A theme you will encounter in today’s version of the Hitter List is the replacement level for your league. Many valuation changes here are a result of some recalibrating where the replacement level is for a standard league (particularly at first base).
Replacement level is a fairly straightforward concept and points to the general quality of player you can get off the wire for that position. Some positions, like outfield in a three outfielder league, have very high replacement levels while others, like catcher, have a fairly low one. Every league has a slightly different feel to replacement level, so to find yours, go and find the tier where there are a couple of players (ideally at the same position you’re targeting) all on the wire.
Once you find that replacement level, you’ll have a good feel for what type of player you’ll always be able to scoop up in a pinch, and it will inform the types of risks you take when adding/dropping players. It’s a critical piece of knowledge that will help with the heartburn you’re going to feel with these early-season waiver moves.
- As a reminder, these rankings are geared toward a standard, daily, 12-team H2H redraft league, as that is typically the most popular fantasy baseball format. They will only factor in the five standard categories: Runs, RBI, Home Runs, Batting Average, and Stolen Bases.
- I would recommend not paying super close attention to the specific ranks of each player, and honing in more on the respective tiers that they’re in. Each tier represents a grouping of players that I think could arguably perform at a similar level, and/or carry similar levels of risk in terms of injury concerns or playing time obstacles. If Player X is ranked at No. 55 and Player Y is ranked at No. 65, but they’re in the same tier, it means that I personally prefer Player X, but think there’s a valid argument to be made for Player Y performing just as well.
- I take rankings like this as more of an art than a science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their own biases, strategic philosophies, determinations of risk, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. My way of evaluating and ranking players has worked out well for me over the years, but it might not be a great fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your league mates’ player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could, it’d be weird. In a bad way.
- This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.
- I’m doing my best to use five starts or 10 appearances as the threshold for positional eligibility. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions, but once those eligibilities are earned, I’ll add them in. This is just a maintenance thing and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!
Ranking Philosophy
To keep things in the same ilk, here are a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:
- In 12-team formats, I just don’t see much value in guys who only provide stolen bases. It’s an important category, especially in Roto, but in shallower formats, there are too many other (and better) ways to get the steals you need without sacrificing production in the other categories.
- If I want to get some insight on whether what I’m seeing is new or if it’s just normal fluctuation, I’d use my favorite tool—the rolling chart, which I’ll also reference as appropriate. You can also get rolling charts from sources like FanGraphs or Baseball Savant. If you have any questions about how to do that or how to read these charts, reach out to me!
- No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), lineup context, and the skills we can measure using tools such as our PLV Hitter Attributes (available for PL Pro members). I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators.
- Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.
- On a similar note, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.
- Anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 to 100 at-bats—regardless of true talent. Heck, it could even last over a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which of these will be true until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends can give us hints.
- If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on the website formerly known as Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments below!
Read The Notes
- These rankings talk about what I generally project for a player, but these rankings are not projections. They include projections but also take into account performance risk, injury risk, team context, ceiling, and floor.
Check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast featuring Scott Chu and Brett Ford, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!
I also host an AMA in the r/fantasybaseball subreddit every Friday starting around noon ET that lasts through the rest of the day and into the weekend, so feel free to join the fun and ask questions or make comments.
Tier 1
- As long as Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Bobby Witt Jr. are healthy, they’ll be in this tier.
Tier 2
- There are a number of ways you can shuffle around José Ramírez, Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker, Fernando Tatis Jr., Elly De La Cruz, and Corbin Carroll and justify it with sound reason. I chose this way.
- Yordan Alvarez has been a bit better of late, and I still have supreme confidence that he soon reminds us why he is considered one of the best hitters in all of baseball.
Tier 3
- Jackson Chourio isn’t walking, but he’s hitting, and that’s just fine with me.
- Francisco Lindor has raised his slugging by 139 points since Thursday.
- Gunnar Henderson might still just be rusty, but the strikeout problem is a mild concern as it was once the primary issue in his game.
- Austin Riley has mostly gotten the strikeouts under control and is hitting the cover off the ball. As long as he stays healthy, he’s going to stay in the top-three conversation at the hot corner.
Tier 4
- Julio Rodríguez is having issues with contact in the zone and that worries me more than anything else. That said, this is a player who has all of the talent of players in Tier 2.
- You can come up with various narratives about the struggles of Rafael Devers, but it comes down to the fact that he’s not getting the ball to the pull field. Devers is hitting the ball as hard as ever, but hitting almost 50% of your balls in play up the middle is a tough way to earn a living. I expect Devers to make the appropriate adjustment in time and until then you absolutely should be holding instead of selling low.
- By every metric available, Brent Rooker is one of the worst outfield defenders in the league, so I’m curious how this whole Nick Kurtz experiment plays out.
Tier 5
- James Wood is arriving.
- Oneil Cruz stole some more bases and crushed some more home runs. There’s likely some volatility ahead but as long as he keeps walking a bit and striking out in an acceptable range, the rest will sort itself out.
- William Contreras has actually been quite good so don’t read too deep into the six spot drop. On draft day, we assumed William Contreras would be head and shoulders above all other catchers, but the emergence of Cal Raleigh has me questioning that, so I pulled their rankings closer together.
- Welcome back, Wyatt Langford! He’s looked incredible since his return so no worries on any “nagging” injury right now.
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. is going to be fine. The ratios stink (they’ll get better, but not by a ton), but everything else is so good that it’s worth dealing with the volatility in that category.
Tier 6
Hoping Corey Seager’s hamstring is OK.It is not OK and he hits the IL.- Adley Rutschman is hitting the ball with decent quality, but the results just aren’t there. I’d keep waiting as the upside is much higher than almost any catcher.
- Teoscar Hernández’s average exit velocity is WAY down (84.8 mph, his career average is 91.3). The production from being a cleanup hitter for the Dodgers will mask some of that, but I’ll be watching closely.
- I’m not worried about Riley Greene quite yet, despite the ugly numbers, as I think some of it is already starting to turn around. He has just three strikeouts in his last six games, and the exit velocity is trending upwards. Most importantly, we’ve seen Greene slump like this before on multiple occasions, and each time he fiercely rebounds.
Tier 7
- Willson Contreras is slashing .302/.362/.488 in his last 11 games because he’s still a good hitter.
- Will Smith would be ahead of Contreras if he played more.
- Salvador Perez has been profoundly unlucky and is still hitting the ball well. Be patient.
- Anthony Santander takes a big tumble, but that’s mostly because there are a lot of good outfielders out there. He’s not a drop for me in any format.
Tier 8
- Love seeing Steven Kwan swipe some bags and swat some home runs. I’d love nothing more than for him to hit 12-15 home runs again while also getting back to 20 steals with his .300 batting average. Is that so much to ask?
- Randy Arozarena isn’t helping you in batting average, but the high walk rate has continued (he has a .400 OBP over his last 60 plate appearances), and he’s hitting a few home runs and swiping plenty of bases, all while batting fourth.
- Jordan Westburg is a young, aggressive hitter who is going to be a bit prone to ups and downs. I am not worried about the current slump.
- I’m keeping an eye on Matt McLain’s strikeout rate, as it may make him a considerable drag on your batting average. That .290 batting average from 2023 was fueled by a line drive rate that seemed too high, and if those batted balls continue to be more fly balls (which is in line with his minor league track record) and he continues to strikeout 30% of the time, he may be more of a .220-.230 hitter than a .260-.270 hitter.
Tier 9
- Willy Adames has endured slow starts before, though I don’t love how long this one is lasting.
- Christian Walker falls mostly because we’ve had so many strong first basemen show signs of new levels of production early in the season. He’s still someone who is clearly rosterable in 12-teamers, who I expect to have a turnaround soon.
- Yainer Diaz continues to struggle, but again, we’ve seen this before, and he rebounded hard.
- Welcome back, Zach Neto! Here’s to hoping the Angels flip Neto and Rengifo in the lineup ASAP.
- Cedric Mullins has been fantastic, and I somehow hadn’t noticed as much as I should have.
Tier 10
- Michael Harris II has slumped before and rebounded, but he seems to have lost his hold on the leadoff spot, and the hard hit rate is way down. By the time Ronald Acuña Jr. comes back, Harris may be permanently stuck in the bottom-third of the order.
- Hooray Dylan Crews! It’s a seven-game hitting streak with three home runs, three stolen bases, and just one strikeout.
- Mark Vientos is going to turn it on soon, and I am thrilled by the improved plate discipline.
Tier 11
- GET TORK’D NERDS. And by that I mean hooray Spencer Torkelson!
- Taylor Ward had an incredible stretch, but I am getting the sense he is streakier than I want him to be.
- Alec Bohm is on a nine-game hitting streak, and I’m hoping that helps him climb back up the batting order. If it doesn’t, he may fall on the list again, as much of his value was tied to the counting stats he’d pile up in the heart of the order.
- No, I don’t have good advice about Luis Robert Jr. besides hold and pray if you’re in a five-outfield format.
Tier 12
- It’s good to see signs of life from Jake Burger.
- Tyler Soderstrom has struggled of late, and the Athletics have an extreme roster logjam at DH (where Soderstrom is likely moving with Nick Kurtz’s call-up).
- Ben Rice crushes the ball when he connects with it. I’m curious how long he can remain so incredibly passive in the zone without paying a price for it, but for now, we can just enjoy this.
- Vinnie Pasquantino will figure it out because he’s a smart hitter, but with so many strong first basemen emerging, he is not a must-hold in leagues with no corner infield spot. In those formats, we are likely very close to your replacement level at first base.
- Andrés Giménez is still the fourth hitter for the Blue Jays somehow.
Tier 13
- Jasson Domínguez has a bright future ahead, but for many 12-teamers, he’s not showing enough to prove he’s much above the fantasy replacement level, especially in three outfield formats.
- Xander Bogaerts isn’t bad, but he’s become a bit more boring over the years and likely is more of a high-floor play, which at this point in the ranks is hard to value.
- Victor Scott II is playing daily and running. That’s what you want.
Tier 14
- Jonathan Aranda has slowed slightly of late but appears to be an everyday player right now.
- Cam Smith gets added to the list because he has really hung in there and found ways to make contact against major league pitching. He’ll need to continue to make adjustments, but it’s clear the Astros will be playing him every day from here out.
- I know, you’ve been waiting (or using ctrl+f) to see what I did with Nick Kurtz. On one hand, I am absolutely a fan of what he’s shown overall in the minor leagues, and it sounds like the management of the Athletics is somehow planning to put him in every day and just take the hit in the outfield defense. On the other hand, in Kurtz’s last 12 games, he’s struck out 32.2% of the time, and in his last seven games, he’s hitting just .185/.333/.222. There are going to be some adjustment periods for Kurtz, even if he hits the ground running, and ignoring that volatility is a mistake. He’s absolutely worth ditching anyone on your roster who is close to replacement level, but there’s plenty of risk here (as there is with all debut players), but the hype is justified.
- Yandy Díaz is going to volume his way into a top-15 finish at the position, but in shallower leagues, it’s not much better than what you can stream with all of the new players emerging at the position. For what it’s worth, just about every projection has Yandy in their top 12 at first base over the rest of the season.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is probably going to outperform this ranking over the rest of the season, but it’s such a wild ride that I’ve chosen to just get out and let someone else deal with it.
- Jake Mangum is getting a ton of playing time, and I love it.
- Oh hey, it’s the OTHER guy you probably scrolled down to find. Chandler Simpson is a weird player. It looks like the Rays have chosen to let him lead off against righties right out of the gate, and he already has two steals in his first three games. The real question is going to be how often he can keep getting hits with such low power. Can his speed keep making up for weak grounders to the infield? Will he be able to consistently handle the better pitching and turn his slaps into line drives? How patient will the Rays be if he slumps at all, considering they have a super crowded outfield and two more pieces on the way back in Josh Lowe and Jonny DeLuca? This whole situation is a mess, but if you need steals, Simpson may be the only guy not named Elly who can steal 80.
- Pavin Smith continues to hit the ball harder than he had in past years, and the D-Backs continue to face right-handed pitching almost exclusively, which means Smith is hitting third every day. Stream for now and see what happens.
Tier 15
- Austin Hays is a guy in a good situation with middling skills. Stream away.
- Brandon Nimmo might just be a replacement-level guy in 12-teamers now.
- I’m still not a huge Sal Frelick fan overall because I think the power is a fluke, but he’s running enough for it not to matter right now.
- Keibert Ruiz continues to hit and is worth holding.
- Masyn Winn is a decent hitter, but he can’t realize his full potential without leading off.
- Luke Keaschall is off to a great start and is a solid middle infield streamer.
- Ryan Mountcastle has found himself below the first base replacement line in 12-teramers.
- Eugenio Suárez is hitting the ball hard when he connects, but that is far too infrequently for me to keep holding. Since April 2, he has a wRC+ of just 30 and a 35.7% strikeout rate.
- Agustín Ramírez is a solid power streamer at catcher and was someone I was interested in this spring until he got sent down to start the year.
- Gavin Lux isn’t a great hitter, but like Hays, finds himself in a good situation.
- Brandon Lowe is stuck in a pure platoon and I don’t know how he gets out of it.
Taxi Squad
Players are listed in no particular order. This list is not every single interesting guy out there, but a running list of players who either almost made the list or who have been topics of interesting conversation.
Catcher
- Carson Kelly (C, CHC) — He’s unlikely to get the necessary playing time to be relevant, but when he does play, he’s been fantastic.
- Miguel Amaya (C, CHC) — See above.
- Joey Bart (C, PIT) — Has some nice stretches for the Bucs after leaving the Giants and is a solid streamer when the matchups work out.
- Alejandro Kirk (C, TOR) — Points league catcher.
- Dillon Dingler (C, DET) — The injury to Jake Rogers makes Dingler the everyday catcher for at least a little while.
- Pedro Pagés (C, STL) — He’ll get the everyday backstop duties while Herrera is out.
- Ryan Jeffers (C, MIN) — We will probably see stretches where he reminds everyone he can hit the ball hard, but he’s replacement level.
- Austin Wynns (C, CIN) — He was part of that massive blowout, and it pumped his stats in a big way. That’s all.
- Drake Baldwin (C, ATL) — Plenty of promise here long term, but the playing time isn’t enough for single-catcher leagues.
- Gabriel Moreno (C, ARI) — Points league catcher.
First Base
- Andrew Vaughn (1B, CWS) — The replacement level at first base has changed dramatically since draft day, and Vaughn is firmly below it in too many leagues.
- Luke Raley (1B/OF, SEA) — Raley was a top-120 hitter in standard leagues last year and has the upside to do something similar again.
- Nolan Schanuel (1B, LAA) — Points league contributor who would need to reinvent himself to hit more home runs.
- Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, BAL) — He gets hot every year for a bit and always hits righties.
- Wilmer Flores (1B, SFG) — It’s a neat little hot streak for a player who is easy to root for.
- Matt Mervis (1B, MIA) — As with many other guys in this part of the article, he’s a free-swinging masher with severe contact issues. The home runs will come and go, and when they go, it will be very ugly.
- Eric Wagaman (1B/3B/OF, MIA) — This contact ability is cool, but this still just feels like a hot streak.
Second Base
- Luis Rengifo (2B/3B, LAA) — I’ve waited long enough to see if the steals are coming back. They aren’t, apparently.
- Jackson Holliday (2B, BAL) — The strikeout issues appear to be behind him, so now we wait for improved quality of contact. No need to hold in redraft, but in dynasty, he’s a clear hold.
- Hyeseong Kim (2B, LAD) — He’s performing well in the minors, and they could always push Edman to the outfield to make room.
- Gavin Lux (2B, CIN) — He’s had a strong spring and appears to have at least a large share of an outfield job in baseball’s second-best park for home runs.
- Edouard Julien (2B, MIN) — All that decision-making is for naught if he can’t connect on pitches in the zone.
- Travis Bazzana (2B, CLE) — How long will the Guardians stick with Arias and Schneemann at second if the division is as competitive as it was last season?
- Colt Keith (2B, DET) — Hitting the ball a little harder, but the walks are entirely gone. That gaudy walk rate all comes from the first week or so of the season.
- Kyren Paris (2B, LAA) — Having 30 amazing plate appearances is fun, but not predictive.
- Brooks Lee (2B/3B, MIN) — The upside is fairly limited unless he moves up to the top of the order, which I don’t really expect in the near future.
- Christopher Morel (2B/3B/OF, TBR) — The production is here but the strikeout rate is out of control. I don’t trust this.
Third Base
- Joey Ortiz (3B/SS, MIL) — Does just enough in four of the five hitting categories to be relevant. If this list were for OBP, he might crack the end of it.
- Matt Shaw (3B, CHC) — No need to hold in 12-team redraft leagues. Shaw could be successful, but quality of contact is a tricky demon to slay.
- Connor Norby (3B, MIA) — Expect power and tons of strikeouts, assuming the oblique is fully healthy.
- Gabriel Arias (3B, CLE) — He’s an aggressive hitter with extreme contact issues in the zone. It’s a tale as old as time and almost always turns out the same way (a streamer when hot and a drop when not).
- Dylan Moore (2B/3B/SS/OF, SEA) — He’s a part-time player with speed, some pop, and contact issues. Classic guy where you’ll be trying to catch lightning in a bottle and should probably only try against left-handed pitching.
- Zach McKinstry (2B/3B/SS/OF, DET) — He’s a fine replacement-level guy in OBP, but we’ve seen these hot streaks before, and they don’t tend to last terribly long.
- Jace Jung (3B, DET) — He might be platooned and has an issue with grounders and strikeouts, but the OBP upside is high, and he hits the ball hard.
- Caleb Durbin (3B, MIL) — Solid points league play (if you lose points for strikeouts) as he’ll put a ton of balls in play and he has the upside to steal 15-20 bases, but the power is very limited and it may take some time before Durbin shows decent ratios.
Shortstop
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2B/3B/SS, PIT) — He plays every day and doesn’t strike out a ton. If the Pirates continue to steal at insane rates, IKF might be more interesting than we’d have normally expected, but remember that the ratios are generally pretty neutral and he doesn’t have power.
- Jordan Lawlar (SS, ARI) — Prospect people I trust have been holding a candle for Lawlar for several years.
- Geraldo Perdomo (SS, ARI) — The walks and power surge are interesting, but probably not permanent. His upside is that of Luis Arraez with more walks and a worse batting average (though still a very good one). The question will be whether he can keep hitting these line drives. Historically, he’s been unable to sustain a rate above 20% for long, and to be successful with this profile a 20% line drive rate is probably the minimum for long-term viability (since he almost never hits it very hard and needs it to go over the infield and drop in front of the outfield on most of his hits).
Outfield/DH
- Roman Anthony (OF, BOS) — He’s the top prospect in a top-heavy Boston system and should get a chance to play at some point this summer.
- Emmanuel Rodriguez (OF, MIN) — He’s possibly the most passive hitter I’ve ever seen, and it’s tough to make that work in the majors (especially if you have contact issues), but he hits the ball hard and has a lot of buzz right now.
- Jordan Walker (OF, STL) — If he ever hits the ball in the air, I’ll be interested. That is not what is happening as of right now.
- TJ Friedl (OF, CIN) — The more he leads off, the more I’ll possibly care. That said, I’m not trying to chase 2023’s numbers as Friedl is too fragile and rarely hits the ball hard.
- Jake Fraley (OF, CIN) — He’ll find a way to steal 20 bases again and hit .250-.260, but everything else is a crapshoot.
- Trevor Larnach (OF, MIN) — He’d be on the back of the list if he had a full-time role, but he doesn’t have the pop of Wallner to carry him through the off days.
- Mike Yastrzemski (OF, SFG) — The definition of a replacement-level fantasy outfielder in 12-teamers.
- Gavin Sheets (DH, SDP) — He’s a platoon bat who has power and contact issues. There are a lot of these guys in the league and he is certainly one of them. All of his stats are essentially from a single night.
- Zac Veen (OF, COL) — The Rockies gave him regular time, but Veen isn’t ready to hit major league stuff yet.
- Michael Conforto (OF, LAD) — Conforto has a little pop, a bit of injury risk, and can be streaky, especially with the strikeout rate. Solid streamer, though he’ll drop at least one spot in the order when Freeman returns and another if Will Smith or Max Muncy heat up.
- Griffin Conine (OF, MIA) — The strikeouts will probably become too much to deal with, but there’s huge raw power here that might be relevant in NL-only or very deep formats.
- Jake McCarthy (OF, ARI) — Every time we think we understand his trajectory, it changes dramatically.
IL Stashes
Players are listed by position and not by projected value.
- Iván Herrera (C, STL) — He’ll be out for at least four weeks with a bone bruise on his knee. Tough to hold in a single-catcher league with limited IL, but in deeper leagues and two-catcher formats, it’s a must.
- Francisco Alvarez (C, NYM) — Tons of power, but injuries and inconsistency have been a problem. Top ten catcher upside.
- Tyler Stephenson (C, CIN) — Probably won’t play as much or hit 19 home runs again, but should be useful most of the time.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B, CIN) — He was about to get removed from the list. He’s now on a more permanent “prove it to me first” before he’s recommended again in any format.
- Luis Arraez (1B/2B, SDP) — Hopefully, he’s back by the start of May.
- Spencer Horwitz (1B/2B, PIT) — He’ll be in the everyday lineup almost immediately on his return. Has enough plate discipline and contact to be roster-worthy.
- Jake Cronenworth (1B/2B, SDP) — No need to stash him unless you have a deep IL.
- Ketel Marte (2B, ARI) — Hoping he comes back in April, but ligaments can be touchy.
- Thairo Estrada (2B, COL) — Should be the everyday guy again when healthy, and while it ain’t exciting, it’s honest work.
- Zack Gelof (2B, ATH) — He’ll likely steal bases when he’s back but the power will be questionable. He’s also ratio poison due to an inability to make contact.
- Ha-Seong Kim (2B/SS, TBR) — Should be back by June and ready to swipe bags.
- Nick Gonzales (2B, PIT) — I’m intrigued by the huge step forward he made with his strikeout rates last season.
- Royce Lewis (3B, MIN) — He’ll be worth rostering when he’s healthy, but goodness, this guy has bad luck.
- Matt Vierling (3B/OF, DET) — I have no idea how this Tiger lineup shakes out when he’s healthy, especially if Tork is hitting.
- Corey Seager (SS, TEX) — Hopefully, he’s back in the next three-ish weeks. Maybe even sooner, but his track record is less than stellar on being healthy.
- Ezequiel Tovar (SS, COL) — Hold him if you can, because the strikeouts and quality of contact look much improved.
- CJ Abrams (SS, WAS) — Shouldn’t be out too long, but don’t expect that level of power again (not because of the injury, just because he’s an extremely aggressive hitter who mostly hits home runs in short waves).
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (OF, ATL) — I think he can quickly make people forget that lackluster 2024. Let’s also not forget that he’s barely 27 and in the prime of his career.
- Parker Meadows (OF, DET) — Hitting the 60-day IL is rough, but he’ll play when he’s back this summer.
- Daulton Varsho (OF, TOR) — If you’re indifferent to ratios (which is a viable strategy in H2H Category leagues), Varsho is an easy player to roster as a fifth outfielder.
- Giancarlo Stanton (DH, NYY) — We have no idea when he’s even going to begin baseball activities, so he’s only relevant if you have unlimited IL spots.
- Colton Cowser (OF, BAL) — The injury stinks, and it may be tough to leadoff again if Mullins keeps hitting.
- Josh Lowe (OF, TBR) — Oblique strains are always tough, as if being on the Rays wasn’t enough of a challenge in terms of secure playing time.
- Victor Robles (OF, SEA) — Oof, he’s likely out until July. In leagues with a tight IL, he’s possibly a drop.
- Jonny DeLuca (OF, TBR) — Likely to miss two to four weeks, just enough time to make the Tampa Bay roster an even bigger mess than it is already.
- Jackson Merrill (OF, SDP) — Yet another man down with a hammy issue. Hopefully, it’s just a short stay and he’s back on the field.
- Matt Wallner (OF, MIN) — Hammys are always a little tricky. You don’t NEED to stash him if your IL is full, especially if it’s a format that only requires three outfielders (or four if it’s a 10-teamer).
- Lane Thomas (OF, CLE) — Not a must-hold at this time.
that pic is of Nate Lowe, not Dylan Crews
Fixed!
Wyatt Langford has been back since 4-20 and has hit a couple of HRs.
He’s back on, and Seager is moved to the IL.
Pretty sure that’s Nathaniel Lowe’s paunch rather than Dylan Crew’s 6 pack in the pic.
Hey now, that is a professional athlete in his prime!
And also we messed up but it’s fixed.
pitcher list in a nutshell; big banner says Dylan Crews and its a picture of Nate Lowe SMH lol
Whoooooops. Fixed!
That was exactly what gave it away for me too hahahaha
While I agree that Ben Rice does have a very high Called Strike %, Anecdotally, I see a lot of profiles where that is a tradeoff for a very low O-swing% (Rice is 21.3% as I type). I would imagine this implies that he is laying off pitches that are around the edges of the plate and focusing his swings on the stuff that is more over the heart of the plate, or in short, he’s picking the best pitches to hit and laying off pitches that are harder to hit (both out of the zone and on the corners).
I know this mix has killed things for hitters like Suwinski, but Is it possible this can be a good thing for some hitters? James Wood seems to have some of this in his profile as well, although he looks like he’s trending towards swinging at more pitches in the zone than last year and Rice’s called strike %s and o-swing%s look strangely similar to Juan Soto’s (NOT comping him to Soto, just speaking to the swing metrics).
Maybe I’m a sucker for EV, but I can’t help but swoon for someone who can hold onto an EV of 95.2mph through 53 events and his barrel rate (24.5%) and hard hit rate (64.2%) are unsustainable surely, but amazing for this stretch nonetheless.
Also quick aside on Adames. I don’t know where to find the data, but Eno Sarris mentioned that his bat speed was down a concerning amount in the preseason. Not sure if this is the issue, but would be curious if you have data on that.
Great pod this week!
Thanks!
What Ben Rice is doing CAN be sustained, it’s just difficult with a very thin margin for error. The more he does it, the more I accept he can keep doing it, as you can see by the 18-spot jump.
Adames’s swing speed is down about 2 ticks from last year and 1 tick from 2023 and it’s a slightly shorter swing. I don’t think that’s the root cause of the issues here, not that I know what the root cause truly is.
Give me Misner in the top 150, possibly top 100. He can have Soler’s spot tbh.
I wanted to do this (top 130ish), but the Chandler Simpson promotion and the return of DeLuca and Lowe on the horizon likely push Misner into a platoon of some kind.
I know he’s had his struggles, but is Spencer Steer no longer Taxi Squad-worthy?
He can get back on there when he goes back to playing every day.
Scott, Can you elaborate why Wilyer Abreu is not ranked higher? He’s playing almost every day and is batting 4th. Thanks for all you do and offer.
I can! He’s a very streaky hitter, and since April 7 he is hitting .173/.283/.288.
Scott I’m assuming you just forgot to rank Tommy Edman when you piled through the stats and then at your deadline you realized it or someone said, “wait what about Tommy Edman?” So you decided to randomly stick him anywhere. Because there ain’t no way in hell Alec “Stinkin’” Bohm is a better hitter/fantasy option” than Tommy Baseball. Bohm can’t hit with men on base this year if his life depended on it. I’m assuming Edman’s recent success is due to the fact he improved his launch angle by a huge margin coupled with increases in almost every important metric, including barrel rate? Tommy Edman seems to come up with a clutch hit every time the National League’s version of the Evil Empire needs someone to step up other than their trio of former MVPs. Except Edman is more akin to a Jedi Knight than a Sith Lord. And everyone in Philly knows Alec Bohm is drawn to the dark side. Because every single time a Phillie gets on base ahead of Bohm, he strikes out or hacks away at the first pitch(usually resulting in a quick out and letting the opposing pitchers of the hook with a lower pitch count than they should have had), everyone in Philly can feel the disturbance in the force…as if millions of souls cried out in terror…! Please take a deeper look at what they are actually doing this year and not what they’ve done in the past. Because some of these guys don’t deserve to be ranked this high. I think Bohm has used some sort of Sith Lord mind trick on you to make you rank him at 84! Shouldn’t even be a top 200 hitter this year, take away the meaningless hit streak I guarantee he hits sub .220 this year. I could have substituted Santander for Bohm. He stinks this year. Maybe the change of scenery? Who knows why some of these guys are down in every major metric.
I dig the Star Wars references. These are definitely players on different trajectories, but a few things that keep them close together for the moment:
Last 10 games:
Bohm – 91.4 EV, .350/.381/.475, 8 R+RBI, 0 HR, 1 SB
Edman – 88.6 EV, .263/.293/.474, 10 R+RBI, 2 HR, 0 SB
This is a big week for Bohm, because if this 10-game hitting streak doesn’t turn into a move back up to 4/5 in the batting order, he’s going to fall 1-2 tiers. It’s also worth noting that Edman hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in past seasons, and hasn’t slugged better than .420 for a full year since the rabbit ball era (aka 2019). I think Edman has a ton of upside if these small sample changes stick, but I’m not ready to call him a locked-in stud just yet.
What does Perdomo have to do to get a spot?
Hit better than .197/.363/.328 with just 7 R and 8 RBI over his last 17 games, probably. In OBP or points, he’d be on the list in the back.
Hello! NL only keeper league.
I’m not seeing a lot of stuff on Jordan Walker as a bust but I think I’m done rostering him. There are some improvements, but the results are about the same as last year.
Elite bat speed, 90.7 EV, 44.8 HH%, but 0.37 BA against breaking balls with a 40.6% Whiff, chase/whiff/K %’s all over 30%. Stick with it a little more or dump while I can?
Also, what do you think about Tim Tawa in deep leagues? His Statcast page looks great! I think 300 PA’s of Tawa could be better than Walker. Worth a shot?
As I mentioned in the Taxi Squad, I need to see the ball in the air. You can hit it hard all you’d like but if it ain’t in the air then you ain’t gonna break out.
Tawa is interesting BUT 300 PA might be a challenge as there’s nowhere for him to play when Marte is back (he’s a 1B/2B guy)
EDIT: Scrath my last comment. Admittedly I have never read the “ranking philosophy” section at the top of the page. I( like most people) scroll right to the rankings without reading the entire page that describes how you come up with the rankings. What an idiot! Sorry Scott I just noticed it when I scrolled back to the top and saw that you clearly state that anyone can do well or terrible(I’m paraphrasing obviously) over 50-100 at bats. And past performance is a good indicator of future success. I do understand this philosophy but still, I just feel the underlying metrics for this season are more accurate predictor of future success or failure at the plate( and in the mound) than past performances. That is the point I was trying to make…your content is still the best in the business…keep up the good work brother!
Scratched! Appreciate the kind words. The one problem with Statcast is that it can’t tell the difference between a hot hitter and a good hitter (and to be fair, it’s not trying to). I do think Edman is a solid player but Bohm has a surprisingly strong track record (though the two will likely flip flop by Wednesday as the extended on-baae streak has not been enough to stop Bohm’s slide down the lineup card).