What’s up everybody!
I’m in the midst of releasing my annual pitch review series where I take a look back at the five best pitches of each pitch type from 2024, as ranked by PLV. Today, I’m taking a look at the five best fastballs from last year.
If you’d like a closer look at what this series is about, check out the first article in the series on the five best changeups of 2024, and also check out my five best curveballs of 2024 and the best cutters of 2024 as well. And if you’d like an in-depth primer on what PLV is and how it works, check it out here.
Also a quick note for this piece that’s different than years’ past, I’m grouping four-seam fastballs and sinkers together in this article as “fastballs” since they’re both under the same category.
Anyway, let’s dive into the five best fastballs of 2024!
5. George Kirby
George Kirby throws both a four-seamer and a sinker, but this is his sinker we’re talking about, which ranked ahead of his four-seamer in PLV and worked well last year.
Kirby had his third solid season in a row with a 3.53 ERA (which believe it or not was a career worst to this point), a 1.07 WHIP, and a 23% strikeout rate over 191 innings, and this sinker was a big part of his arsenal.
Kirby throws the sinker high and gloveside more than you might expect, using it as a backdoor pitch to righties and a jam pitch to lefties. It comes in around 96 MPH with a good bit of horizontal movement and is also a pitch Kirby used in two-strike counts just over a quarter of the time.
And the pitch worked too—it had a rock solid 34.1% ICR against it (good for 65th percentile among sinkers) and a .284 wOBA against it, and even got hitters to chase, posting a 32.2% chase rate, which is pretty darn good for a sinker.
Unfortunately as I’m sure you’re already aware, Kirby is slated to being the season on the IL because of shoulder inflammation, which is always a scary thing to hear for a pitcher. Hopefully he’ll be able to recover quickly and we’ll see him pitching again soon.
I don’t know that you could’ve asked for a better first season in the majors from Shota Imanaga, with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP with a 25.1% strikeout rate and a 4% walk rate in 173.1 innings.
Imanaga sort of takes the old school Kevin Gausman approach with a fastball/splitter combo that dominates most of his starts. The fastball isn’t especially fast, coming in at just 91.4 MPH on average, but it comes in pretty flat with a 1.4 degree height-adjusted VAA and most importantly, he throws it for strikes, with a 54.9% zone rate last year (79th percentile among fastballs). And even if hitters do make contact with it, they don’t do much with it, posting just a 38.3% ICR and .319 wOBA against the pitch last year.
And alongside that fastball is the splitter, which works great as a swing-and-miss pitch, posting a 50.1% chase rate, 32.4% CSW, and 27.3% swinging-strike rate last year. Imanaga also throws a sweeper that gets some swings and misses as well and works well as a third pitch with the fastball and splitter.
I don’t necessarily think Imanaga will repeat his incredible season from last year, but he’s absolutely a very good pitcher who should continue to be very good this season.
3. Alex Vesia
Having Alex Vesia on a list of the best fastballs in all of baseball might surprise you, but if you read last year’s version of this article, you’d remember that Vesia actually topped the list.
Vesia had a much better season last year than the year before, posting a 1.76 ERA out of the bullpen for the Dodgers in 66.1 innings with a 33.1% strikeout rate, and this fastball is a big reason why.
Vesia mainly employs a fastball/slider combo on the mound, throwing this fastball 63% of the time. The pitch only comes in at 93.4 MPH but it comes with a truly incredible amount of vert—19.7 inches to be exact, which is among the most vert any fastball in the entire league gets. And on top of that, it comes in at a good angle with a 1.2 degree height-adjusted VAA.
Vesia usually locates his fastball up in the zone (as he should given its shape) and typically armside, jamming up lefties and keeping the pitch away to righties. Vesia’s fastball is great at inducing weak contact, as opposing hitters had just a .286 wOBA and 35.1% ICR against the pitch last year and even gets a decent amount of chases with a 29.9% chase rate last year (which is high for a fastball).
Vesia’s fastball remained one of the best in the game last year and he posted a nice rebound season out of the bullpen too. Here’s hoping we can see more of the same.
2. Josh Hader
If you’ve been following Josh Hader’s career it should be no surprise that his sinker is one of the best in the game and ends up on this list.
After posting an incredible rebound season in 2023 with a 1.28 ERA over 56.1 innings for the Padres, Hader struggled a bit again last year, posting a 3.80 ERA, albeit with 34 saves and an incredible 37.8% strikeout rate.
It wasn’t the sinker’s fault though—the pitch posted excellent numbers, including a 34.9% chase rate (80th percentile among sinkers), 17.7% swinging-strike rate (99th percentile) and a 32.4% ICR against (67th percentile). While the velocity has declined slightly in recent years, Hader’s sinker has not gotten less effective.
“Wait, who?” you might be asking if you’re not a Padres fan. Jeremiah Estrada’s four-seamer was killer last year and rates as the best fastball in the league for us.
Estrada had a great year out of the bullpen for the Padres last year, posting a 2.95 ERA with a ridiculous 37.3% strikeout rate over 61 innings and logging 16 holds in the process.
Estrada typically throws three pitches, leading with his fastball and adding in his slider and splitter. The fastball comes in at 98.7 MPH on average with an incredible 18.7 inches of vert (98th percentile among fastballs) and a 1.3 degree height-adjusted VAA (74th percentile). As far as the shape of a fastball, you couldn’t ask for much better.
The pitch worked beautifully too, posting a 36.7% chase rate (93rd percentile among fastballs), a 30.7% CSW (71st percentile), and a 35.5% ICR (71st percentile). Estrada’s fastball posted some incredible results and is well-deserved to be listed among the best fastballs in the league.