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Potential Breakout Players in Points Leagues

These guys are on the rise.

One of the more useful tools for points leagues on the Yahoo fantasy baseball site is the ability to filter the free agent pool by recent ranking statistics, including ‘Season Stats – Last 7 Days (Total)’ and ‘Season Stats – Last 14 Days (Total)’.

            

These filters can help do a lot of the homework for you by automatically supplying a list of available players who are currently producing, but the trick then becomes deciphering which potential breakouts are real and which are likely to just be nothing more than a brief hot streak. That’s when digging back into the metrics comes into play, but first and foremost, any search for a potential ongoing breakout should begin by using these filters. Especially when a name is popping up at the top of multiple time periods, it is worth taking a deeper look at them.

 

Noelvi Marte

Last 7 Days Rank: 1st ; Last 14 Days Rank: 19th ; 30% Rostered (Yahoo)

 

Recent-ranking statistics are also located in the ‘Season Stats’ portion of each player’s profile when you click on their name. For example, starting off with a name likely to be featured in a lot of waiver wire articles this week (for good reason), Noelvi Marte just had an incredible week that rocketed him from being a minor league call-up for the Cincinnati Reds to a top points league player for Week 4.

 

 

The well-rounded nature of his skill set makes him more intriguing than a lot of other players who seem to get scorching hot out of nowhere. Marte is showing signs of a combination power/speed threat that could be a real difference maker, especially in points leagues. Across only 47 plate appearances so far, Marte has three home runs, four stolen bases, 15 RBI, and is batting for a .364 average. His xOBA of .442 ranks 13th among all qualifying hitters and his xAVG of .301 ranks 31st, while his sprint speed is in the 93rd percentile. Most importantly for points leagues that penalize punch outs, Marte is striking out at a very low clip with only two strikeouts in his last 20 at-bats.

The main piece in the 2022 trade that sent Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds to the Seattle Mariners, the Dominican-born Marte had high expectations when he was first called up by the Reds in August of 2023. He made good on those expectations by batting .316 with three home runs and six stolen bases in 35 games to close out the season, but things took a turn sideways before the 2024 season could even begin with it was announced that Marte would be suspended for 80 games due to testing positive for a performance enhancing substance. When he returned from suspension, he never looked like the same player from the previous year (.210 average in 66 games), leaving a lot of low-hanging fruit for fans to joke about the fact that he was now not using performance-enhancing drugs. The Reds optioned him to AAA to start the 2025 season, and it now looks like that may have helped Marte reset both his mind and his game. The aforementioned 93rd percentile sprint speed combined with the ability to tattoo a ball 433 feet makes for a very intriguing pickup, and Marte should not be left on any points league’s waiver wires this week, given the quality of at-bats he is currently putting together.

 

Gavin Lux 

Last 7 Days Rank: 32nd ; Last 14 Days Rank: 48th ; 26% Rostered (Yahoo)

 

Traded from the Dodgers to the Reds in the off-season for a Competitive Balance Round A pick and an outfield prospect (Mike Sorota), Lux appears to be settling in nicely in his new home away from the spotlight and pressures of Los Angeles. Batting .325 on the year (and .440 in the last seven days), Lux is showing elite plate discipline with a chase rate of only 16% that places him in the 99th percentile of the league for that metric. His walk rate is nearly just as impressive at 15.1% (90th percentile), and his Process+ rolling chart confirms that he has been making consistently good decisions at the plate of late.

A torn ACL cost Gavin Lux the entire 2023 season and was likely the reason for him getting off to a slow start in 2024. He picked up the pace in the second half of 2024, though, batting .304 with seven home runs over the last 61 games of the season, so there is now a pretty decent sample size showing Lux to be an above .300 hitter with his current approach. His counting stats may not end up being enough to rank high in category leagues, but he is stringing together plenty of points at the moment and is worth adding in place of any utility players currently on your cut list.

 

Tim Tawa

Last 7 Days Rank: 30th ; Last 14 Days Rank: 61st ; 4% Rostered (Yahoo)

 

Tim Tawa has been the primary beneficiary of playing time after Arizona Diamondbacks‘ superstar Ketel Marte went down with an injury earlier this month, and Tawa has been replacing Marte’s power for the club in a way no one could have expected. A former 11th-round pick without a highly-touted prospect pedigree, Tawa is bursting onto the scene with an xOBA of .425 that ranks 19th among all qualifying batters and a walk rate of 16.3% that ranks 23rd. He is showing signs of a sustainable approach and one that has led to him doing serious damage when he hits the baseball. Though only collecting 9 hits in his last 36 at-bats for a .250 average over that span, six of those hits have been for extra bases and three have been home runs. Though not a very large sample size, Tawa’s Proccess+ rolling chart shows great power and decision-making metrics and signifies that his current production is sustainable.

It’s impossible to ignore the fact that Ketel Marte will eventually be back in the Diamondbacks lineup, and there is no clear path for playing time for Tawa once that occurs — but no timetable has yet been given for a rehab assignment for Marte, meaning his return is not imminent. Points at second base can be especially hard to come by, and Tawa could make for a useful stream right now at the very least if you’re dealing with lackluster production at that position. Unless you’re cutting somehow who you really feel could end up helping you down the stretch, it’s worth swapping out an unproductive utility player for Tawa right now while he is playing every day and producing.

 

 

Will Vest

Last 7 Days Rank:  233rd ; Last 14 Days Rank: 359th ; 13% Rostered (Yahoo)

 

This one isn’t as obvious based on the recent rankings, but Will Vest is dominating out of the Detroit Tigers‘ bullpen right now. He appears to have quietly taken over the role of closer from what was an open committee that included Tommy Kahnle, among others. Vest has now gotten the last three saves for the Tigers and also pitched the ninth inning recently in a 6-o win that did not qualify for a save. He is clearly becoming manager A.J. Hinch’s preferred option to end ball games, and Vest’s stats and underlying metrics make it easy to see why.

Will Vest Impressive Stats

Vest brings the heat with a four-seamer that averages almost 97 mph, putting it in the 83rd percentile for relievers. He mixes in excellent sliders (5.52 PLV, 89th percentile) and sinkers (5.45 PLV, 84th percentile) as secondaries to complement the heater and prevent batters from sitting too hard on the fastball, but as can be seen here, he has no trouble putting batters away with his primary pitch.  The 29-year-old is in the midst of an eleven-inning scoreless streak, having not surrendered a run since March 28 when Mookie Betts got him for a solo home run. That is still the only blemish on an otherwise extremely impressive early-season resume for Vest. The Tigers are playing very good baseball at the moment, getting consistently good pitching and timely hitting, and winning a lot of close games. Vest looks geared up to benefit from all of that positive momentum and could really start piling up the saves (and points) sooner rather than later. Grab him now before the Vest stock really starts to take off.

 

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Michael Hanlon

Michael is a Staff Writer here at Pitcher List. He currently lives in the Metro Detroit area after being born and raised a passionate Yankees fan in New Jersey. The MLB Extra Innings channels are a must every season in his house. Michael has a master's degree in Environmental Science from Columbia University, and is also an unofficial cat whisperer, spending much of his free time socializing scared cats at a local shelter.

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