As typical per April, there are going to be starters that perform much better than expected and we all wonder if we should be doing something about it. Kendall Graveman is a prime example after going 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks last night following a solid outing to start the year as well. This is what's going on: Graveman was bumped his velocity to the mid 90s and is throwing his lively Two-Seamer a ton. Like 90.5% of the time thus far. Holy Wade Boggs' mustache that's not a good recipe for success unless you're Zach Britton and we all know his deals with the man below. But Nick, if it's working, why can't he keep it up? Alright y'all, I know it's just two starts but I'm going to throw data your way that I think is pretty significant. 3.89 FIP, .194 BABIP, 97.8% LOB Rate. So far so bad. But yeah, two starts that's expected! What's not expected is a 3.0% soft contact rate and 42.4% hard contact rate. Normally with super good two-seam Fastballs, we get great hard contact mitigation and a bunch of soft contact - the ball is moving so much that it's tough to get a barrel on it. Think Garrett Richards and Aaron Sanchez. Seeing Graveman have essentially zero soft contact and over 40% hard contact tells me that he's been getting suuuuper lucky in these first few starts. Now, his increased K rate is definitely interesting (25.0% thus far opposed to 14.8% career) and I would still speculatively add him, but without solid secondary options and so much luck his way it's hard to believe this is breakout city.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
