Kicking off our annual division previews, the NL East comes up as one of the strongest groups in all of baseball, with three teams that fancy themselves as World Series contenders. In fact, this is the only division in the game with three squads projected to win at least 85 games. On the other hand, the division is rounded out by a team barely emerging from a rebuild and another one on the cusp of a rough season in the early stages of a makeover.
With clear goals that are yet to separate in nature, the East should provide high drama from the get-go. With big markets and bigger egos in play, along with aggressive front offices and generous budgets, we can expect a season full of headlines and a close look at the standings, as even a slow start can derail the hopes of the contenders, while the bottom-feeders will certainly try to play spoiler time and again.
Even as the so-called East Coast bias had always appeared more suited for the American League, in 2025, we will probably see a bigger focus on the NL side. Before that happens, let’s take a look at how each team looks towards the new season.
#5 – Miami Marlins – 2024 Record: 62-100 – 2025 Projection: 71-91
Just when it looked like the Marlins were about to become a respectable, up-and-coming franchise following a surprise playoff appearance in 2023, they have reverted to their old, confounding ways. Look no further than their projected Opening Day lineup, which is full of players that would have a hard time being rostered in a 16-team NL-only fantasy league. GM Peter Bendix has been open about his effort to start all over, so we can at least commend him for featuring an offense that averages well below two seasons of MLB experience, but being young doesn’t always translate to being exciting.
Outside of the serviceable double-play combo of Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez, Miami will likely have a hard time getting on base and scoring runs in almost every game. While that has been the identity of this franchise over the past decade, 2025 could get really rough in that regard, with no clear in-house options to provide a meaningful spark. Trading almost all of its major-league talent has meant that the Marlins have a treasure trove of prospects, but their farm system is considered unimpressive by most experts, as they are probably a couple of seasons away from graduating anyone of star pedigree.
Maybe the biggest storyline for this team will be how former NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara returns from his lengthy absence. If he can regain that sort of magic, his cheap contract and multiple years of team control could become the most coveted asset around the trade deadline, with a trade that has the power to accelerate Miami’s rebuild. Alcantara is still only 29 and projected to have a solid season, while a couple of his rotation mates, such as Ryan Weathers and Max Meyer, could take a leap forward in their development and help the team to at least a few low-scoring wins.
Miami’s pitching can be the difference between a White-Sox-level disaster and simply a bad season, but it is undeniable that the Marlins will be one of the worst (and saddest) teams in the sport. In recent seasons, we have seen how a lopsided division can be decided by how the minnows put up a fight against the big boys, and so the Marlins can at least play a significant role within their own division. If and when Alcantara leaves, the franchise will become almost bereft of recognizable talent, making their (few, traumatized) fans yearn for the halcyon days of 2023.
#4 – Washington Nationals – 2024 Record: 71-91 – 2025 Projection: 73-89
For the better part of last spring, the Nationals flirted with .500 and a surprise run towards relevancy, topping at a 38-39 mark in late June. It was all downhill from there, with a 6-14 run before the All-Star break that derailed any playoff hopes. At the same time, that early form at least showed that the team has a plan and is sticking to it, as ownership has shown faith in Mike Rizzo and Davey Martinez to bring Washington back to NL East supremacy. In that regard, 2025 now becomes a sneaky crucial season in the multi-year rebuild that essentially began in 2020.
While that scenario presented an opportunity for the Nationals to be aggressive in this offseason, they almost sat out free agency entirely and are instead trusting their flawed but talented core to deliver on their promise. When a team deliberately signs Paul DeJong to be their starting shortstop, it can be hard to see how that translates to winning baseball games, but the Nationals are probably seeing this as the season in which they hover around .500 for a full year following two straight 71-win campaigns.
For that, Year 3 of the CJ Abrams–Luis García Jr.–Keibert Ruiz triumvirate needs to find consistency, as all of them have shown flashes but without the steady production that a contender requires. Despite their young age, they also need to become the blueprint for the other presumed future stars in Washington’s lineup, as Dylan Crews and James Wood made their long-awaited debuts in 2024 with mixed reviews. Wood, in particular, showed glimpses of his massive power and is projected to be the team’s best hitter, but consistency is also the goal for 2025.
Washington’s pitching is a clear matter for concern, especially knowing that Josiah Gray will be out for the season. MacKenzie Gore, much like his offensive counterparts, will try to become the true ace his prospect reports believed he could be. Even if that happens, the rest of the rotation is thin, to say the least, and the front office would probably try to improve it if the team finds itself in contention for a wild card.
In the end, unlike the Marlins, it seems that the Nationals are finally coming out of their long rebuild and are ready to be relevant again, but there are still many ifs in play to consider it a fait accompli. While it seems difficult to become a breakout team in the East and fight for a playoff spot, sniffing 81 wins would be considered a major win for this franchise and give it a new perspective toward 2026.
#3 – New York Mets – 2024 Record: 89-73 – 2025 Projection: 86-76
While the days of #LOLMets appear to be over (for now), New York is now entering an era of high expectations that come with enormous pressure. While the ire of most baseball fans has fallen on the rich Dodgers, the Mets’ brazen attempt to buy their way into baseball’s elite is not so far behind, and that means that even small losing streaks will be magnified, and anything short of a pennant will be questioned. This is tough for a team that is not even projected to win its own division, but it is probably what owner Steve Cohen wanted when he bought the team.
In that regard, the Juan Soto signing was a stroke of brilliance but probably also a major case of style over substance, as the Mets are now projected to win fewer games than last season despite adding arguably the best pure hitter in the game. While a deep-pocketed front office with more pause would have probably analyzed the full roster and spread that money around for two or three quality starters, the Mets now operate in a different universe, and adding a superstar like Soto was a privilege that only a few franchises could afford, starting rotation be damned.
The glass-half-full approach for this team says that Soto will lead an explosive offensive to plenty of high-scoring wins, with the Mets challenging for 90+ wins and a deep playoff run. On the other hand, the good karma of OMG/Grimace can only go so far, and there is also a scenario in which New York battles a feisty Washington club for fourth place in the East, with plenty of tabloid fodder around the Big Apple. The re-signing of Pete Alonso gives the Mets a fearful top of the lineup, albeit with a top-heavy approach that will probably be exploited by talented pitching staffs.
The ugly side of a thin pitching staff is already rearing its head, as Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas Jr. will start the season on the IL, giving Kodai Senga added pressure to regain his 2023 ace form. The rest of the rotation includes the “Clay Holmes is now a starter” experiment and the uninspiring trio of Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning, and David Peterson, all of whom are back-end hurlers at this point. The front office would probably be aggressive in trying to improve mid-season with trades, but the staff as a whole still looks way behind some of their NL rivals.
With the goodwill of a surprising playoff run and the Soto addition, Queens will be buzzing and hoping that the Mets will finally become a steady contender, despite all the red flags around this roster. In many ways, Senga’s recovery will play an out-sized role in the early part of the season, while the health of Manaea, in particular, will be closely monitored. If the team cannot hold a steady one-two punch at the top of the rotation, no amount of Soto Shuffles will be enough to carry this franchise in 2025.
#2 – Philadelphia Phillies – 2024 Record: 95-67 – 2025 Projection: 87-75
The Phillies and their fans must feel like they are on a long and cruel episode of the Twilight Zone. On one hand, they have improved in the win column for three straight seasons, culminating with a 95-win campaign that included their first division title since 2011. On the other, each of said seasons culminated with a playoff exit that was more discouraging than the last, starting with an understandable World Series defeat, followed by a shocking NLCS exit, and then a depressing NLDS loss to a division rival. This has meant that Philadelphia has become one of the most fun and interesting teams in the regular season, followed by inevitable October dread.
Adding to this sense of urgency, there is no denying that this roster is getting old, and 2025 may become the proverbial last dance. Virtually all of Philly’s stars are on the wrong side of 30, and this type of top-heavy team is only a couple of injuries away from fading fast. However, unlike their foes in Queens, who may have youth on their side, the Phillies can boast that they should have an answer for any challenge that comes their way in 2025, with such a high floor in their roster that not even the mightiest rain would flood their well-built house.
When the likes of J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner showed signs of decline in 2024, complementary pieces such as Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm broke out to keep everything afloat, and the 2025 version of the Phillies should be able to withstand the inevitable cold spells of its veterans. Outside of the uni-dimensional bat of Nick Castellanos, the lineup is full of good-to-great hitters, even including the inspired addition of bounce-back candidate Max Kepler. The concern for Philadelphia comes if several pieces struggle and/or become injured at the same time, as the bench is thin and the farm system is middling, but the pitching should at least keep the team competitive in any game.
The emergence of Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez as above-average pitchers to complement Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler gives Philly arguably the best rotation in baseball, with the addition of the enigmatic Jesús Luzardo serving as one of the best high-reward transactions of the offseason. If anything, having such a rich staff will prevent the Phillies from having long losing streaks, even as the bullpen is no guarantee. Jordan Romano used to be one of the best closers in the AL, but injuries derailed his final season in Toronto, making him a legitimate question mark for a team that has tried to have an answer in every position.
In the end, the Phillies appear resolute in trying again to finally destroy their postseason ghosts, and 2025 is crucial in that mission. Considering their bloated payroll and commitments, they rank among the ultimate win-now franchises in the game but appear to have the vision and roster to back it up. Even if they again capitulate under the bright lights of October, at least they remain must-see TV during the summer.
#1 – Atlanta – 2024 Record: 89-73 – 2025 Projection: 93-69
Following a string of six straight division titles, Atlanta finally fell to second place in 2024, albeit under very understandable circumstances. After losing their best position player and best pitcher to serious injuries, the team still managed to win 89 games and a wild card, and their quick playoff exit was probably expected. To start 2025, they still will be without said stars, as Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider still face some roadblocks before their full recovery, but Atlanta seems again poised to withstand their absence and thrive in a tough division.
The emergence of Austin Riley as one of the best hitters in baseball and Marcell Ozuna defying Father Time rounds out perfectly with the more athletic types around Atlanta’s lineup, especially if Michael Harris II can leave 2024’s inconsistency behind. The ever-reliable Matt Olson should provide his usual combination of patience and power, while Ozzie Albies appears to be back at full strength following an injury scare of his own. Atlanta decided to take a flier on Jurickson Profar’s breakout and appears set on trusting non-roster invitee Drake Baldwin to be their Opening Day catcher, following the untimely rib injury suffered by starter Sean Murphy. Add it all up, and the offense is easily a top-half unit, with the potential of being elite when Acuña and Murphy return.
A similar tale can be told for the rotation, as the upcoming return of Strider would be the icing on the cake for a staff that is versatile and experienced. Losing Max Fried to free agency hurts, but not as much when you already have a couple of homegrown options like Ian Anderson and Spencer Schwellenbach, not to mention the reigning Cy Young winner to headline your rotation. Of course, trusting a full season of health for Chris Sale is tough, and that may be the X factor in such a tough division. With Strider available to start ramping up in spring training, it is easy to be bullish about this team.
Unlike the Phillies, whose window of contention is close to shutting down, or the Mets, who are still forging an identity, Atlanta has the experience of success and also knows they have the tools to contend for a long time. This is why last season’s letdown was seen as only that, and a quick turnaround is not only likely but also expected. The battle for the division will be fierce, and any series between the three top dogs has the potential to be crucial by season’s end. If Atlanta can have its full roster sooner rather than later, they remain the team to beat.
