Every week, the Pitcher List team will publish an update to our power rankings, reviewing the biggest risers and fallers of the past seven days. As always, the full rankings can be found at the bottom of this article … but where’s the fun in that?
Movin’ On Up
Record: 80-60
Rank change: +4 (6 from 10)
It is Tuesday, August 27th. The Royals had just beaten the Guardians 6-1 to take the first three games of a four-game set at Progressive Field in Cleveland. The AL Central is knotted up at the top.
Since that moment, the Guardians have won five of seven – including two of three against the Royals in Kansas City – while the Royals suffered a seven-game losing skid before mercifully sweating out a 4-1 win over the Guardians on Wednesday.
Cleveland has rebuilt its 4.5-game lead in the division in the blink of an eye. It’s like there was nothing to worry about.
AL Central Divisional odds have been fun over the past week or so pic.twitter.com/Nz9oVpHWTG
— Tanner McGrath (@tannerstruth) September 5, 2024
While the offense slurs (94 wRC+ over the past month), I’m bullish on the rotation additions of Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd. Cleveland has too many fastball-heavy fly-ball pitchers, producing disastrous results in the new homer-friendly Progressive Field (112 Home Run factor this season, sixth in MLB) – Cleveland starting pitchers have MLB’s 10th-lowest ground-ball rate (40%) and third-highest HR/FB rate (14%), an obviously poor combination.
But Cobb has produced a 58% ground-ball rate and 0.75 HR/9 since the beginning of 2021 (410 IP). Granted, two of those years were with San Francisco — Oracle Park has a 79 Home Run factor over the past three seasons, the lowest among MLB stadiums — but it’s better than what Cleveland had before. Meanwhile, Boyd’s command looks much better in his first four starts this year (103 Location+), helping his pitch-to-contact ability and boosting his batted-ball profile.
The Guardians should make the postseason, and their league-best bullpen shouldn’t falter. Hopefully, the lineup will come around, and Cobb/Boyd will significantly bolster the rotation.
Record: 70-70
Rank change: +3 (16 from 19)
The Tigers record by month this season:
- March/April: 17-13 (.567)
- May: 11-16 (.407)
- June: 10-17 (.370)
- July: 14-11 (.560)
- August: 17-11 (.607)
The pitching staff is overperforming, posting a 2.60 ERA over the past month behind a .240 BABIP allowed. While Tarik Skubal will rightfully win the Cy Young (as one Pitcher List writer expected in the pre-season), expect regression in the coming weeks before the Motor City Kitties are eliminated.
Although, don’t expect them to go down without a fight. The Tigers have the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule in MLB (.468, per Tankathon), with three-game sets against the White Sox, Rockies and A’s remaining. They’re only 5.5 games back of the — checks notes — Royals for the third wild-card slot.
Hittin’ the Skids
Record: 76-65
Rank change: -3 (12 from 9)
See above.
How do you lose seven straight with your season on the line? In this case, the bullpen blew up, allowing 19 earned in 19 innings during the losing streak. Lucas Erceg recorded back-to-back losses by allowing four runs across four outs against the Guardians and Astros. James McArthur earned the loss the night following those two blown leads, allowing the game-winning double to Jose Altuve in the ninth inning.
Jose Altuve's #walkoff double sends @Astros fans home happy 🚀 pic.twitter.com/NwxASyWwXg
— MLB (@MLB) August 31, 2024
The Royals don’t have a reliable pitching staff. The bullpen is a mess – a unit built around McArthur, Chris Stratton, Angel Zerpa, and John Schrieber would never work – and the rotation has overperformed all season (3.64 ERA, 3.94 xFIP). Aside from Cole Ragans, how much faith do you have in Seth Lugo (3.05 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 3.90 xFIP), Brady Singer (3.35 ERA, 4.39 xERA, 3.58 xFIP), Michael Wacha (3.50 ERA, 4.30 xERA, 4.19 xFIP) and Alec Marsh (4.75 ERA, 4.39 xFIP).
The lineup can be deadly behind Bobby Witt Jr., Still, the Royals can’t hit lefties (95 wRC+), struggle on the road (93 wRC+), and will be missing Vinnie Pasquantino for a significant amount of time – a brutal blow to a top-heavy lineup.
The Royals still have a 5.5-game lead for the third wild-card spot – mainly because Boston has collapsed and Detroit built itself too large a hole – but I worry about the team’s construction come playoff time.
I’m also pretty sure they will only sneak into the dance, given the Royals have the American League’s second-toughest remaining strength of schedule (.514, per Tankathon), with three-game sets left against the Yankees, Braves and Twins.
Record: 80-60
Rank change: -3 (5 from 2)
You can’t lose three straight series to Washington, St. Louis and Texas while blowing your divisional lead over the Orioles and expect to avoid the Skids List.
The Yanks’ remaining strength of schedule is the third-toughest in the American League (.504, per Tankathon), with important series remaining against Baltimore, Chicago (NL), Kansas City and Boston.
Featured image by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)