Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers for the Plus Pitch Podcast, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Aaron Ashby left his start early with an oblique strain and should miss a significant amount of time. You have to feel for the guy.
The Brewers also signed Jose Quintana yesterday, adding much needed depth. With the timeline of Brandon Woodruff a bit in the air, Quintana should be in the rotation out of the gate, with a possible six-man if Woodruff is good to go.
The Rangers will put Jacob deGrom at the back of the rotation to start the year, helping him get a little extra rest before the beginning of the year. Plan accordingly as we begin to get an understanding of how rotations will fill out. And yes, it may mean deGrom’s absurd Win luck of old may finally come to an end.
Johan Oviedo was placed on the 60-day IL with a lat issue. He missed all of 2024 after undergoing TJS in December of 2023 and will likely be away from the majors until the summer.
Site News
We’re launching PL 11 in the upcoming days and we’ve outlined everything we’re working on and improved on the site inside this Twitter thread and this Bluesky thread.
Check out all the apps, a tease of the PL Fantasy Baseball Pro Dashboard, our new Live Draft Assistant, and so much more.
Now it’s super easy to see velo changes, movement changes (extra vert from Rodón!), extension, usage changes, locations, etc. It’s incredible, y’all. Get access via PL Pro at 15% off with code SPRINGISHERE
Expected Rotations By Team
Statcast Games – TV
SEA vs. CLE
NYM vs. MIA
NYY vs. PIT
CIN vs. MIL
Luis Castillo (SEA) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K. The velocity is still down -1.5 ticks while the slider has three inches less horizontal break at 2/3 ticks lower. That’s not good. At least the changeup and sinker have added 1-2 inches of ride…and the HAVAA is higher at 5.2 feet of extension…it all is so weird and I’m not touching Castillo. That doesn’t profile to be a good heater, the slider has less bite, and command is rarely his strong suit.
Luis L. Ortiz (CLE) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 2 K. Hey, that’s better than the absurdity from his last outing. 0/12 slider whiffs are a little annoying, though. Doesn’t seem like this has potential to be a big 12-teamer impact play, but a 15-teamer Toby? Sure.
Kodai Senga (NYM) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K. He’s down 1.5 ticks to 94/95 (not 96+), though this was a clear showcase of experimentation. Just one forkball and three cutters with sliders and sweepers featured eight times. I’m curious where it all ends up and I’d expect the velocity to ramp up over time. Still interested here.
David Peterson (NYM) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 5 K. 4/9 slider whiffs like it’s the good ole days. The changeup was terrible, though, with two meatballs to RHB. I wish his velocity got a little boost as his 7.1 feet of extension will always get me a little hyped, but I’ll live with 92/93 mph if that changeup can do more. He’s more real than the ADP is giving him credit.
Max Kranick (NYM) – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 3 K. 96 mph with 17.6″ vert at a somewhat middle-to-low arm slot is cool in my book. The sliders and sweepers look a bit unrefined movement and command wise (a bit all over the place), but that heater does seem like a solid offering…if he can hold it over more than 1.1 frames.
Max Fried (NYY) – 2.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 2 K. 94 mph matches last year’s mark, while your changeup wasn’t spotted terribly well to RHB. It’s the biggest area of potential growth for Fried in 2025 (save for his health) and I’m looking forward to seeing more of them next time out.
Bubba Chandler (PIT) – 0.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 K. Wow, I loved Bubba’s plot and sitting 98 mph, but the fella got bamboozled. Oh Baseball, never change. His 3d wOBAcon was just .270 for both the heater and slider, soooo yeah. Baseball.
Nick Lodolo (CIN) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 K. A few fastball mistakes in there make this look ugly, but I dig the changeup against RHB with solid curveballs per usual. This is Lodolo, y’all…Suitman whispers in my ear WHAT NOW. Oh. Dang. Two ticks down on the heaters? That makes sense and it actually makes me relieved? After all, it explains the results and we should expect that 92 mph heater to be closer to 94 mph as he ramps up.
Aaron Ashby (MIL) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 0 K. Ashby left this game early with an oblique strain. It’s so frustrating and I feel terribly for him. He’s gone through so much since his debut in 2021.
Statcast Games – No TV
DET vs. TOR
MIA vs. HOU
KC vs. TEX
CWS vs. ATH
AZ vs. CHC
Tarik Skubal (DET) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K. He’s dope and makes us feel dope.
José Berríos (TOR) – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 3 K. Nothing new here.
Max Meyer (MIA) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K. He’s still two ticks up at 96 mph and the slider is +2.5 ticks at 90.6 mph, which may be the bigger story, even if lost a little bit of horizontal bend. It’s now at cutter velocity with a sweeper at 86.5 mph and boy do I love that. He also spotted his sinker perfectly inside to RHB and I am SO IN.
Framber Valdez (HOU) – 1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 3 K. The cutter is not a thing. Sigh. The slider is at 83 mph and nothing of intrigue and his curveball that was the savior of 2024? It went 27% strikes. The reset button has been pressed. Let’s hope he finds it early.
Hayden Wesneski (HOU) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K. I’m not loving the overall command of Wesneski, though he went high four-seamers, sweepers generally away…? Sinkers along the edges, random cutters, it’s all kinda…there. I dunno, I’m finding myself less encouraged by Wesneski, who went 0/13 sweepers, but earned 3/10 whiffs on those high heaters. He doesn’t have anything else strong to back up the sweeper as the four-seamer really shouldn’t be a strong offering.
Daniel Lynch IV (KC) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 K. Still middling for Lynch, though I appreciate the added changeups to RHB + lean into sinkers inside to LHB. If that changeup can go 2/10 whiffs all the time against RHB and that velocity can be a little better than 92 mph (it’s not a good heater), then we’re talking. Otherwise, it’s not enough.
Noah Cameron (KC) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 3 K. He was down to 94 mph (not 95), though he sat 92 mph in Triple-A last season. The changeup is still a beast and he’s a strike thrower through-and-through. I’m still a fan once he gets the call, assuming the velocity doesn’t dip further.
Adrian Houser (TEX) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 K. Velocity is still up at 95 mph vs. the 93 mph we saw last. I’m still concerned about Mahle and his spot in the Rangers’ rotation and with Rocker looking meh, it could mean Houser and his newfound velocity takes over instead of Leiter. There’s AL-Only value there.
Sean Burke (CWS) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 1 K. Down to 94 mph (-1.2 ticks), though it looks like some of his four-seamers were misclassified and actually sinkers (I dig that inclusion!) He also located his breakers far worse than usual. Let’s lay low on Burke for a second.
Joey Estes (ATH) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 2 K. Same ole stuff for Estes, with stellar overall command that led to…mediocrity. Sounds about right.
Mitch Spence (ATH) – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K. Nooooooooo! The velocity fell back down to 92 mph…matching last year’s mark. Sigh. The cutter is 1.4 ticks up at least, but it’s not 94/95 mph. It’s 92 mph. UGH. I was so excited. Welp, he can still be good, just temper expectations to AL-Only leagues or streaming in 15-teamers.
Corbin Burnes (AZ) – 2.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 2 K. Oh dear, the cutter vertical break is back to 13″. Nope, don’t like that. I got hyped for Burnes last year after he found the drop once again (7″ of iHB) and last game was 11″. Now 13″ = less drop and more rise. We don’t want that. No wonder those cutters failed to land in loLoc% plenty here. Not gonna lie, if we see another start of high vert on the cutter, then I’m lowering him in my rankings. I don’t expect him to rebound without it.
Caleb Kilian (CHC) – 2.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 5 K. Wait, weren’t you demoted?! Suitman whispers into my ear Ohhh, the Cubs didn’t want the Sneks to see Taillon again before their meeting the first week of the season. Well I’m very thankful since we got Kilian data now. 96 mph heaters at 6.7 feet of extension and 17″ of vert isn’t quite the guy I fell for (I wanted seven feet of extension), but it’s solid and the cutter went 4/10 whiffs paired with a cool curve as well. The final line isn’t great – mistakes were made – but the stuff is still alive, y’all. Keep an eye on his early starts in Triple-A as he could fall into the Cubs rotation this year and make an impact.
No Statcast – TV
BAL vs. BOS
TB vs. ATL
LAA vs. COL
Charlie Morton (BAL) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K. Morton, do your thing. I hope it was fun.
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 2 K. A strikeout per inning is not the expectation you should have for Sugano.
Drew Rasmussen (TB) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 K. At least he’s at two frames, y’all. Show me three and I’ll believe you’re not a reliever.
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K. We may see AJSS involved this year, keep an eye on him with our Triple-A app for PL Pro users.
George Klassen (LAA) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Ayyy more Klassen! I’m sadly not super intrigued, but always fun to get a peek.
What To Watch Today On TV
SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotesGet morning updates to EVERY SP via my daily Plus Pitch Podcast AND SP Roundup article on the Pitcher List site.Walker Buehler – New approach? (no data)Jared Jones – GOOD SINKERS?Cristopher Sánchez – Cutter data?!?!Reynaldo López – SL for strikes?
— Nick Pollack (@nickpollack.pitcherlist.com) 2025-03-02T14:56:48.429Z