Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Rhett Lowder (CIN) vs HOU (ND) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 82 pitches.
The second start for Rhett Lowder was no easy task. His home park in Cinncinati pries upon pitchers attempting to limit the longball, while the dangerous Astros glared from the opposing dugout. To our surprise, Lowder produced a goose egg against the mighty foe, returning 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 82 pitches and now with an easier schedule ahead, it may seem that Lowder could provide value to those in deeper leagues, struggling to find productive innings.
I have to preach caution. Watching Lowder did not inspire excitement nor confidence that he’d produce outs consistently. He splits his fastballs between four-seamers and sinkers from 92-95 mph and neither come with remarkable precision or electricity. In fact, his first two batters faced swatted the sinker and normally would have collected a pair of hits, but Koufax was smiling and ensured they found gloves.
Meanwhile, his slider and changeup aren’t secondaries to depend on regularly. Lowder’s slider can have solid bite and comes with a Dancing With The Disco approach, but isn’t the stellar breaker to reach into his backpocket for. Its clear the slowball is saved for LHB, but that changeup is still lacking polish to become a pitch that haunts batters.
Lowder’s hype as the 7th overall pick in 2023’s draft raises a larger question about prospect pitchers: How much of their hype is in their current skill set vs. their ceiling and projected growth? That’s a question to dive into another time and while I absolutely want to give praise for a rookie just scratching the surface of professional baseball, he’s not the type of arm to trust in September for fantasy squads.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Martín Pérez (SDP) vs DET (ND) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.
Well alright, I guess he was capable of taking advantage of this stream after all. Cutter wasn’t great and his sinker was more hittable than usual, but the changeup cleaned things up nicely as the Tigers were kind in their passivity toward those sinkers. Let it ride against the Giants next, even if I’m still a little tepid on Pérez’s current feel.
Hunter Brown (HOU) @ CIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 97 pitches.
Another day, another approach, and another way to succeed. Brown confounds me with his mercurial mix. Thursday gave us 45% sinkers, which returned contact on 50% thrown, yet returned just three hits total. Wait, just one hit not on his sinker? Okay, fair. A low, hittable 0-0 four-seamer. And yes, that means his secondaries went 0/33 hits allowed (albeit with a 55% strike rate), which was a product of batters turning their focus to heaters over the breakers and change. It’ll continue to unnerve me, but 95-98 mph heaters is always a good thing, especially if they carry you through games. I can’t help but wonder if we’ll see a huge step forward next year as Brown finds more consistency in those secondaries. You can’t teach velocity. Okay, you can, but yeah, that kind of velo that can actually be controlled inside the zone (I’m looking at you ECab, Bobby, and Boyle) is a rare commodity.
Ranger Suárez (PHI) @ MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches.
Uhhhhh, Ranger sat two ticks down on everything. At least he was able to land armside with most things and surprise up-and-armside when he wanted to, but hot dang this is scary.
Austin Gomber (COL) @ ATL (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
Whaaaaaaaa. The Gold Star today goes to Gomber (sorry Rhett) as he was able to fill up the zone with all four pitches and stride through the eighth frame. No, I don’t buy that his curve and slider will return a 22% SwStr each moving forward, nor that his 89/90 mph four-seamer is good enough. But hey, this was cool!
Cody Bradford (TEX) vs LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.
His velocity was down to just 88/89 mph with understandable relative spin drops on everything, which is a bit worrisome, but there was some velocity drop for Jack on the other side today and I do wonder if there was something effecting either the pitchers or the readings. Anyway, the man with three first names came through even without the best precision on the heater as it got more of the zone than usual. Gotta love him and his great schedule rest of the way. What a stupid good pickup he has been.
Blake Snell (SFG) vs ARI (ND) – 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 42 pitches.
No injury, don’t worry. He simply had a laborious first frame and the Giants did the smart thing and didn’t force him to get hurt. Seriously, any pitcher that throws 40 pitches in the first demands to be taken out. It was a product of failing to land his curve in the zone + four-seamers that just missed the plate. Let’s forget this happened.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) @ SFG (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
Yesssss. I wonder if you were like me and able to stream Kelly this week, who had his classic east-west command, landing changeups gloveside effortlessly, then sitting gloveside with cutters and sinkers (92/93 mph). It could be enough to warrant a hold for Texas next (Coors after the following Monday, blegh), but I’m personally turning to a weekend streamer instead. That outing isn’t a lock, even if I’m encouraged by Kelly’s feel + Arizona defense + Win opportunity.
Reynaldo López (ATL) vs COL (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 91 pitches.
That’s our man. I can’t believe ReyLó got Gomber’d to leave this one without a Win. His four-seamer/slider combo is on point y’all and I’m absolutely stunned he’s been able to keep this up all year. 2.00 ERA in 121.2 IP is unreal.
Bryan Woo (SEA) @ OAK (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 88 pitches.
His fastball command was worse, but I love how he turned to the sweeper more often and was able to get a handful of whiffs and score 39% CSW across 20% usage. Give Woo consistent starts above 85 pitches and he’ll become Zack Wheeler. I’m serious. The fact of the matter is that I worry if his body is as sturdy as Wheeler’s long-term. We’ll find out.
Pablo López (MIN) @ TBR (W) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna ace with a Careful, Icarus. His final pitch was a fastball intended to be inside that leaked away and Diaz was late on it, poking it to right field for an RBI single. He had the right approach! So close. Anyway, PabLó hit 98.6 mph, his hardest pitch of the year, sitting nearly two ticks up on everything as he sat just under 97 mph, now returning a 2.38 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in his last twelve games. BELIEVE IN THE MAN.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) @ TEX (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 93 pitches.
The Jack of One Trade was back at it again with 80% sinkers and 50% strikes on his curve and he gave you a VPQS without a single strikeout. In other words, he gave you literally nothing of production in non-QS leagues (HAISTBMBWT?!) but at least you know the man is a QS consideration for those who need it. FWIW, the sinker command wasn’t as spectacular along the edges as I saw in previous games.
Casey Mize (DET) @ SDP (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 83 pitches.
I’m struggling to find something to latch onto with Mize. Maybe the fastball’s 95 mph velocity with nearly seven feet of extension? Thing is, he needs to spot those upstairs while hinting the vert of the spring and have a secondary to pair with it. The slider isn’t that right now. The splitter isn’t that. He doesn’t have a proper changeup or cutter. IT’S ALL BORING. I’m out until we see a complement or his fastball take another leap forward.
Bailey Falter (PIT) vs WSN (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 94 pitches.
An inning away from a VPQS, but hey! A Win! I’ll continue to beat the drum that Falter is closer to becoming a legit 12-teamer arm than it seems, but he needs a true changeup to get there. Send him to the Rays or something, they’ll figure it out. Don’t forget, he has 98th percentile extension, y’all. More extension generally equates to being able to get out in front to “turn over” a changeup better than others…but he held a sub 50% strike rate on his changeup last year and there’s obviously something impeding him as he scrapped the pitch in 2024.
Taj Bradley (TBR) vs MIN (L) – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 100 pitches.
A Golden Goal with a poor ERA sounds about right for Bradley. What’s interesting here is how the splitter took a major back seat for the four-seamer and cutter, though the BSB was alive an well. Just cutters taking the place for the splitter, mostly. We still saw 11/17 splitter strikes (sweet!), but the cutter took over with 11/37 whiffs and 59% CSW. That cutter wasn’t what allowed the three-run shot, you know. Very true, that was a terrible splitter down the pipe at 91 mph – maybe he wasn’t feeling it as much and leaned on the cutter instead. This can absolutely work if he has this pitch separation, but Bradley is awfully inconsistent game to game, earning him his lamented Cherry Bomb tag. Let’s hope he continues to be sweet like this without those longballs, yeah?
Adam Oller (MIA) vs PHI (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.
He was squeezed a bit, leading to disaster in the sixth where most of the damage came (Careful, Icarus) and I’m pretty impressed by Oller’s curve for yet another start. Does this mean…I’m legit considering streaming Oller for a two-step against the Pirates and Nationals next week. Are you Oll In? I guess I gotta be Oller nothing, right? LET’S DO IT Y’ALL.
Joey Estes (OAK) vs SEA (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 92 pitches.
Bleeeeegh. I saw this as a relatively safe stream against the lowly Mariners, but Estes had some of his worst four-seamer command, with a 55% strike rate and many foul balls – pitches that would normally return outs, not whiffs or hits…save for a meatball to Raleigh in the first for a two-run blast (why is it always Raleigh ruining SP nights in the first?). That meant he needed to get more out of his sweeper and slider, which allowed three hits on the day, and that’s your ball game. He may get the Mariners one more time to end the year in Seattle and while that could be worthwhile, I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Jake Irvin (WSN) @ PIT (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 87 pitches.
Okay, we’re done, yeah? Cool. Thanks for the mid-season awesomeness, Jake. I won’t forget it.
Game of the Day
Zebby Matthews vs. Cole Ragans – I want Zebby to rebound and watch Cole dominate without the dumb Careful, Icarus at the end.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)