If relegation were a part of the MLB the Rockies would surely be in a lower league. I’m from Denver, so for whatever reason, I root for the boys in purple cause it’s good to root for your home team, or so I’m told. But each season rooting for the home team at 20th and Blake is like that machine in Princess Bride where Corky St. Clair takes a year off your life; it’s close to torture.

2024 is going to be no different I’m afraid. 2023 showed a few bright spots, but until there is a change in ownership, the Rockies play baseball in Denver to fill the stadium with transplants and to yell TONIGHT when Charlie Blackmon is up.

However, there are a few names worth mentioning ahead of the 2024 fantasy draft. As always, many of the names here will be hitters, because, well, Coors.

I made everyone a meme.

 

Sleepers

 

Ezequiel Tovar

2023 stats (615 PA): .253/.287/.408 | 79 R | 73 RBI | 15 HR | 11 SB

 

There is a strange phenomenon that happens with the Rockies that I’ve observed throughout my life. When the organization anoints a position player (position players only, it has never worked with a pitcher, maybe Ubaldo Jiménez) the next big thing, it usually works. There are only two misses I can think of since the 90s and that’s Ian Stewart and Brendan Rodgers. As a kid, it was Todd Helton, in my early teens it was Troy Tulowitzki and the aforementioned Ian Stewart, late teens it was Nolan Arenado, 20s it was Trevor Story, I think you get the picture. The Rockies have a knack for actually developing a position player or two, but I’m going to continue calling it a phenomenon.

Ezequiel Tovar is the first player since Story left and Rodgers fizzled, that I saw Bud Black and the organization anoint as the next Rockies stud. And, I have to agree with them.

The above stat line isn’t thrilling but we have to remember that Tovar was 21 for just about all of the 2023 season. Tovar’s issue is an issue that many young players have; he is overly aggressive at the plate. And when I say overly, I mean it, in a big way. Let’s look at a PLV stat, Swing Aggression (How much more often a hitter swings at pitches, given the swing likelihoods of the pitches they face).

He’s living at about 13% above the expected swing percentage. And for this graph, I am showing all types of pitches. This isn’t a case of swinging at too many breaking balls, Tovar swings at everything. Free swingers can have success, sure, but to improve upon his meh 2023, Tovar needs to become a more patient hitter, full stop.

That’s the bad. But there is good. The first, when he swings at pitches in the zone, he’s making contact. His Z-Contact% (contact within the zone) sits at 84.7% which is just a touch below the league average of around 87%. This is a good sign, when Tovar swings at pitches he can do something with, he’s making contact.

What about his quality of contact? His 88.6 MPH average exit velocity is by no means elite, but it’s also not terrible. MLB average is about 91 MPH so we are once again looking at a player that is falling under the MLB average category.

This is why I’m buying Tovar for 2024. He was average last year, there is no other way to put it. But, he was 21, remember that. Finding success at the major league level when 21 is very difficult. He’s going to fill out leading to a better quality of contact, and if he can become more patient, well then Dick Monfort may have his next star to anger.

He was close to a 20-20 season last year and I think it is more than in the cards for 2024. His average ADP is sitting at 195 right now and I don’t see this changing much. He’s going to play every day and for the price, I like the potential.

 

Brendan Rodgers

2023 stats (192 PA): .258/.313/.388 | 21 R |20 RBI | 4 HR | 0 SB

 

It was a lost season for Brendan Rodgers. Before the 2023 season even began, Rodgers injured his shoulder and at the time, it was viewed as season-ending. He was able to play two months of baseball at the end of the year, but it was clear he was still feeling the effects of the injury.

The once-top prospect has not panned out as the Rockies had hoped, but he’s still just 27 so there is time to improve.

Rodgers was semi-breaking out in 2022 and I think now that he’s healthy, he can continue becoming a positive baseball player. In 2022 he slashed .266/.325/.408 with 13 HRs, 63  RBIs, and 72 Rs (he does not steal, ever). This isn’t eye-popping, but it felt like a positive step toward becoming a possible 20-25 home run guy with great run and RBI totals.

The possible breakout in 2022 was propelled by his expected stats looking strong, especially his xSLG of .434.

Rodgers also hits the ball hard, sitting at about league average for EV and above average for Max EV.

The chart above is, from left to right, Max EV, EV, FB EV, and LA (launch angle) for 2022 and 2023. That launch angle needs to be improved but in a venue like Coors, low launch angle line drives can still go out of the park, especially for right-handed hitters.

There isn’t a ton of evidence here for a must-roster player, I understand that. And he has some injury history already in his young career. The reason I bring up Rodgers is because he is going to be free come draft day. His ADP right now is 535. Why not take a shot on a player who is going to play every day, and at a position, second base, that thins out quickly?

 

Nolan Jones

2023 stats (424 PA): .297/.389/.542 | 60 R | 62 RBI | 20 HR | 20 SB

 

I’m not going to spend a ton of time on Nolan Jones because I almost don’t view him as a sleeper anymore due to an early ADP of 58. He’s in a new category, somewhere between and sleeper and a bust, a buster.

Nolan Jones was insane in 2023. The stat line above is across 106 games. A full year of Jones could be a 30-30 player with top-tier counting stats.

The EVs and expected numbers back up his fantastic rookie season as well. His xAVG takes a hit but everything else is in line.

He’s looking like the real deal. The reason I am not going to go too in-depth here is that ADP of 58. That places him firmly in the 5th round and I’ve seen mock drafts where managers take him as high as the 3rd round.

It feels like getting Jones at a discount was stolen from us. I mentioned this in my previous article, but the outfield is very weak heading into 2024. Being that the outfield is so weak, it is driving up players like Nolan Jones into the early rounds.

I’m not sure I want to pay the price of a 5th rounder on Jones, but I wanted to mention him here instead of in the busts because I do believe he is going to be very good. Are you brave enough to draft him that early is the question?

 

Busts

 

Kris Bryant

2023 stats (335 PA): .233/.313/.367 | 36 R | 31 RBI | 10 HR | 0 SB

 

Heading into 2023 there was some hope that Kris Bryant could turn it around in a Rockies uniform. After a very disappointing first season in purple, Bryant followed it up with a somehow worse season in 2023.

Bryant played 42 games in 2022 and 80 games in 2023. At least in 2022 when healthy, he produced a decent slash line of .306/.376/.475, but that took a step back in 2023 where he dipped to .233/.313/.367. That is a massive dip.

He’s never been a player who produces massive EVs or Max EVs, even in the seasons where he saw success. Bryant’s value is in a high OBP and in his younger years, being able to hit home runs thanks to enough power and a statistically strong launch angle. I do want to point out that his expected stats were much better than what was produced in 2023.

This could mean that yes, he had a down year last year, and he was also unlucky.

He’s a bust for 2024 because of his health. In his first two seasons in Coors, Bryant has shown that he is unable to stay healthy for a full season. This of course could change, he could play around 140 games in 2024 and be back to his Cubs numbers. Even though his ADP is sitting at 273, I think there are better late-round dart throws that will give a team the most important stat; availability.

 

Cal Quantrill

2023 Stats (99.2): 5.24 ERA | 1.46 WHIP | 58 K | 4 W

 

I don’t know if I even need to write this or if I should just point to the meme above.

When I saw the Rockies claimed Cal Quantrill off waivers all I could think was “Poor guy.”

Quantrill was injured for most of the 2023 season and when he came back, he did not look like his impressive 2022. He is a sinker/cutter pitcher who works in a splitter and curveball as outpitches. Sinker pitchers have had success in Coors Field, see Aaron Cook,  but it’s a philosophy in pitching that shows the idiocy of the Rockies front office. Their philosophy still is to have a pitcher who throws to contact, and the contact is on the ground. Not the worst idea but the problem is, a pitcher who throws sinkers isn’t always going to produce a groundball. Rockies Park Factor is 112 which is by far the highest in the MLB. A high Park Factor means it is easy to score runs.

Coors is not a home run park (HR factor of 95, 16th overall), especially now with the higher right-field fence. Coors is a BABIP park. The outfield is massive, singles become doubles and every bloop falls in.

Drafting Rockies pitchers is never a good idea. But since Quantrill has had success in the past in Cleveland, maybe there was some thinking they could get him on the cheap in 2024 and he could get some quality starts. Just avoid him at all costs, it may get ugly.