Hello and welcome back to Deep League Risers and Fallers. Nate Kosher has helmed this article for the last couple of weeks, so it has been a while since you’ve heard from me. We’ve seen a bunch of call-ups since then. Connor Norby, Adam Mazur, Hurston Waldrep, and Cade Povich to name a few. None of these guys have really hit the ground running so far, as 2024 continues to be a tough season for rookies. It just goes to show that baseball is still hard and that the jump from AA or AAA is still huge. But we’ve got the bad news coming first, so let’s not dwell on the streams that killed our ERAs last week.
Fallers
Taj Bradley, Starting Pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays – 36% Rostered
This has not been the breakout season I was hoping to see from Taj. He finished 2023 with pretty gnarly surface stats; a 5.59 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. But his tantalizing strikeout potential, combined with a strong walk rate and the Rays’ history of excellent pitcher development had many people, including me, pretty hyped for Bradley this season. 129 strikeouts and 39 walks over 104 innings is nothing to sneeze at.
The good news is that he is allowing fewer baserunners in 2024, with his WHIP dropping to 1.18, and he’s still piling up Ks with 39 in 31 innings. Bradley has even cut his walk rate from 8.5% to 7.6%. The bad news is his ERA is still sitting at 5.17. Taj has one big problem, and that problem is big fly balls.
To begin with, he allows more than his fair share of fly balls. Last year he was just a little worse than average, with about 24% of the balls in play against him hit in the air. This year that number has ballooned to 37% (MLB average is 23.6%). His ground ball rate, which we usually want to see high, has dropped from 36.4% to just 30.9% (MLB average for ground ball rate is 44.6% so that one is pretty egregious as well).
But it’s not just that he’s allowing too many fly balls, it’s also the quality of those fly balls. His pop fly rate has dropped, from 11.7% to 4.9%, and his homerun/fly ball rate, which was bad last year at 22.5%, is even worse this year at 24.2%, ranking in the bottom 5% of all MLB pitchers. Bradley has allowed eight home runs in just six starts on the season and is allowing more than two long balls per nine innings.
Part of me wants to say “Hey, the Ks are there, and the walks have not been a problem, the Rays will figure this out”. But for now, I’m taking the wait-and-see approach. I would probably take his next start coming up vs the Cubs at home, but I’m not comfortable recommending Bradley as a buy-low candidate right now.
Dylan Moore, Second, Third, Short, and Outfield, Seattle Mariners – 22% Rostered
Moore set deep leagues on fire and deep leaguer hearts a flutter during his scorching May. The super utility player slashed .241/.362/.517 with five homers, three steals, and 28 combined runs and RBI over 27 May games. Those counting stats play anywhere, and he didn’t even ding your batting average, coming in almost perfectly in line with the league’s .240 mark.
But Moore has hit a June swoon, as he’s slashed just .160/.233/.200 with no homers and only one swipe thus far into the month. The batting average spike in May was likely an aberration, as Moore carries a career .209 average, but he generally walks at an above-average rate, and we love him for what else he provides, namely steals and dingers.
Moore is actually hitting the ball harder than he has the past four seasons, and he’s cut down his ground ball and pop-up rates while increasing his rate of line drives and fly balls. He’s also cut his strikeout rate down from 33.9% last year to just 25.1% this year, which is a massive improvement, and far better than his career 29.8% rate.
Moore honestly looks like a better hitter this season than he has the past few years, and with the league batting average so low, he’s no longer such a drag on that specific category. I think he’s just in a bit of a slump right now and could be a good candidate to provide steals and a bit of pop the rest of the way.
Braxton Garrett, Starting Pitcher, Miami Marlins – 41% Rostered
Garrett was one of the approximately 3000 Marlin pitchers to start the season on the IL. But after he posted a 3.66 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 156 strikeouts with just 29 walks over 159.2 innings during his first full MLB season as a 25-year-old, fantasy managers who had stashed him were likely pretty happy to see him finally debut in mid-May.
Garrett looked pretty rusty, allowing 11 runs in just under 10 innings over his first two starts, but then looked to have righted the ship, tossing a CGSO at Arizona, followed by a five-inning win against the Padres where he allowed just one run. Garrett allowed just ten hits and issued zero walks in those two wins. So it was a bit surprising to see him get beat up by Tampa last week. The Rays currently sport the league’s fourth-worst offense in terms of both OPS and runs scored.
As it stands, Garrett carries a disappointing 5.81 ERA and 1.21 WHIP across five starts. He was in the bottom fifth of the league in exit velocity allowed, and bottom tenth in hard hit percentage last season and both of those rates have gotten worse in the small sample we’ve seen this season. He is currently allowing the highest average exit velocity in the league, and his hard rate is not much better. Furthermore, his strikeout rate, which was just about spot-on league average has also dipped a bit. On the brighter side, it’s still a very small sample, at just 26.1 innings, and Garrett is still adept at limiting free passes and inducing ground balls, ranking near the top 5% of MLB pitchers in both metrics.
I did move on from Garrett in shallower leagues following the Tampa game since I wanted nothing to do with his next start coming up against the surging Mets offense, but it was a tough cut. Groundball percentage and K/BB ratios are two of my favorite rates to look at when trying to gauge future success, and Garrett is very good at both of those things. If the NYM start does indeed go poorly, that might be the perfect time to make an offer or scoop him off of waivers.
Risers
Kevin Pillar, Outfielder, Los Angeles Angels – 31% Rostered
What in the fountain of youth is happening in LA? Kevin Pillar has never carried an OPS over .800 through a full campaign. His best year was the shortened 2020 season in which he slashed .288/.336/.462 over just 54 games for a .798 OPS. Pillar’s high water mark outside of that was just .719 over a full-size season in 2019.
But now at the ripe old age of 35, Pillar is slashing .381/.422/.667 with six dingers and four steals in just 84 at-bats over 25 games since joining the Halos. That’s an OPS of 1.089 (did that math in my head!) Prior to that, Pillar clocked 32 plate appearances for the White Sox, in which he slashed just .160/.290/.360. He isn’t even playing every day, having only started five of the Angels eight games thus far in June. And he’s on the shorter side of that platoon as he carries an OPS of .796 vs righties, compared to his 1.237 mark vs lefties.
So what do we do with a 35-year-old, part-time player, who is mostly mashing lefties? Well, like 70% of fantasy leagues are currently doing, we ignore it. Pillar is not suddenly Nelson Cruz or Barry Bonds in his mid-30s. His average exit velocity is an uninspiring 86.5 MPH. His hard-hit rate is well below league average, he doesn’t walk much, and does not even get the benefit of playing in a strong offense, as the Angles are in the bottom third in runs scored. If you currently roster Pillar and got most or any of this outburst, congratulations. Now, try to get a closer, or a slumping bat or arm you believe will turn it around in the second half. Sell, sell, sell!
Rowdy Tellez, First Base, Pittsburgh Pirates – 1% Rostered
Rowdy has been a lightning rod for criticism in Pittsburgh. It began before he struggled to a .198/.283/.259 line in April. Pirate fans had unreasonable hopes that a bigger-name free agent, specifically Rhys Hoskins, would be signed out of free agency and fill the team’s long-standing hole at first base. Instead, the former Phils slugger signed in Milwaukee for a two-year, $34 million dollar contract. I do feel the need to remind any fellow Yinzers reading this that an identical offer from the Pirates almost certainly would not have been enough to bring Hoskins to Pittsburgh.
I personally didn’t mind the Rowdy signing. He opened the 2023 campaign on a high note, posting a .247/.333/.553 line with eight homers and 20 RBI in his first 25 games, before injuries derailed his season. But it has taken the big slugger a while to get going. He hit just one home run and held a .463 OPS at the end of May.
Pirate fans suddenly knew how many years were left on the contracts of every first baseman in the league and whispered that Vlad Guerrero would look good in black and gold. (He would, but seriously 0% chance of that). Instead, help came from within the organization.
Since the start of June, Rowdy Tellez is slashing .529/.579/.882 with one homer and seven runs driven in. Yes, it’s a very small size, but the big slugger is still hitting the ball harder than average with a 90.1 MPH average exit velocity and a 42.5% hard-hit rate. He is just 29 years old and slugged 35 home runs in 2022. Rowdy is most likely available in your league and he’s scorching hot right now. He might sit against some left-handed starters, but if you need a power bat, give Rowdy a shot.
Nick Senzel, Third Base and Outfield, Washington Nationals – 3% Rostered
It feels like Senzel has been around forever, but he’s just 28 years old. Maybe time moves more slowly when you’re waiting for a guy to get off the IL. Senzel has certainly spent his fair share of time hurt and/or rehabbing since his debut back in 2019. His career high for games played is just 110, back in 2022, and his best season was his rookie campaign, where he slashed .256/.315/.427 over 104 contests.
But Senzel is healthy and hitting in his first season as a Nat. He carries a .791 OPS on the season (which would best his career high by about 50 points) and has been hot lately, slashing .294/.429/.529 over the past two weeks.
He’s never had great exit velocity, with a career average of 87.4 MPH, and he’s below that mark this year, sitting at just 85.5 MPH. His hard-hit rate is similarly unimpressive at just 31.7%, ranking in the league’s bottom sixth. He’s also striking out at his highest rate since his rookie season. His biggest area of improvement is actually his walk rate. Senzel has a career walk rate of 8.4% which is dead on league average, but this season, he’s drawing free passes at a truly elite 14.6%! That is the ninth-best walk rate in the Majors this season.
Even though the underlying rates suggest a lack of power, I’m pretty optimistic that Senzel can keep hitting. He’s got a BABIP of .284, so he’s not getting by on luck, and his excellent chase and walk rates suggest a more developed eye and approach at the plate. This is a former 2nd overall pick and top prospect who has dealt with a litany of injuries over his career. Player development is not usually linear and Senzel is as good a candidate as anyone for a later-career breakout season. Like Rowdy, he probably won’t cost you anything more than a roster spot if you need help in the outfield or at the hot corner.
Thank you for reading, and good luck out there Deep Leaguers!