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Tuesday’s evening DFS slate offers a contrasting blend of star and scrub pitchers. Those who forgo the studs in order to fully invest in a juicy Rockies-Padres matchup may have to take a walk on the wild side.
Luckily there are avenues for affordable Coors Field exposure. Even the contest’s top star is reasonably priced considering the circumstances. Let’s run down Tuesday’s top FantasyDraft plays for the evening action starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Top SP: Jacob deGrom, NYM ($23,700) at MIA
Will this be the night I turn on a Mets game and don’t inquire about the identity of this short-haired newcomer on the mound? Probably not. It’s going to take me until August to recognize Jacob deGrom without his long locks, but the results look the same. Although he didn’t have his best stuff last week, he has left each of his first two outings with one earned run allowed while cumulatively collecting a dozen strikeouts over 11.2 innings. In a stunning turn, Miami’s offense has suffered from trading Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich. Having hit three home runs in nine games, the Marlins especially don’t pose much of a power threat inside their spacious home park. Chris Sale and Luis Severino will hinder the other’s chances of a win while each facing a potent lineup, and the matchup gives deGrom the edge over Stephen Strasburg despite the additional cost.
Honorable Mention: Stephen Strasubrg, WAS ($21,200) vs. ATL
Value SP: Sean Manaea, OAK ($15,100) at LAD
Patrick Corbin holds more clout as a red-hot starter competing against an NL West squad (Giants) inside a favorable pitcher’s park. He also costs more than Aaron Nola and is still likely to draw more investors following his one-hit, 12-strikeout gem against the Dodgers. Let’s instead see if Sean Manaea can replicate that success against the same opponent, who have hit .213/.285/.293 with a .260 wOBA through nine games. A lineup led by Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager especially misses Justin Turner against lefties. Manaea has opened the season strong with two runs and one walk allowed over 15.1 innings with 11 punchouts and first-pitch strikes to 36 of 53 batters faced. Oakland’s starter also gets to face the opposing pitcher for a change in a roomy NL ballpark.
Honorable Mentions: Patrick Corbin, ARI ($18,400) at SF; Aaron Nola, PHI ($16,300) vs. CIN
INF Nolan Arenado ($10,700) vs. SD (LHP Joey Lucchesi)
It’s Nolan Arenado. At Coors. Against a lefty. A relatively untested lefty in Joey Lucchesi. While the rookie blanked the Rockies over five innings in his second career start, the switched venues will make a major difference. Arenado entered Monday night wielding a career .400 wOBA at home and .401 wOBA against southpaws, so he’s an obvious choice when a vulnerable one stumbles into town. A $10,700 price tag isn’t cheap, but it doesn’t fully account for the perfect confluence of events. Lock in Arenado before considering Ian Desmond ($9,700), Trevor Story ($9,400), and Chris Iannetta ($8,300) for a full Rockies stack.
Honorable Mentions: Bryce Harper, WAS ($10,700) vs. ATL (Mike Foltynewicz); Yoenis Cespedes, NYM ($9,400) at MIA (Caleb Smith)
OF Marcell Ozuna, STL ($7,500) vs. MIL (LHP Brent Suter)
Jose Martinez might have demanded this spot if not for leaving last night’s game with an apparent injury. There are still plenty of Cardinals hitters to utilize against Brent Suter, a mid-80s throwing southpaw who has already coughed up eight runs in 10 innings. The entire outfield comes at a discount, but Marcell Ozuna at just $7,500 is the most eye-popping bargain. While the 27-year-old outfielder generated 34 of his 37 home runs against right-handed pitchers last season, he’s still a career .297/.347/.489 hitter against lefties. His zero walks to 14 strikeouts is certainly ugly, but that’s why he isn’t $8,500 or more instead. Tommy Pham ($6,900) and Dexter Fowler ($5,900) also make a cheap St. Louis stack for gamers willing to turn slow starts into buying opportunities.
Honorable Mentions: Jean Segura ($7,500) and Mitch Haniger ($7,400), SEA at KC (Eric Skoglund); Adrian Beltre, TEX ($7,000) vs. LAA (Tyler Skaggs)
Value: INF Wilmer Flores, NYM ($5,400) at MIA (LHP Caleb Smith)
As a Mets fan who wrote an ode to Wilmer Flores to the tune of the Friends theme song last month, I’m a bit biased. While Adrian Gonzalez’s hot start and Michael Conforto’s speedy recovery leaves the 26-year-old infielder mostly stuck in a reserve role, he should start on Tuesday. After all, he’s a career .271/.316/.515 hitter against lefties. Miami’s probable starter, Caleb Smith, is a lefty who has relinquished 46 baserunners (27 hits, 19 walks), five homers and 20 runs in 27 career innings. Because he has one hit–and two walks, which is somewhat noticeable because of his career 4.9 % walk rate–in 13 plate appearances this season, Flores comes dirt cheap on a night where it’s imperative to find inexpensive hitting to accompany Arenado and an ace.
Honorable Mention: Lucas Duda, KC ($5,600) at SEA (Felix Hernandez)
Stack: Padres at Rockies (LHP Tyler Anderson)
Tyler Anderson has fared much better at Coors Field (3.39 ERA) than on the road (5.34 ERA) during his career. Maybe that’s why FantasyDraft isn’t charging a steep Coors tax on San Diego hitters. Another possible explanation: They’re the Padres. Oh well, this is still Colorado. As much as he’s struggling (6-for-40) to start 2018, Manuel Margot is too tempting to pass at $7,500 if he gets the leadoff assignment. Hunter Renfroe, who owns a career .438 wOBA against southpaws, is available for the same going rate. For $300 less, Jose Pirela can fill an infield or outfield slot after opening the series with his second three-hit game in the last four days. Playing a left-handed hitter against a lefty is an obvious DFS no-no, but Eric Hosmer isn’t completely off the table at $8,000. He held his own (.284/.327/.433 against southpaws last year, and Anderson lasted six innings or more in just five of last year’s 15 starts.
Honorable Mentions: Rockies vs. Padres (Lucchesi); Mariners at Royals (Skoglund); Mets at Marlins (Smith)
