The 2025 MLB Draft is wide open. At this point in time, there are upwards of 10 names that will be in the conversation for the 1st overall pick this July. The reason is simply because this group lacks a standout, can’t miss prospect. There are a lot of really good players, but no slam dunk options. That will allow the Washington Nationals to keep their options open, and as we’ve seen in the past, utilize the 1st overall pick to “save” money, then use that later in the draft. Let’s dive into some names that came into this season outside the consensus top 50, but will be in the conversation for the 1st overall pick.
2025 MLB Draft Risers in Consideration for 1/1
Alex Lodise – MIF, Florida St.
Lodise is a new name that I have not written about yet this Spring. Coming into the year, he was a role player on a College World Series Florida State team, playing 62 games at SS, but only producing an average .281/.363/.470 with nine home runs. He was viewed as a solid defender with average tools across the board, then the 2025 season happened.
Lodise has broken out in a big way. He’s been one of the most productive players in the country, and will have a legitimate case for the Golden Spikes Award, college baseball’s MVP honor. Through 43 games, he’s slashing .430/.488/.805 with 16 home runs, 15 doubles, and just 38 strikeouts to 18 walks. The power he’s displayed for an up-the-middle prospect has vaulted him up draft boards. He’s now expected to hear his name called in the first round, something that wasn’t anticipated heading into the season.
As expected from his power production, Lodise’s data has been impressive. This season, he’s averaging a 95 mph exit velocity, with a 56.4% hard-hit rate and a 30.1% barrel rate. The combination of impressive power and the ability to elevate the ball is a skill set that should translate well to the next level. However, there are some concerns with his approach. Despite his productive season, he’s drawn only 18 walks, which is a bit troubling. That low number is largely due to a 32.6% chase rate. He does make above-average contact, which may help him get away with a hyper-aggressive approach for now, but he could be exposed against more advanced pitching.
Lodise is not without faults, but if the right organization believes in the offensive profile, he will have his name called early this July.
Gavin Kilen- MIF, Tennessee
Another MIF prospect who has had an impressive 2025 leading to a rise up draft boards. Coming into this season, Kilen was a fine player, but not one many anticipated to be in the 1st round conversation. As a Sophomore at Louisville, he showcased impressive bat-to-ball skills to the tune of a .330 average, and only 22 strikeouts in 54 games. Above average player, but limited due to the lack of power production. Well, this year the light has come on for Kilen in the power department.
One of my favorite “what ifs” when scouting hitters is this: What if a player with elite bat-to-ball skills adds muscle and strength, then learns how to hit for power? That would be a pretty special player, right? Well that is what Kilen has done. After only nine career home runs in 100 games, he has hit 11 in 36 games this season after transferring to Tennessee. The signs were always there, as he hit 23 doubles last season, which is a good indicator of future power production, but it never came together. It has now, and Kilen is a completely different prospect because of it.
The most impressive part of Kilen’s season has been his ability to maintain an elite contact rate, while adding so much power. That is the most valuable skill a hitter can have. This season, he has made contact with 85.2% of pitches he has swung at. Combine that with a 90.5 mph average exit velocity, and you can see where the production came from. I would not consider the exit velocity numbers as above average, but the fact that 52.8% of the balls he has hit are above 95 mph, shows there is more in the tank than the average EV shows. Elite contact skills with above average power is always a skillset I will hang my hat on when evaluating prospects.
Liam Doyle- LHP, Tennessee
There must be something about players transferring to Tennessee and immediately becoming different players. It showcases the elite player development that has been a staple of the Tennessee program in their rise to the 2024 National Championship. Doyle flashed elite stuff during his Sophomore season at Ole Miss, but ended the season with a 5.73 ERA. So far in his first season in Knoxville, he is pitching to a 2.39 ERA with 115 strikeouts in 67.2 IP. His 15.3 K/9 would match Paul Skenes as the best mark in recent memory. It has been an impressive season so far for Doyle, and it should pay off come draft time.
What has made Doyle’s season even more impressive, has been that it has been on the back of one pitch. He has used his 4-seam fastball 66.1% of the time. Even as hitters know the FB is coming, they have struggled to make consistent contact with it. The pitch has generated an elite 41.1% whiff rate, and batters are only hitting a mere .127 against the pitch. Doyle’s FB is a legit 80-grade offering, and has an argument as the best pitch in the whole draft class.
In 2024 Doyle’s FB was great, with a 33.2% whiff rate, but it has improved drastically this Spring. Last season, he averaged 92.5 mph on his FB with a -4.53 VAA. This year, the pitch has averaged 95.6 mph, topping out at 99.5, with a -4.20 VAA. These improvements have allowed the pitch to play up, and become a legit weapon that he can use two out of every three pitches and still dominate hitters.
Doyle’s offspeed stuff also flashes above average at times. The slider has generated a 30.3% whiff rate, while the splitter has generated a 41.9% whiff rate. The splitter is a new offering he added this offseason, and it has been extremely effective, even if he only uses it about 10% of the time. At the next level, the offspeed stuff will have to advance, but the foundation is there for a quick rise through the minors. An elite FB is a good starting point for a pitcher to have success.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads @kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)
