Welcome to the PLV Power Report! Here, we examine hitter performance by utilizing Power, a PLV metric that indexes a player’s power based on the characteristics of the pitch, i.e., count, location, velocity, induced vertical break, height-adjusted vertical approach angle, and other factors. Essentially, we’re searching for players with upside who are adding power based on the expectation of the individual pitches they see.
For example, say a hitter hits a well-located fastball on the outside corner that might typically coax a weak line drive, but instead they belt a home run the opposite way; they’ll get a much better power grade for that outcome. Conversely, if that hitter sees a hanging changeup over the heart of the plate, or another pitch that would normally be crushed, and they instead pop up to short, they’ll get a much lower score for the outcome. The power metric is unique because it provides a more intuitive way to asses player performance by accounting for the quality of each pitch they see. In other words, it’s a good way to check if a player is over- or underperforming by adding another layer of context. Keep in mind, Power, like most of the PLV metrics, is normalized to 100 and generally becomes more meaningful after around 75 BBE (batted ball events).
If you’re new to the PLV metrics, you can find Nick’s primer here.
This week, we’ll survey a few players who have made some noise in the first month. Keep in mind, it’s still early, and as you’ll notice from some of last season’s rolling charts, things can and will fluctuate a bit, even after 75 BBE; these are merely some of the trends we’ve seen so far.
We’ll start with PCA, who has been brilliant, ranking 43rd among qualifiers with a .361 wOBA across 155 PA. Last year, he posted a .289 wOBA across 410 PA, which would have placed him just ahead of Anthony Volpe for 12th lowest among qualifiers. Through Tuesday, he’s one home run away from matching last year’s 10! What a difference a year makes.
PCA remains an aggressive hitter who likes to expand the zone, and his contact ability is a tick below average (93), which might make him a little susceptible to a cold snap. However, his power gains are undeniable. Last year, PLV graded his power at 96 across 259 BBE, so a few points below the average of 100. This season, he’s toting a power grade of 111 through 107 BBE; that’s an improvement of about a standard deviation. PCA’s burgeoning power has turned him into a fantasy game-breaker.
Ranking 22nd among qualifiers with a .381 wOBA, Soderstrom’s brilliant start has made everyone forget last year’s 61-game stint during which he hit .233 with a .322 wOBA. All things considered, it wasn’t an awful showing; he hit nine home runs. Still, it pales compared to what he’s done this year. You might’ve guessed, or at least I did, that he has shown more power this year than last. But that’s not true; his 116 Power (100 BBE) is actually down five points relative to last year’s 121 (117 BBE). His results might not have been impressive, but he thumped the ball with vigor last year.
Everybody likes a good redemption story. Enter Spencer Torkelson. The former first overall pick out of Arizona State found himself in Triple-A Toledo last June and ended the year hitting .219 with a .295 wOBA across 381 PA. Granted, he’s not going to win a batting title anytime soon; he’s hitting just .234 through Tuesday. Still, he’s doing what you want from your 1B/DH: hitting for extra bases. He’s just a few decimals under Soderstrom with the 24th-best wOBA among qualifiers.
Last year, Torkelson was about a half a standard deviation below the average at 93. That’s not what you want from your slugging first baseman. This year? A different story entirely. He’s at 132! That’s more than two standard deviations above the average, and an improvement of 39 points. His 75 BBE is on the border of our ideal sample size, so it might come down a little. Still, whatever adjustments he made this offseason have worked.
Carroll endured a dichotomous 2024. If you had him on your team, you recalled the pain of him going yard just eight times through July. Speculation swirled about him nursing a shoulder injury. And then, would you believe it? August happened. Let’s take a second to visualize his second-half rebirth.
Needless to say, last year’s glorious crescendo has carried over to 2025. Through Tuesday, he’s tenth among qualifiers with a .403 wOBA and is just two home runs behind Aaron Judge’s 12 for the league lead. Carroll’s power gains are on par with Torkelson’s. Last year, Carroll was a few ticks below average at 96 (453 BBE). This year, he’s soared to 132 (99 BBE). For reference, Judge’s power grade is 137. Not too shabby for Carroll, who has done all this despite weighing perhaps 175 pounds soaking wet.
Springer’s 2024 season ended with a career-low .298 wOBA. At 35, it seemed like he was on a precipitous decline; his NFBC ADP as the 61st OFer demonstrated the notion. Last year’s batted-ball data didn’t paint a rosy picture either.
And yet, here we are. Through Tuesday, he’s seventh among qualifiers with a .415 wOBA. The sample is a little smaller than we’d like (65 BBE), but Springer is definitely hitting for more power; he’s at 109 compared to last year’s 91. However, it’s apparently come at the expense of some contact ability; he’s striking out about five percent more frequently than last year. Springer has just four home runs thus far, but his batted ball data suggests more are on the way.
We didn’t see much of Jung Hoo Lee last year, thanks to a season-ending shoulder injury that limited him to 158 PA. We saw him flash top-of-the-scale contact ability (142), but limited power (87; 133 BBE). Flash forward to 2025, and he’s doubled last year’s home run output in about the same number of PA, and he’s 27th among qualifiers with a .379 wOBA. Sure enough, his power has risen to 100, aka league average. That might not seem like much, but that’s quite an improvement, and he should continue to produce well, considering his contact ability remains exceptional (113). I just wish he had a better home park to hit in.
Chances are, you didn’t draft Edman for his power, considering he peaked with 13 longballs in 2022 and 2023. Nonetheless, the soon-to-be thirty-year-old has already bopped eight home runs, surpassing last year’s six in six fewer games. Sure enough, Edman’s power supports the surprising start; he’s leveled up from 83 (91 BBE) to 103 (92 BBE). And unlike Springer, it’s come with about a five percent drop in K rate. I’d be pretty excited to see what he could do with average-ish power in the Dodgers’ lineup.
You probably don’t recall Ben Rice from his 2024 debut; he hit just .171 with a .269 wOBA through 178 PA. However, the Yankee first baseman/DH has since started to make a name for himself, with a .403 wOBA through Tuesday, just behind James Wood for 12th among qualifiers. Surprisingly enough, Rice demonstrated quite a bit of power during his less-than-stellar debut last year, earning a 113 grade (108 BBE). Perhaps he got a bit unlucky. Either way, it helps lend credence to his early start. And, yes, his power grade has improved this year at 119. Although the sample size (72 BBE) isn’t quite ideal.
Who would’ve thought? The Marlins might have at least one pretty decent hitter after all. Stowers, who, this past Saturday, bopped the Marlins’ first walk-off grand slam since Giancarlo Stanton in 2014, ranks 20th among qualifiers with a .383 wOBA. Stowers does indeed have light tower power at 123 (72 BBE). In case you were wondering, he earned a 118 power grade last season across 209 PA with the Orioles and Marlins. However, his contact ability (77) and 48th percentile chase rate might portend future struggles.
Adam Salorio just wrote a deep dive on the Polar Bear that you should check out, so I’ll keep this mention short. Suffice it to say, Alonso has one of the prettiest PLV profiles at the moment, with, yes, big gains in power. I have a hunch Mets fans will be, if they aren’t already, thrilled that their first baseman never left Queens.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads
@kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)
