Over the last two offseasons, baseball has seen record-setting contracts. First, Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. More recently, Juan Soto signed a 15-year, $765 million pact with the New York Mets that could escalate to a total value of $800 million. Certain teams are willing to spend more than ever, and players are making more than their predecessors.
But there’s another fact to all of this: What is now outrageous will someday be normal. Ohtani and Soto may have been the first to reach this vaunted number, but they won’t be the last. Someone else’s contract down the line will meet, match, and someday surpass what we’re seeing now. It’s not a question of if. It’s a question of who. Who will make Ohtani and Soto’s prized deals look like peanuts, and make Mickey Mantle rue his October 20, 1931 birthdate?
Is that special someone playing right now? Possibly. Are they already on Ohtani and Soto’s level? Not at all.
Let’s explain: Today’s all-timers are already locked up — Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatís Jr., Manny Machado, Corey Seager, Ronald Acuña Jr., Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Bobby Witt Jr., Bryce Harper, etc – each has made a lifetime deal with their respective franchise. They’ll never step foot in free agency; even when they came close to testing the waters, they were far off. Trout signed his extension with the Los Angeles Angels following an MVP season in 2019. What was his reward? Twelve years and $426.5 million – $273.5 million less than what his former teammate made and $338.5 million than the player whose offensive skills call him the second coming of Trout. The old guard had their day and it was not one of the $500+ million contracts.
That honor will belong to the names of tomorrow; Those great, young, nubile faces just starting to etch themselves a career and maybe daydream of what they could be when their team control runs out. But who? Who among them is capable of that feat?
It’s a hard question. To find its answer, we need some criteria. Namely, are they young enough? The question seems front-facing at first. Ohtani was 30 when he signed his contract, what does youth have to do with this? Let’s start with the fact that comparing anyone to Ohtani is a fool’s errand. The man earned $700 million because he’s Babe Ruth born again and better.
Where we do see age mattering is with Soto. Reaching free agency as a 26-year-old is almost entirely why Soto eclipsed Ohtani. Well, it’s not just that. Soto is of course an all-world talent. Yet he can ask for 14 years without anyone balking because he’ll be on the field for 14 years, only being 40 when his deal ends. When/if a player emerges as a superstar is crucial to this exercise.
As is the more obvious question, are they actually that good? Unlike the question of age and term, this area of exploration is far more gray than black and white. Extrapolation and evaluation are vital to find our answer.
A final complication to consider is whether or not the market would feasibly give a contract of this caliber to a player of a certain position. Because of this, no pitcher is eligible. While pitchers receive their fair share of monster deals – see Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, etc — few come with the term that lets them sniff our $700 million threshold. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is exhibit A for this. His contract totals up to 12 years, $325 million. Even if doubled, Yamamoto is still $50 million short of his countryman’s contractual value. Teams value pitchers –to an extent. Sorry, Paul Skenes.
Another casualty is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. If the 2024-2025 offseason has taught us anything, it’s how little the market values first basemen. Christian Walker, a do-it-all type of player, signed with the Houston Astros to a deal with only a $20 million AAV. Josh Naylor, whose .805 OPS is 17th in the AL since 2023 was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks for pitcher prospect Slade Cecconi and a draft pick – Cecconi has a career ERA of 6.06 in 27 games. And the cherry on top is what’s happening to Pete Alonso. The four-time All-Star, two-time Home Run Derby champion, and former Rookie of the Year is still unsigned. Worse, no one seems terribly interested in him outside his old club.
Even if Guerrero’s a step or three above those either on the free agency or trade market this offseason, the market isn’t there to support an argument for him or any first basemen on this list. If someone is going to sniff Ohtani and Soto, they need positional importance.
With the formalities and the non-invitees out of the way, let’s look at the five candidates to do 699 better than Lee Majors and become baseball’s next $700 million man.
The Acumen: Much is made about the need for a five-tool player – one who hits hard and consistently, plays the field well with an excellent arm, and runs the basepaths like a man possessed. Finding a player who can embody these attributes is rare. Sometimes, it even feels impossible. Yet in the heart of Cincinnati lies a player capable of being that Swiss Army Knife. His name is Elly De La Cruz.
Before the 2024 season, putting Cruz on this list might’ve felt like a projection. After hitting .325/.363/.524 with four home runs, 16 RBI, 16 steals, and a .887 OPS through his first 30 games, Cruz ran into the wall at 1,000 miles per hour. His splat came in the form of a .191/.272/.355 slash line with a .627 OPS over his last 68 games. It wasn’t just De La Cruz’s base numbers, either. His wRC+ went from 132 to 61, his 0.3 fWAR was the 23rd worst in baseball during the second half of 2023, and even more alarming were his strikeout numbers. De La Cruz struck out 105 times, second-most in baseball, to close out 2023.
To put it bluntly, De La Cruz was a worse player for far longer in 2023 than he was productive.
It was a different story in 2024. De La Cruz didn’t just find renewed consistency but better play. He hit .259/.339/.471 for an .809 OPS and 118 wRC+. That’s in addition to 25 home runs, 76 RBI, 36 doubles, 291 total bases, and a sport-leading 67 steals. Calling him a productive player would be comical. The baseball world recognized that notion, naming him an All-Star and voting him eighth in NL MVP voting ahead of established faces on megadeals like Betts, Machado, and Freeman.
De La Cruz did more than just hit and run, however. Among all defenders in 2024, the switch-hitter finished 11th with 15 outs-above-average. Tying De La Cruz for 11th was Gold Glove-winning short-stop Ezequiel Tovar. AL Gold Glove nominees at short Anthony Volpe and Brayan Rocchio also finished behind De La Cruz in the metric. De La Cruz also graded out favorably in runs prevented with 11, tying him for 13th-most in baseball.
None of this is to say De La Cruz is the perfect player. His strikeout numbers are still grotesque, standing at 218 at the end of the 2024 season. The next closest player? Tovar at 200. In fact, the difference between De La Cruz in first (18 strikeouts) is nearly identical to the difference between Tovar in second and Oneil Cruz in seventh. De La Cruz can do a great many things. Laying off strikeouts is not one of the same so far.
Likewise, defensive struggles still exist. Despite his high marks in OAA and runs prevented, De La Cruz’s defensive success rate in 2024 was 132nd at 77%. He didn’t contend for a Gold Glove because he was snubbed. It was because he wasn’t worthy of being in the conversation.
And yet De La Cruz has it. It’s a cheesy, corny, and often reductive way to boil down a player, but it’s true in his case. He is the stuff of Mike Lupica paperbacks: a switch-hitter with power to all fields, a defender who can throw from the hole or on the move. All five tools exist in his game already, and he’s only just finished his second season at the MLB level as a 23-year-old. If he can make jumps in year three similar to those in year two, De La Cruz might become the name shown when discussing what a five-tool player looks like.
The Age: De La Cruz, like Soto before him, is of the right age. He debuted as a 21-year-old on June 6, 2023, and barring an extension will hit free agency as a 28-year-old in 2030. The term of his forever contract could range anywhere from 12 to 14 years. Couple that length with a high AAV, and Cruz could make a run toward that vaunted $700 million number.
The Interest: Would baseball teams — the few who actually, seriously spend money — want a switch-hitting, elite base-runner with high defensive upside at shortstop? Yes.
Though a simple way to frame things, multiple things are true: De La Cruz has an almost untouchable ceiling any team would love to help him touch, he’ll reach the market at a good age, and the market is always favorable to shortstops. Francisco Lindor fetched $341 million from the Mets, Corey Seager $325 from the Texas Rangers, and Trea Turner $300 from the Philadelphia Phillies. Playing a premium position will help De La Cruz’s chances — especially if he can iron out his flaws.
The Likelihood: All in all, De La Cruz feels like a strong candidate. He’s the right talent, age, and position. Yet it’s hard to consider him a real contender as is until he realizes the potential we’ve waxed about. De La Cruz and his agent will hope that happens sooner rather than later.
The Acumen: If any young superstar feels like a safe bet to somehow follow in Ohtani and Soto’s footsteps, it’s Gunnar Henderson.
Perhaps that feels like jumping the gun, but there’s no need to paint a narrative for Henderson when his stats speak for themselves: an AL Rookie of the Year campaign in 2023 that saw him launch 28 homers and collect 82 RBI while touting a .814 OPS. He’d win a Silver Slugger and finish eighth in AL MVP voting for his efforts, ahead of established veterans like José Ramírez of the Guardians, Gerrit Cole of the Yankees, and Aaron Judge. And that’s as a rookie.
In his second season, Henderson hit .281/.364/.529 with a .893 OPS, 37 home runs, 92 RBI, 21 steals, 31 doubles, 333 total bases, and a 155 wRC+. He’d be named to the All-Star team with little issue and finish fourth in the AL MVP conversation, trailing only Judge, Witt Jr., and Soto. There is a real, genuine conversation that if not for Witt Jr., Henderson would be the unquestioned best shortstop in the American League through just two seasons.
Adding weight to that argument is the totality of Henderson’s work. Since cracking the Orioles Opening Day roster in 2023, Henderson is sixth in fWAR, seventh in runs, 15th in wRC+, and 17th in OPS and wOBA while playing 309 games, 20th-most in baseball.
After all of that, there’s not much more to say about Henderson’s acumen. Could he be a better fielder – he finished in the 59th percentile in OAA in 2024 and 58th in 2023? Yes. Unquestionably. And his failures in the field have cost the Orioles numerous times. Is his 23.9% career strikeout rate a touch too high? Sure. Would it be nice to see more from him in the playoffs? Well, yes, and that sentiment rings true for every bat and arm on the Orioles. Yet that’s where the list stops and starts arguably.
Henderson is productive, he’s present and is doing so on a team whose second fiddles would be fourth on other contenders.
The Age: Henderson’s timeline fits perfectly. He debuted in the major leagues as a newly minted 21-year-old and will be just 28 when he hits the market. A 12, 13, or even 14-year deal isn’t out of the question, especially if Henderson’s market is hot.
The Interest: Henderson’s market will be lively, assuming he maintains his current production over the next six years. His fielding will likely cost him something — especially if he stays at short — but it’s hard to think defensive inadequacies could kill him when stonehanded Soto just received the heftiest payday in MLB history. Does he carry the sex appeal or the five-tool possibility of De La Cruz? No. What he does have, though, is a floor higher than 90% of his contemporaries.
The Likelihood: Perhaps this answer’s obvious, but Henderson is the front-runner in the race to $700 million. Few in the game have his hit tool, power, and potential, and even fewer have matched his accomplishments at his age.
The Acumen: Much has been made of the Houston Astros‘ success over the last five years and much credit’s been given. Jose Altuve gets applause, as does Dusty Baker, and Yordan Alvarez, who effortlessly strung legendary moments together one after another. Even Jeremy Pena looked as clutch as Carlos Correa during the 2022 postseason. Kyle Tucker’s name is often absent from those conversations. And it makes absolutely, positively, no sense.
It should go without saying that Tucker, a three-time All-Star and newly-made Chicago Cub, is one of the best players in baseball. Yet it needs to be restated due to his relative anonymity. First up on his resume? A .878 OPS since 2022 that’s ninth in baseball. Below that mark, you’ll find that Tucker is eighth in wRC+ during that time, 10th in wOBA, and 16th in fWAR. The only players better than him in most of these categories are MVPs or those who’ve always finished in the discussion for the award: Judge, Soto, Ohtani, Acuna Jr., Betts, etc.
And it’s not as if Tucker is riding one season. No, he’s riding a year-by-year wave. In 2022, he had a .808 OPS, in 2023 a .886, and while injuries derailed his 2024 campaign, Tucker still posted a staggering .993 OPS in 78 games. Before missing almost three months starting on June 3, Tucker stood third in wRC+ and fifth in OPS and wOBA. He was jettying to a place in the AL MVP conversation. While those three months away were long, rust never manifested in Tucker’s game when he returned. In 18 September games, he hit .365/.453/.587 with four home runs, nine RBI, and a 1.041 OPS.
To put perspective to those 2024 numbers, let’s phrase it like this: Despite playing in less than half of the 2024 season, Tucker finished second on the team in fWAR.
Some of this can be called into question by the offensive infrastructure Tucker had. After all, life is much easier when in the same lineup as Alex Bregman, Altuve, Alvarez, and as of late Yainer Diaz. But then why hasn’t Pena made a similar leap from a quality everyday player to one of the best in the game?
The simple answer here is pound-for-pound Tucker is just as good offensively as the two $700 million men he’ll be chasing this offseason. You may not know his name, but you will after his next contract leads SportsCenter a year from now.
The Age: Thankfully, Tucker’s age is easy. He just turned 28 in January, meaning he’ll either be 28 or 29 when he signs. Though this doesn’t make Tucker some ancient Sumerian relic, it deeply affects his chances of reaching $700 million. The most likely scenario for him is a 10 or 11-year deal. Barring an obscene AAV, he’ll fall far short of the $700 million mark.
The Interest: Will there be enough interest in Tucker to fan the flames? Based on the amount of teams interested in trading for him, the answer could be yes. Everyone from the Yankees, eventual-winners Cubs, Giants, and Phillies were tied to the outfielder this offseason.
What else do these teams have in common? Deep pockets. The Yankees went over $700 million in pursuit of Soto, the Cubs despite what the Ricketts tell you can make an equal offer, and the Giants have tried to lure big names to the bay since dinosaurs roamed the Earth. Absent from this list, but another possible player is the Boston Red Sox. The team went hard after Soto. Could Tucker, whose skillset is just as stellar, make sense? Even if three of these teams are in the fight, it bodes well for the former Astro.
The Likelihood: Tucker is arguably just as talented as Soto. He even offers similar defensive limitations at times. What he doesn’t possess, however, is time. Given his age this time next winter, the term won’t be there to push him over that threshold. If Tucker has any chance, it relies on talent. Thankfully, he has it in spades.
The Acumen: Paul Skenes‘ rookie season is a thing of legend. A first overall pick so bright he propels media attention to the Pittsburgh Pirates of all teams and puts himself into the Cy Young conversation. It cannot be understated what Skenes did or how unlikely we’ll see it again soon.
Lost amidst the glory, is another rookie just as good and worthy of the NL Rookie of the Year award Skenes claimed – Jackson Merrill.
Here’s a list of stats from Merrill’s first season – good luck making sense of it all: a .292 average, .236 OBP, .500 slugging percentage, .826 OPS, 130 wRC+, and 5.3 fWAR. That’s in addition to 24 home runs, 90 RBI, 31 doubles, 16 steals, and 277 total bases. Along the way, Merrill nabbed an All-Star appearance, Silver Slugger, and a ninth-place finish in the NL MVP voting. Below the rookie in MVP voting were Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, Mookie Betts, and Merrill’s teammate, Manny Machado.
It is a bonkers first season in the majors. Just ludicrous.
Merrill didn’t just transform the Padres offense, though. He also transformed himself. Merrill rose through the minors as an infielder, playing 178 games and 1,468.2 innings at short. Yet by the time spring training rolled around, the Padres had him blocked. Xander Bogaerts and his $280 million deal wasn’t leaving the infield, nor was reigning Gold Glover Ha-Seong Kim. So San Diego split Merrill from his comforts and sent him to the outfield. It was an unexpected, borderline crazy concept.
Yet Merill took the center field grass easily. He’d finish 2024 in the 97th percentile in OAA with eight assists and just three errors. Likewise, he’d finish 10th in Baseball Savant’s Fielding Run-Value among all outfielders with at least 750 innings in center. Four of the nine players ahead of Merrill in the stat were Gold Glove finalists.
In layman’s terms, Merrill wields a Silver Slugger bat and a Gold Glove-caliber mitt. He’s unironically and without a hint of sarcasm, everything anyone could ever want in a player.
The Age: The closest player to Soto in terms of age at major league debut on this list? Merrill. The infielder-turned-outfielder debuted as a 20-year-old at the start of the 2024 season, and as a result, will only be 28-and-a-half when his free agency starts. It’s a major notch in his feather.
The Interest: Merrill won’t have to look far for eventual suitors thanks to his well-rounded skillset. Every team would love to have him, and if he keeps it up – will move Heaven and Earth in pursuit of him in five years.
The Likelihood: Merrill still has many rivers to cross. He must do it again, add more walks to his game, and keep working on his craft. But there’s little evidence thus far to think he’s anything less than a sterling ballplayer.
The Acumen: Where other players on this list have two, three – and in Tucker’s case – five years of experience to go off of, James Wood doesn’t have a single full season at the MLB level. That season, however, earns him a place here.
In 79 games, Wood hit .264/.354/.427 with nine home runs, 41 RBI, 13 doubles, 14 steals, a .781 OPS, and a 120 wRC+. While solid, Wood’s numbers impressed far more in the second half of the season. Over his final 65 games – a stretch more representative of his season – Wood hit .269/.359/.450 with a .809 OPS and 127 wRC+. The difference isn’t seismic, but it illustrates how strong Wood closed out his inaugural campaign.
That final notion makes Wood an exceptional candidate. He did all this as a rookie without tapping into his power potential.
When you first look at Wood, you see a 6’7″ giant. His size alone makes one imagine he’s a slugger, but he’s not, touting a 2.7% home-run rate and a .163 ISO. At this point, he’s opted for a contact-first approach. A reason for this is Wood’s weight. Where Judge, a fellow 6’7″ outfielder, weighs 282 lbs, and Giancarlo Stanton, who stands at 6’6″ is 245 lbs, Wood measures in at 234. For added context, Wood was 30 pounds skinnier in 2024 than Ronel Blanco and Brusdar Graterol and was listed at the same weight as Justin Verlander.
Muscle will come with time for the 22-year-old outfielder. And when it does, it’ll be supplemented by 52.0% HardHit rate, which would’ve ranked 14th in all of baseball if Wood had enough at-bats to qualify. We’re talking about a player capable of 20-30 home runs annually, if not more. Combining that skillset with Wood’s established contact ability could make him a special, elite hitter.
But there’s no guarantee Wood will go beyond what time allows physically. An integral part of his game thus far has been his speed. Wood notched 76 doubles and 58 steals throughout his four minor league seasons, largely thanks to his wheels. Those tires translated to the MLB, with Wood finishing 2024 with a 28.7 mph sprint speed – equal to an 85th-percentile finish. Adding weight to Wood’s body would come at a cost. Are four, five, 10 fewer doubles worth seven or six more home runs? Should the Nationals ask a player to remake the approach that got him here in the first place? And how could they when nothing is wrong with Wood’s game as is?
It’s an interesting conundrum in the nation’s capital. Wood might go from a questionable addition to this list to a no-brainer if they can find a middle ground.
The Age: While Wood’s story bears many similarities to Soto’s, they differ in age. Soto began his career as a 19-year-old and didn’t turn 20 until his rookie season finished. On the other hand, Wood was already 21 by his July 1, 2024 debut and would turn 22 before the season closed. Free agency won’t be available to him until he’s 29, three years older than Soto was.
The Interest: It’s hard to answer what level of interest Wood might have on the market. Especially when he’s so far away — not just from reaching it, but from touching his potential. He could add power to his game, rocket off shots over the fences at National Park, and be everything the team ever dreamed of when they acquired him. Or, he could stay a capable, well-above-average yet never elite hitter. Whether he reaches the former or the latter will be paramount.
The Likelihood: Given the many question marks surrounding Wood and his age, it’s impossible to give him more than a 5% chance of making $700 million.
One thing to include here is that 700 mil becomes a less and less high of a bar to clear with the passing of time. Inflation devalues contracts by a few percent each year and, recently, contract growth has outstripped inflation.
A 700 mil contract this year is worth 672 mil next year, etc. By the time that someone like Henderson reaches FA, the present day value of their 700 mil contract is probably more like 550 mil, which is a much more reasonable bar to clear (and reason why I think that he has a decent shot at getting there, even if I doubt he’ll be the quality of FA that Soto was!)