire claims accordingly.
Stolen Bases (SB)
Leaders
Of Note: Lane Thomas.
Like Rooker, whether or not Thomas is traded in real life is a storyline to watch for fantasy managers.
Unlike Rooker, his fantasy ceiling would probably take a hit if he’s dealt to a contender. While he’s stealing plenty of bases, Thomas’ power numbers have trended in a negative direction this year and it seems unlikely (speculatively speaking) that he’d hit in the top third of a contender’s lineup like he is with Washington.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Sal Frelick.
Frelick was already starting on a regular basis for Milwaukee, but with Christian Yelich on the injured list, it should further cement the 24-year-old place in the starting lineup.
And while he hasn’t done much from a loud contact standpoint, supplying a 1.2% barrel rate and a 21.5% hard-hit rate in his first 335 plate appearances, the outfielder is batting .273 with a .347 on-base percentage during that span and has started hitting fifth or sixth with regularity in recent weeks. If that trend continues, his fantasy ceiling should improve considerably with the potential for better counting stat production.
Pitchers
Strikeouts (K)
Leaders
Of Note: Chris Sale.
Sale has been excellent this season, pitching to a 2.70 ERA and a 2.22 FIP in 110 innings, striking out 32.4% of the batters he’s faced (a number which would be his highest strikeout rate since 2019) while walking just 5.6% of batters.
He’s a must-start moving forward, but perhaps temper some fantasy expectations just the smallest bit over the next few weeks. That’s not to say that Sale will struggle, but starting next week, his upcoming starts include contests at Milwaukee, at home to Miami, and on the road in Colorado. Obviously, the Marlins start is the most fantasy-friendly of the three on paper but starts in Milwaukee and Colorado aren’t always ideal for pitchers.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Kyle Gibson.
Speaking of upcoming starts, Gibson has a rather fantasy-friendly group of upcoming games, assuming St. Louis’ rotation continues on turn without any interruptions.
The veteran’s next three outings come at home to the Nationals, on the road versus the Cubs, and at home against the Rays. However difficult road matchups in Milwaukee and Colorado are, this might be the polar opposite from an on-paper standpoint against teams either in the bottom third in the league in runs scored (Washington and Tampa Bay) or just outside the bottom third (Chicago).
Add Gibson and start him with confidence for the next few weeks.
ERA
Leaders
Of Note: Shota Imanaga.
Imanaga hasn’t been extremely effective at limiting barrels or inducing grounders this season, with a 9.5% barrel rate (18th percentile) and a 33.1% ground ball rate (seventh percentile) that are both well below league average.
However, he’s been excellent at limiting walks and inducing swings and misses so far, two key components in the 30-year-old posting a 2.86 ERA and a 3.24 FIP in his first 104 innings this season.
Entering play this week, Imanaga ranked in the 97th percentile in chase rate (35.2%) and the 96th percentile in walk rate (4.04%) while posting solid whiff rate (27.8%, ranking in the 69th percentile) and strikeout rate (25.5%, ranking in the 71st percentile) metrics.
The strikeout and walk rates in particular should keep Imanaga well within the top 25 fantasy starters the rest of the way this season.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: David Peterson.
Peterson isn’t quite missing bats as he has in the past. After striking out at least 9.3 batters per nine frames in his last three seasons, including respective strikeout per nine innings metrics of 10.73 and 10.38 in the last two campaigns, Peterson is striking out just 6.66 batters per nine innings this year. His swinging strike rates have dropped too, going from 11.1%, 12.8%, and 12.3% in order from 2021 through 2023 to 9.6% so far in the Majors this season.
And while his 3.14 ERA on paper is certainly promising the (comparative) lack of strikeouts probably has something to do with a 4.79 FIP.
If Peterson is on our fantasy roster in a league with more than 14 teams, now might be the time to consider a trade, particularly considering the left-hander is walking 4.25 batters per nine frames.
Wins (W)
Leaders
Of Note: Ranger Suárez.
Suarez didn’t allow an earned run in five of his first nine starts this season, an incredible feat considering he threw at least six innings in eight of those outings and had starts lasting nine, eight, and seven (twice) innings during the stretch.
In a word, or a few rather, an ideal start.
Things haven’t been quite as ideal lately. Suarez has given up 12 earned runs in his last 16.1 innings and has thrown more than six innings just twice in an outing since that nine-start stretch to start the year.
Due in part to that early-season dominance, he’s still sporting a 2.87 ERA and a 2.98 FIP. However, his run-prevention numbers sit at 4.33 (in terms of his ERA) and 3.24 (in terms of his FIP) in 60.1 innings since those nine, early-season starts. He might not be a top-25 fantasy starter the rest of the way, but is very much keeping in fantasy lineups more often than not.
Still, considering Rusarez has never overwhelmed with strikeouts on a regular basis—his strikeout rate has never finished above 25% in a season in which he was a full-time starter—it might be prudent to see if you can trade Suarez in a deal for another pitcher on this list like Skubal, Wheeler or Rodriguez.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Ben Lively.
Lively has struggled to miss bats at an above-average rate this season, posting a 19.2% whiff rate and a 21.1% strikeout rate. Both metrics rank in the 39th percentile or lower league-wide.
The 32-year-old has pitched to a 3.57 ERA in 93.1 innings, but with a .272 BABIP and a 4.48 FIP, there’s probably some statistical regression on the horizon. Use the fact that he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts to help find a trade that helps you add a pitcher with better underlying metrics.
Quality Starts (QS)
Leaders
Of Note: Cole Ragans.
Is Ragans a top-10 fantasy pitcher the rest of the way? He’s sure pitching that way. Since May 22, Ragans has struck out at least seven batters in seven of his 11 starts. During those 11 starts he’s also allowed more than three earned runs just once and reached the six inning mark nine times.
All told, the veteran is sporting a 2.84 ERA and a 2.89 FIP in 66.2 innings since May 22, striking out 82 batters while giving up just 22 walks and six home runs.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Michael Wacha.
Since allowing nine hits, seven earned runs, and a walk in 3.2 innings at home against the Texas Rangers on May 4, Wacha quietly logged a 2.30 ERA and a 3.38 FIP in his next 10 starts, winning six of them and logging 54 strikeouts, 18 walks, and five home runs allowed in 58.2 innings in the process. He surrendered more than two earned runs in a start just once in that span and looks like one of fantasy’s more underrated starters at the moment.
What’s more, it hasn’t just been that start. Wacha is sporting a 3.55 ERA and a 3.56 FIP in his first 96.1 innings. He’s very much worth adding in fantasy leagues of all sizes, especially considering the 34% rostered rate seems likely to steadily climb moving forward.
Saves (SV)
Leaders
Of Note: Kyle Finnegan.
It’s an unchanged top three from last week, with Helsley, Clase, and Finnegan still leading the way. The latter stands out as one of the many names to watch ahead of the upcoming trade deadline.
Finnegan has dominated the save chances in Washington but has also struggled mightily in terms of surrendering hard contact. His overall numbers are solid enough, but are they effective enough to assure him a closing role on a contending team (if he’s traded)? That’s the question.
As of now, the answer might be leaning towards a “no,” though that’s purely speculative on my part. At any rate, staying in Washington would be extremely beneficial for the veteran’s fantasy upside the rest of the way. If he stays with the Nationals, expect him to stay in and around the top three or five of this table between now and the end of the regular season.
If he’s traded to a contender, however, that might be a different story.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Daniel Hudson.
Don’t look now, but Daniel Hudson might be the favorite for saves in the Dodgers bullpen at the moment. Or, at least it looks that way purely from the outside looking in. Hudson finished last week with saves in his last three appearances. Furthermore, Evan Phillips has logged a 6.23 ERA, a 5.97 FIP, and six saves in 19 appearances since returning from the injured list in early June.
It remains to be seen if the former will continue to close games with regularity. But with Phillips’ recent struggles (and even without them really), Hudson qualifies as a must-add reliever for fantasy managers at the moment.
WHIP
Leaders
Of Note: Ronel Blanco.
After the first few starts of the year (in which he allowed no earned runs in his first 15 innings), Blanco was one of fantasy baseball’s best waiver-wire additions. And since then, the positive momentum really hasn’t stopped.
Blanco has yet to allow more than four earned runs in a start over the course of 19 starts and has given up three runs or fewer in 16 of those 19 starts. Sure, there might be a bit of regression coming, what with a 4.39 FIP looming over a 2.75 ERA, not to mention a .185 BABIP. But with nine pitcher wins so far, Blanco should continue to be a viable fantasy rotation option in most leagues.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Tobias Myers.
Fun fact, Myers has allowed one earned run or fewer in eight of his last 12 outings this season. Sporting a 3.14 ERA and a 4.17 FIP in 77.1 innings for the Brewers this year, the 25-year-old right-hander has established himself as a quality rotation option for fantasy managers in deeper leagues.
As long as he’s starting games for the first-place Milwaukee Brewers, he should continue to be just that. Though it’s worth noting that Myers could be worth a look as a streaming option for fantasy managers, regardless of format, in the next few weeks. Assuming the Brewers’ rotation continues as scheduled and uninterrupted, Myers will get the Marlins at home and the Nationals on the road in his next two starts. You’ll want him in your lineup for both games.
Probably worth noting that Solano has started only three of the Padres’ last 10 games since Bogaerts came off the IL.