Welcome back to Week 3 of our Patience or Panic series, where we profile three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their poor performance. I won’t take any early victory laps, but I am happy to report that my first three predictions have aged well in the last two weeks. Rafael Devers has gone on a tear that got him back close to the league average batting line, Dylan Crews has continued to slump, and Bailey Ober has thrown 10 innings and allowed two earned runs. Now, I move on to three players who have had even longer stretches of poor performance to start the season. All stats are through the games of Monday, April 14. Let us know in the comments what players you would like to see us focus on in the future!
Chris Sale, SP, ATL
The reigning NL Cy Young winner has gotten off to a rocky start in his second year with Atlanta. Through 19 IP, Sale is 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. He has struck out 24 batters, the lone bright spot on his ledger thus far. The first thing I noticed when digging deeper into Sale’s struggles is the quality of the offenses he has faced. All four of his opponents (the Padres, Dodgers, Phillies, and Rays) rank 16th or higher in wRC+ thus far in 2025. I would argue that all of them but the Rays were considered to be good, if not elite, offenses heading into the season. That said, Sale is not a pitcher that we expect to be effective only against weaker opponents. Many managers, myself included, drafted him with the expectation that he would be the ace of their staff.
When we look under the hood and compare Sale’s 2024 to 2025 so far, there are some salient takeaways. His strikeout rate has dropped by almost five percentage points, but his swinging strike rate has increased slightly. Typically, these numbers move in the same direction, and a pitcher’s strikeout rate is usually between 2 to 2.25 times their swinging strike rate. This rule doesn’t always hold, but it’s a good rule of thumb. It was true last year for Sale, but his strikeout rate is lagging behind this year, even as he is getting significantly more swings outside of the zone. When considering this, alongside Sale’s sky-high BABIP and decreased PLV, it seems like he has similar stuff to last year but is failing to execute as sharply. His 7.3% mistake percentage (17th percentile) supports this; Sale’s career average is 4.8%.
Verdict: Patience. I’m not ready to sound the alarm on Sale. The numbers above demonstrate that the swing-and-miss stuff is still there, and a 0.415 BABIP is far from sustainable, given that the league average through April 13 was 0.281. Sale’s 3.29 xFIP is a better indication of how he has pitched. It would be foolish to expect Sale to repeat (or even challenge) last year’s Cy Young campaign in which he struck out 225 batters over 177.2 IP with a 2.38 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. While the skills may have regressed a bit, an ERA in the low 3.00s and close to 200 strikeouts is a reasonable expectation. Sale should also be a good source of wins if Atlanta can figure it out! I would continue to start him confidently and even buy low in places where managers are valuing him as a fringe top-30 SP. Lastly, keep an eye on the fastball velocity, which has declined a bit this year (94.8 MPH vs. 94.1 MPH). That small drop isn’t concerning, especially because Sale sat 96.2 MPH against Tampa, but it would be if he dipped to 93.
Willson Contreras, C, STL
Before going yard on Sunday, Contreras had been one of baseball’s worst hitters. Now, he’s merely terrible! In 62 PA, Contreras has slashed .164/.215/.262 (39 wRC+) with 7 R, 1 HR, 7 RBI, and 1 SB. He was one of my favorite catcher targets because he was transitioning to a full-time 1B/DH role for the Cardinals, allowing him to play every day and provide a unique level of volume for the position. Of course, this volume is only useful when quality accompanies it. Contreras has likely been weighing down your team’s ratios like an anvil. I don’t think anyone could have predicted struggles to this extent, given that Contreras was excellent (140 wRC+) in an injury-shortened season last year and has never had a below-average offensive season in terms of wRC+.
The chart above compares some of Willson’s plate discipline and contact stats in 2024 and 2025 to the league average. Contreras has always had a whiff-heavy approach that leads to strikeouts, but his plate discipline has cratered this year, and his walk rate along with it. This trend is concerning, to say the least, as very few hitters can succeed with well below-average plate discipline and contact ability. You need premium pop to do that, and while Contreras has some juice (career .202 ISO), it’s not top tier.
Verdict: Patience (mostly). As with Devers a couple of weeks ago, I am betting on the long-term track record with Contreras here, even though it looks ugly under the hood. I do have some concerns about the long-term viability of his plate approach, as aggressive hitters with poor contact skills rarely age well, but I don’t think the falloff is coming in his age-33 season. I wouldn’t buy low on Contreras unless the offer is too good to refuse, but he should be held in all formats aside from the shallowest one-catcher leagues.
Dylan Cease, SP, SDP
Cease is another highly drafted SP who has stumbled out of the gate. In his first four starts (20.1 IP), Cease is 1-1 with a 6.64 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts. The 6.64 mark places Cease third-worst in ERA among qualified starters, ahead of only Tanner Houck and Zack Littell. Like Sale, Cease hasn’t faced any terrible offenses. He’s gotten Atlanta, the Cubs, and Cleveland at home and was roughed up big time in Sacramento against the A’s (4 IP, 9 ER). It will be some time before we know just how hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park is, but it seems to be a difficult place to pitch so far.
Cease was excellent last season, going 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 224 Ks. In comparing his core skills this year to the 2024 campaign, not much has changed. The strikeout rate has dropped a couple of percentage points, which is backed up by the lower swinging strike rate, but the walk rate has also ticked down, so that’s not a major concern. Cease continues to get swings outside of the zone at a slightly above average rate and has maintained his velocity. The PLV and ERA estimators remain strong; only xFIP is shown here, but all of his estimators (xERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, PLA, etc.) are at 3.50 or below. It appears that his struggles so far are mostly the product of bad batted ball luck, with his BABIP allowed at 0.379 (0.292 career average) and a 53.2% LOB% (8th percentile, 73% career).
Verdict: Patience. I have very little concern about Cease at this point, as there are no obvious changes in his profile. Nick has dropped him from 11th to 15th on The List, but he maintains the AGA (Aces Gonna Ace) label. Cease was decent on Monday in a tough matchup against the Cubs (5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks) and will get the chance to build on that in Houston this weekend. The NL West is a tough division, but Petco is a good park to pitch in, and softer matchups should be on the horizon. Cease fits the definition of what we call a TIARA here at Pitcher List, meaning that he should Turn It Around Right Away.
