2025 Breakout Dynasty Prospects

This is undoubtedly my favorite article to write each year. What better way to conclude an off-season of research, scouting, and lots of article writing than to analyze and write up three prospects I fell in love with? Of course, it is easy to fall in love with prospects like Nick Kurtz and Kristian Campbell. This article however looks at three prospects who have yet to put everything fully together. All three of these prospects identified below are widely available in dynasty leagues and are poised for a breakout 2025 season

 

2025 Breakout Prospects

 

Sabin Ceballos – 3B, SFG

 

Sabin Ceballos took a unique path to professional baseball. Originally from Puerto Rico, Ceballos attended a JuCo in Texas prior to heading to Oregon for a single collegiate season. Ceballos hit .333 with 18 home runs in his lone Division I season before being selected in the third round of the 2023 draft by the Braves. Standing at 6’3”, Ceballos has a violent and powerful right-handed swing that the Braves hoped would make him a significant home run threat. While Ceballos’ batting average carried over to the pros, Ceballos’ power never seemed to come together. That is, until a midseason trade that sent him to San Francisco.

Making a push for the playoffs and in need of reinforcements, the Braves acquired Jorge Soler from the Giants. The baseball world primarily viewed this as a salary dump by the Giants, with the only return being Ceballos. That will not be how this trade is remembered in a few years. Ceballos’ offensive production took off following the trade. After hitting a total of five home runs in 567 plate appearances with the Braves organization, Ceballos rushed seven in just 140 plate appearances with the Giants’ High-A affiliate. His 600-plate-appearance pace with Eugene was 30 home runs. With the boost in power also came a .295 batting average and a 10.7% walk rate. Dynasty managers should get ready for the Ceballos breakout in 2025.

The Giants unlocked a new level of offensive production with Ceballos. This all boils down to his swing. As mentioned already, Ceballos stands at 6’3”. He packs a powerful swing that has a lot of moving pieces. His hands are twitchy at the top as he settles in. He utilizes an open stance to help tap into his pull-side power consistently. The issue with Atlanta was not poor contact skills, but rather poor timing. Ceballos’ timing never seemed quite right at the plate, as balls he could easily crush for home runs would be fouled off too routinely. The timing issue comes down to his lower half. With Atlanta, Ceballos had a huge leg kick. The leg kick for a 6’3” hitter with plenty of raw power is unnecessary. San Francisco tweaked his stance, shedding the leg kick in favor of a toe tap. With that, Ceballos’ timing completely changed.

Ceballos’ second-half surge was more than just a small sample. There are tangible changes here that dynasty managers can point to with excitement for what the future has in store. The best part about Ceballos is that his profile is more than just power. Ceballos has a natural feel for driving the ball. His line drive rates in professional baseball have been excellent. This, combined with above-average contact rates, should lead to strong batting averages in the future. His patient approach helps create a stable on-base floor as well. He profiles as a future middle-of-the-order bat, and he should be able to stick at third base defensively. The only thing Ceballos will not provide is very many stolen bases.

Ceballos is about to have a monster 2025 season. A full year of training with his new team and a new batting stance should unlock even more potential in his profile. There is 30+ home run upside here with strong batting averages. You can argue that Ceballos already had a mini breakout in the back half of 2024. Well, nobody is paying him any attention heading into 2025. Dynasty managers should get in on him now before it is too late.

 

Jaxon Wiggins – SP, CHC

 

The shortened COVID draft was the primary reason that Jaxon Wiggins was not selected by a major league team coming out of high school. Instead, Wiggins attended Arkansas University, where he struggled for two seasons, bouncing between the bullpen and starting rotation. Things got worse for Wiggins when he suffered an elbow injury and underwent Tommy John surgery. He missed his entire junior season. The Cubs still saw enough upside to take him in the second round of the draft that season and have been patient with him ever since. He did not make his professional debut until May 10 of last season. Now, with one season under his belt and a fully healthy off-season, Wiggins is ready to explode in 2025.

The Cubs have been very careful with Wiggins. Once he finally returned to the mound, Wiggins was used in very short stints at the Complex Level. He did not make it through two innings in any of his first three starts. He did not pitch more than three innings until June 20 in Low-A. By the end of the year, Wiggins wound up making 18 starts with 59.2 innings pitched. The encouraging part was his usage toward the end of the season. As Wiggins got stretched out, the Cubs took the training wheels off. He pitched five innings in three of his final five starts.

As the Cubs grew less cautious with Wiggins, he became more comfortable on the mound. Any pitcher who has not pitched in over two calendar years is going to be rusty. This showed as Wiggins owned a 10.29 ERA after his first four starts. From that point forward, Wiggins settled in nicely. He posted a 3.59 ERA across his final 14 starts while striking out 29.6% of the batters he faced. Control was always the biggest concern even prior to the injury, but even that looked much improved as the season moved along. Following the rough first four starts, Wiggins lowered his walk rate to 11.1%. Positive progression in his first professional season is all dynasty managers can ask for in a pitching prospect. Wiggins showed that.

From a stuff standpoint, Wiggins has what it takes to become an impactful dynasty arm. His fastball sits comfortably in the upper 90s, touching 98. Wiggins’ delivery comes straight over the top, which, when paired with his 6’6” frame, makes it look like Wiggins is throwing down at the batter. His hard slider has the ability to be a plus offering when Wiggins has a feel for it, and he mixes in an upper-70s curve that has big vertical break. Studying Wiggins’ game action, his stuff appears to get stronger as the game moves along. An instant positive is his ability to maintain his elite fastball velocity deep into games. On top of that, his feel for his breaking pitches improves the longer he is on the mound. Getting into rhythm in two-inning spurts is difficult for young starters. Wiggins should not have that problem in 2025.

Dynasty managers should enter 2025 with high expectations about what Wiggins will become. Predicting breakout prospects is all about identifying upside. Identifying a future replacement-level player is not very exciting. That is not what Wiggins projects to be. His fastball alone is enough to give him significant upside. Pairing that with two secondaries that could become plus offerings gives him even more. The Cubs will likely continue to be careful with Wiggins in 2025, but he will have far fewer restrictions than this past season. Now is the perfect time for dynasty managers to get in on him before his dynasty value takes off.

 

LuJames “Gino” Groover – ARI

 

Gino Groover was one of the more polished college hitters available in the 2023 draft. Groover started his collegiate career at UNC Charlotte before transferring to NC State as a sophomore. In his final year, Groover hit .332 and, more impressively, posted more walks than strikeouts. The Diamondbacks took Groover 49^th overall with excitement about his offensive potential. Groover has not generated much attention in the dynasty community up to this point. That is all about to change in 2025, as a breakout season is on the horizon.

 If not for a broken wrist, Groover might already be a household name amongst dynasty managers. Groover was off to a fast start to 2024 before running into an opposing base runner, ultimately causing him to miss nearly three months of action. Missing three months of game action in your first full season can throw a wrench in things. Groover was understandably rusty upon his return. He hit .184 with zero home runs in his first 13 games before settling in at the plate. From July 25 forward, Groover was unstoppable. He slashed an incredible .301/.386/.546 at the plate with a .245 ISO. He hit 10 home runs over that span which would put him on pace for 32 home runs over a full season.

Groover’s presence in the box is what stands out on film. Everything is simple. He has a small leg kick that he uses for timing but besides that his stance is quiet. His hands explode through the zone with excellent barrel control. He uses his lower half well and has no problem taking what pitchers give him. His line drive rates have been excellent and his 6’1” frame provides plenty of raw power. He projects as a 25-30 home run bat who is going to post strong batting averages.

Groover’s approach at the plate can be a bit aggressive at times. He likes to hunt pitches early in the count but has enough awareness to shorten up once he gets to two strikes. He is a difficult at-bat for any pitcher and rarely gives up easy outs. His contact rates are well above average and he has good pitch recognition, which allows him to walk a decent amount. Groover walked as often as he struck out during his hot stretch to end the season. This skill has carried over from college to the pros and provides a level of safety to his future projection.

Groover may not have the highest ceiling compared to other prospects. He is not going to steal 20 bases, and his power is not game-changing. These are the kinds of prospects that fly completely under the radar in dynasty circles. Groover projects as a very strong four-category contributor. His patience at the plate, combined with his plus power, should land him in a favorable lineup spot. He is going to post strong batting averages, thanks to plus contact skills and great barrel control. His glove is improving as well. The team has been willing to use him at second base and first base to improve his defensive versatility. If Groover played in a full season, he would be generating significant buzz in the dynasty community. The breakout is coming in 2025 and now is dynasty managers’ last chance to get in on him for cheap.

 

Photos courtesy of respective owners | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)

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