Two-Start Pitchers: 4/21-4/27

Welcome back to the 2025 two-start pitcher rankings!

Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters and group them into four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two start SPs who should remain on your bench or the wire.

I’ll also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo & ESPN leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in green in the tables.

This week’s group of two start pitchers features minimal sure things. Fortunately, there are a host of pitchers who should be viable for at least one start. Let’s dive in.

As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections. They are subject to change.

 

Set-and-Forget

 

 

• This is the smallest tier of the week, and even the two guys included have some warts. However, Spencer Schwellenbach and Bryce Miller have good enough track records to keep them in your lineups.
• Schwellenbach is the highest-rated pitcher in the Pitcher List Rankings slated for two starts, though neither is particularly appealing. Schwellenbach was roughed up in his last outing, surrendering six runs across 4.2 innings versus the Blue Jays, but his other three outings this season have been gems. Hopefully, he can bounce back with a decent matchup versus the Cardinals before heading on the road to take on the Diamondbacks.
• Miller has been a bit disappointing to start the year. His 3.43 ERA and 3.30 xERA aren’t bad, but the rest of his profile leaves a lot to be desired. His start in Boston is definitely a bit concerning, but his matchup vs. the Marlins at the end of the week more than makes up for it.

 

Most Likely 

 

 

• This tier is also smaller than usual, and most of these options feel weaker than usual. Walker Buehler encapsulates that sentiment perfectly. It’s possible he’s just not a very good pitcher anymore. His xERA is down at 4.47, while he’s striking out less than 20% of opposing batters. However, he’s coming off back-to-back quality outings, and he draws a favorable schedule versus the White Sox and Guardians. If he’s not able to take advantage, he’s probably not worth holding onto anymore.
• Clarke Schmidt is a former top prospect who broke out for the Yankees last season. He pitched to a 2.85 ERA while striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings. His first start of the 2025 season wasn’t great, but he was facing a Royals squad that is really tough to strike out. His schedule this week is favorable enough to keep him in your weekly lineups.
• Kris Bubic finally faced some adversity in his last outing. He absolutely cruised through his first three starts, pitching to a sub-1.00 ERA with 21 strikeouts, but his advanced metrics suggested he was due for some regression. He felt that versus the Yankees. Bubic surrendered three earned runs and allowed seven hits in just 5.1 innings, though he did manage another six strikeouts. His year-long metrics are still more than good enough to justify using him in both starts next week. Facing the Rockies at home is obviously a dream spot, while Houston has struggled mightily against left-handers to start the year (29th in wRC+).
• Max Meyer gets the nod as the “Streamer of the Week.” He’s been strong through his first four outings, particularly when it comes to piling up strikeouts. He’s had at least seven punchouts in three of his four starts, and he ranks in the 74th percentile for strikeout rate overall. He’ll draw two exploitable matchups in the coming week. Getting the Reds outside of Cincinnati is always appealing, as is heading to Seattle to play in one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball.
• Robbie Ray entered the year with high expectations. He’s always had strong stuff, and he looked outstanding in spring training. Notably, his walk rate was all the way down to 0.47 per nine innings, which has always been one of his Achilles’ heels. Unfortunately, he’s been unable to duplicate that success in the regular season, with his walks per nine innings ballooning back up to 6.98. His xERA is also above 5.00, which puts him in just the 24th percentile. Still, the strikeouts have been there, and he’ll get to make two starts at home in the coming week. San Francisco is another pitcher’s park, and the Brewers and Rangers are reasonable matchups.

 

Questionable

 

 

• This is the largest tier this week by a long shot. It’s full of questionable pitchers with good matchups or above-average pitchers with shaky ones. Dean Kremer falls squarely into the first category. He has not been productive this season, pitching to a 4.59 xERA and 14.4% strikeout rate, but his schedule is S-Tier. He’ll take on the Nationals and Tigers, who were two of the worst offenses in baseball last season. Both squads have shown improvement this season—so Kremer does carry some risk—but getting his two starts is advantageous in leagues that cap your weekly transactions.
• Brayan Bello is poised to make his season debut for the Red Sox next week. If he pitches Tuesday versus the Mariners, it theoretically sets him up to start again on Sunday versus the Guardians. The Red Sox will likely be careful with Bello, but he’s talented enough to deploy in either matchup. He’s yet to put it all together for a full season at the MLB level, but neither matchup is particularly imposing.
• Kevin Gausman is a former ace who officially lost that status last season. His 4.71 xERA was his worst mark since his 2020 breakout with the Giants, while his strikeout rate plummeted. The strikeouts have yet to return for Gausman this season, but he’s made it work without them to start the year. He’s posted a 2.49 ERA and 3.35 xERA, and he’s still getting plenty of swings out of the strike zone. It may not continue—especially in difficult matchups against the Astros and Yankees—but there’s enough here to have some optimism about his long-term outlook.
• Osvaldo Bido has pitched to a 2.61 ERA through his first four starts. Unfortunately, there’s no way that’s sustainable. His xERA is nearly two full runs higher, and he’s struggled to generate swings and misses at the big league level. Still, that’s not the worst thing in the world against the White Sox. He’s definitely viable in that matchup, though he carries plenty of risk in his first start versus the Rangers.
• José Soriano has had a couple of good starts and a couple of shaky ones so far this season. His last start was undoubtedly his worst—5.1 innings, 10 hits, three earned runs, two strikeouts—but that came against the Rangers. Facing the Pirates is a much friendlier matchup, so he can be confidently deployed in that outing.
• Tylor Megill has posted a 1.40 ERA through his first four starts, and he looks really good from a pitch-modeling perspective. Unfortunately, some of his other metrics suggest the production is not sustainable. Specifically, his hard-hit rate puts him in just the 13th percentile, so he’s tough to fully trust regardless of the matchup. You’ll definitely want him in the lineup versus the Nationals, but sitting him versus the Phillies is definitely defensible.
• Is everything ok with Aaron Nola? His fastball velocity is down, and he’s pitched to an ERA over 6.00 so far this season. Still, his xERA is basically in line with his marks from the past handful of years, and he’s still generating plenty of strikeouts. He’s simply run poorly from a batted-ball perspective, with opposing batters managing a .377 BABIP. Still, matchups versus the Mets and Cubs are daunting, especially with both being on the road.
• Mitchell Parker looks phenomenal on paper, but he’s going to come crashing back to reality eventually. His strikeout metrics are subpar, while his xERA is roughly two full runs higher than his actual mark. His 3.88 xERA still isn’t terrible, but it shouldn’t be good enough to excite anyone about using him against the Mets or Orioles.
• Nick Martinez has not pitched well to start the year, but he’ll draw an excellent first matchup vs. the Marlins. That said, there’s no way you should consider using him in Coors Field.
• Quinn Priester and Jose Quintana both check similar boxes for the Brewers. Both players have had solid results to start the season, but neither should be expected to maintain them. If you are going to use one of them, you’re better off doing so in San Francisco.
• Brandon Pfaadt is seemingly a perennial breakout candidate, but he has yet to actually do it at the MLB level. His 3.04 ERA through four starts looks strong, but his 5.23 xERA suggests it could be smoke and mirrors.
• Speaking of smoke and mirrors, take a look at Randy Vasquez. The disparity between his ERA (1.74) and xERA (5.68) has to be the largest in baseball at the moment. He’s also generated just eight strikeouts in 20.1 innings. There are minimal circumstances where you should consider using him, but against the Tigers could be one of them.
• Lastly, Jordan Hicks gets the same two matchups as Ray next week. While Ray at least brings some strikeout upside to the table, Hicks is more of a ground-ball specialist. That ultimately makes him a better real-life arm than a fantasy one. He’s run poorly to start the year, but he could possibly be used against the Rangers: they’re 25th in wRC+ versus right-handers in 2025.

 

Avoid

 

 

• There’s nothing to get excited about here: no exciting prospects, no elite matchups, minimal win upside. Maybe you can find a start for one or two of these guys if you’re desperate, but you’d have to squint really hard to find it. You’re best off just avoiding this tier entirely, with the risk far outweighing the upside.