As we had with the closers earlier in the week, there’s a lot of movement in the holds ranks as we are now a month into the season, and we can start taking some behind-the-scenes numbers seriously. I’ll detail some of the risers below, but let’s start with some guys who fell this week, as there are some concerning signs in their profiles. Tony Santillan is the big name for me, as he just doesn’t have the bat-missing ability he had in the second half of last season (K rate is down 23.1%!). This could be due to his fastball velocity being down over 1 MPH, but I have doubts he’ll be able to survive with just a 9.9% SwStr and 23.4% CSW. Tyler Ferguson has emerged as the A’s top setup man, but the stuff really is just meh (4.81 PLV, 11% SwStr, 27.8% CSW). Jacob Webb has a 0.78 WHIP, but that comes with just a 20.3% K, 25.1% CSW rates and 89 Stuff+.
Notes
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Ryan Zeferjahn has a 51.4% strikeout rate so far on the season, second-best amongst all relievers, and it isn’t just some fluke. Including his short stint last season, Zeferjahn now holds a 2.43 SIERA and 36% K rate over 26.1 IP, and the stuff passes the test too with a 119 Stuff+ and 5.14 PLV. He only has two holds on the season, but he also doesn’t have much competition for high-leverage work at the moment.
- Fernando Cruz holding a 43% K rate heading into May shouldn’t be too surprising, as he has flashed this ability before. His signature splitter holds a 33% SwStr rate, and while he’s prone to blowups when the splitter isn’t getting chases, he’s locked into a setup role with the Yankees right now and should be rostered. Cruz did get off to a similar start last season, so just beware that things could fall apart quickly.
- I still love Mason Montgomery, but Garrett Cleavinger has been the Rays’ best left-handed reliever so far. Cleavinger is one of only a handful of pitchers who currently have a K% and a CSW% above 40%. He is currently rocking a 0.66 WHIP. Similar to Zeferjahn, Cleavinger only has one hold, but that number should increase given how dominant he has looked so far.
- Yuki Matsui is looking like the guy that was hyped up last year when he came over from Japan, as he currently holds impressive 38% K and 18.3% SwStr rates. He’s upped his splitter usage and dropped the slider usage, and it’s paid off in year two.
