Throwing around the word ‘bust’ in the prospect world is like dropping a four-letter expletive in front of your grandma; it never ends well. So, while the focus of this piece is busts, it’s only in the sense of not meeting expectations in the short term, not a death sentence for their careers. There are so many layers to this as well.
For example, a player like Jackson Chourio could have been labeled a bust at various points in his career, particularly as he struggled early on at each level before ultimately righting the ship and being a star. I’m confident that nobody considers Chourio a bust any longer, but you can see how volatile this process can be. An added layer of difficulty you may not expect is that most of the player pool is between 18 and 22 years old, leaving ample room for further physical and skill development. While it’s a difficult task, here is my best shot at identifying three prospects who will bust in 2026.
Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, COL
Is it too early in the process to label Holliday as a bust? Yes. Are the characteristics there to compound his struggles and lead to disappointment? Also, yes. For starters, while they share DNA and a last name, this is not the same profile as his brother, Orioles second baseman Jackson. Ethan has a similar body type to their dad, Matt, standing 6’2″ and over 200 lbs, with a solid and well-developed physical frame, built for strength and power. His power potential is incredible and is easily his carrying tool as a prospect.
As a high schooler in Oklahoma, Holliday was reaching max EVs well over 110mph and had a 90th percentile EV of around 105.5mph, hence why he was given a 70-grade rating on his power. Holliday moves just fine and is relatively athletic despite his bigger frame, but is unlikely to contribute on the basepaths now, or in the future as he adds muscle. His physical stature and lack of twitchy movements are also why Holliday is almost certainly moving to third base in the long run.
Following his selection as the fourth overall pick last summer, the Rockies aggressively assigned the 18-year-old to Class A, where he played in 18 games. It was a very small sample, but his performance aligned with much of what the scouting reports said. Holliday hit just .239 with two homers and four doubles, but struggled immensely with his contact skills. He struck out 33 times in just 71 at-bats (39.3%), which included a 16.7% swinging-strike rate and an overall contact rate of just under 60%.
When he did make contact, 44.7% of it was on the ground, with exactly 51.4% of his contact going to the opposite field. None of these things is encouraging, even in a small sample. But that’s been the underlying concern with Holliday. His profile has the makings of a three-true outcome, meaning he’s going to strike out, walk, and hit bombs, with not much in between.
While the profile has its flaws and the development curve is more of a hairpin turn, ultimately, one of the biggest problems Ethan Holliday has is his name. The Holliday name and the associated pedigree bear a lot of weight. Let alone the pressures of being a first-round pick and the ‘face of the franchise’, which Rockies fans are already projecting on him. There’s such an uphill battle to overcome all of these things that it seems inevitable that Holliday is a bust in 2026.
Ethan Holliday had his first three-hit game of his professional career tonight while finishing a triple shy of the cycle 🔥 pic.twitter.com/lRAZox542W
— Milb Central (@milb_central) September 7, 2025
Braylon Payne, OF, MIL
When the Brewers selected Braylon Payne with the 17th overall pick in 2024, they were taking a huge risk on a toolsy prep outfielder who still hadn’t celebrated his 18th birthday. In his very brief debut following the draft, Payne got off to a fast start, literally. He used his 70-grade speed to wreak havoc early and often, swiping four bases in as many games while securing a .538 BABIP. The tools were quite loud, headlined by the speed, but also with plus exit velocities and a strong approach at the plate. His first full season wasn’t such a pleasant experience, though.
Payne returned to Class A Carolina and played 77 games, slashing .240/.354/.382 with eight homers, nine doubles, and 31 steals as an 18-year-old. On the surface, it looks like a standard season from a teenager in his pro debut, mixed with some good and bad along the way. While the athleticism and upside still flashed, a lower floor presented itself in the form of excessive swing-and-miss. In 288 at-bats last season, he struck out 103 times for a rate of 30.1%. The glimpses of bat-to-ball that he showed following the draft went away as a 66% overall contact rate emerged, while expanding the zone more often.
Payne was still running frequently and reached base at a nice clip; he just needed to tighten things up a bit. His swing is wonky and lacks natural lift, reflected in a high ground-ball rate and a lack of power given the quality of contact.
Like most highly-skilled teenagers, Payne has a very high ceiling but a rock-bottom floor. Barring a retooling at the plate, 2026 will be a big struggle for him as he climbs levels. He’ll still be one of the younger players in High-A, but his rawness is likely to be exposed by more advanced pitching.
Braylon Payne ropes a triple down the right field line in a lefty/lefty matchup.
Nice to see as after a hot start, he’s had some struggles of late. pic.twitter.com/ifLEtHGcGG
— Spencer Michaelis (@smichaelis234) June 17, 2025
Lazaro Montes, OF, SEA
If you haven’t picked up on the theme yet, this article is clearly focused on high-upside, low-floor players, and Montes fits the bill perfectly. The 20-year-old has been on the scene for nearly three seasons now after a massive season in the DSL as a 17-year-old in 2022. In the years that followed, Montes slowly climbed level by level, ultimately reaching Double-A to close out 2025. Given how aggressive the Mariners have been with other top prospects, including Colt Emerson recently, the team isn’t shy about moving guys quickly when it’s confident in their skills.
That hasn’t been the case for Montes, a player long considered one of their top prospects and a consensus Top-100 prospect in nearly every publication. In fact, they’ve moved him more methodically than any player in their system. I’m sure part of that is due to his age at debut, but there’s also more development to be had that people realize.
Lost in the massive raw power, elite exit velocities, and the 6’5″ frame is a profile littered with red flags. First and foremost, Montes is not a great athlete. He does not run well, offering no range or defensive ability in the field and clogging up the base paths. Even at age 20, he’s a station-to-station guy with only minimal extra-base potential because of the lack of mobility. Unfortunately, unless he can find a way to make first base work, he’s a perma-DH. The nice thing is that when he’s going well, his bat can play up to that level. The downside is that advanced pitching is starting to crack his armor.
Strikeouts started playing a factor from day one, as Montes was striking out over 30% of the time in the DSL and had a contact rate below 40%. That should have been a massive red flag, as the DSL is home to really bad pitching and elevated strikeout rates at that level often worsen down the road. But the production was there, and Montes was given a pass because of his age. He was able to stabilize his swing-and-miss in the Complex and Class A in 2023, settling around 25%. But as he graduated to High-A at the end of 2024, his contact woes resurfaced.
Last season, Montes managed a paltry 63.8% overall contact rate, including a swinging-strike rate of over 17%, which raised his strikeout rate to 29%. Still, those numbers are being overshadowed as he continues to produce. After all, Montes hit 32 homers with a .504 SLG across two levels as a 20-year-old in 2025. But that issue isn’t just going to go away.
If the Mariners stay true to form, Montes will open the 2026 season with a repeat of Double-A, where he played 64 games to close out 2025. His contact rate was barely 60%, with a strikeout rate of over 30% at the level. Montes will stay there for two months or so, and then jump to Triple-A, where spin and pitchability really take shape. He won’t be a complete bust at the highest level of the minors, but when those strikeouts continue trending in the wrong direction, people are going to start talking about how sustainable his success can be in the majors. The ceiling is quite high for Montes, and the power can play anywhere, but is he still able to be a 30+ homer bat when he’s making contact less than 60% of the time?
Lazaro Montes hit his THIRTIETH and THIRTY-FIRST home runs last night 🚀 pic.twitter.com/BvB3Bp9KSt
— Milb Central (@milb_central) August 23, 2025
