The Houston Astros are no strangers to developing homegrown pitching talent. Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrigheti have all played significant roles for the team in 2024 after coming up through the ‘Stros minor league system. However, Houston’s entering a period of transition. The old guard that has led them to postseason success on the mound may be on their way out of town, leaving holes in the pitching staff for the front office to fill. The Astros may have another stud on their hands in AJ Blubaugh. Since being drafted in the 7th round in 2022, Blubaugh has flown through the minor leagues, breaking out this season with the AAA Space Cowboys. He now finds himself on the verge of the big league roster going into 2025.
Who is AJ Blubaugh?
2024 Stats: (AA/AAA): 128.2 IP |3.71 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 24.5 K% | 9.4 BB%
The 24-year-old right-hander hails from a school with just two Major League alums. The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee has had 28 players drafted (Blubaugh was the 26th) and can boast an active MLB player as one of their graduates. Daulton Varsho hit .335 with 24 home runs in 162 games with the Panthers in three seasons, before reaching the Majors in 2020.
That year, Blubaugh arrived in Milwaukee, pitching in three games before the season was cut short because of the COVID-19 outbreak. He returned to campus in 2021 as an experienced freshman, and made an instant impact. Blubaugh was named the Horizon League Reliever of the Year and was given All-Conference First-Team honors. He had a 1.96 ERA in the regular season, striking out 37 batters in 27.1 innings. Blubaugh was just as good in 2022, picking up his second consecutive Reliever of the Year award, racking up six saves and limiting opponents to a .149 BAA. The Panthers also started him seven times. Blubaugh’s best collegiate start came against Penn State on the road. He went seven innings, shutting out the Nittany Lions en route to a 12-0 win.
That summer, Blubaugh took his talents to the Orleans Firebirds of the Cape Cod Baseball League. Facing off against the best competition in college baseball, he limited opponents to two hits in eight games, not allowing a run in 9.1 innings. The Astros took note and drafted Blubaugh in the 7th round of the 2022 Draft. He appeared in six games, starting three to finish out the season, posting a 4.34 ERA in 18.2 innings.
In his first full season in professional baseball, Blubaugh was okay, but not amazing at High-A. He appeared in 22 games, starting nine of the them, and posted a 4.94 ERA. That stint represented his lowest K/9 (9.7) and highest HR/9 rate (1.05) at any level so far in his minor league career. He finished his time in High-A strongly though, posting a 3.54 FIP in his last four games with a 1.28 WHIP. Blubaugh was promoted to AA on August 26th, going four innings, striking out five in his debut.
He finished the season on fire in AA. In four games with the Corpus Christi Hooks in 2022, Blubaugh had a 1.26 ERA, holding opponents to a .093 AVG, striking out 37.3% of the batters he faced. He returned to AA to start 2024, but made just one start with the Hooks before joining the Sugar Land Space Cowboys for the remainder of the season.
Blubaugh was stellar for his new team. He was named Co-Pitcher of the Year by the team after a campaign in which they won the Pacific Coast League Championship. Blubaugh played a key role in the clinching series, striking out six in a game one win. He finished the season with a 12-4 record, striking out 133 batters in 124 innings. His 3.83 ERA was fifth among qualified pitchers in AAA. Blubaugh enters 2025 poised to make his MLB debut in the coming months.
AJ Blubaugh’s Arsenal
Fastball (46.1%)
Blubaugh operates with a four-seam fastball with good life and velocity to it. Blubaugh can hit as high as 97 on the radar gun, and he averaged 92.5 miles an hour on the pitch in 2024. His heater won’t be his out pitch at the next level, but he can locate it and it sets up his secondary offerings well. He sits primarily in the top of the zone with the pitch, but is effective at getting whiffs on his glove side. If the pitch misses towards his arm-side, hitters have been able to do damage against it. Blubaugh’s fastball may not be his best offering, but it serves it’s purpose, which is to effectively set up his array of offspeed pitches.
Sweeper (16.4%)
Blubaugh’s sweeper is an effective weapon because of how well he can mirror his velocity between his pitches. The sweeper is effectively the same speed as his changeup, and tunnels with the pitch well, making the hitter guess which way the ball is going to go before they’re comfortable swinging. Like his fastball, the velocity is not among the upper echelon of sweepers (sits 80-82), but the movement and deception he’s able to create make it a valuable weapon. At 2500 rpm, the pitch has similar numbers and shape to Tanner Houck’s offering. Blubaugh primarily sits down and away to right-handed hitters, but can locate the pitch for a strike if he needs to.
Changeup (15.1%)
In my opinion, the changeup is Blubaugh’s best offering. When paired with his fastball and his sweeper, the offspeed is straight up filthy. As stated earlier, the changeup is nearly identical velocity-wise, sitting in the low 80s. The two pitches are nearly identical in terms of vertical movement as well, sitting roughly on the same plane (~-36 in of vertical drop). The changeup tumbles out of the fastball tunnel, dropping the hitter’s eye level. As a result of this, he gets a ton of whiffs below the knees, making this offering his primary “out” pitch. When he gets to the Majors, this pitch will be critical against big-league hitters.
Cutter (11.8%)
Blubaugh’s cutter serves as a “bridge” pitch in his arsenal. Velocity wise, it sits directly in between his fastball and his sweeper/changeup at around 84-85 miles an hour. The movement profile is a mix between a cutter with heavy glove-side movement and a gyro-slider. He pairs it primarily on his glove side with his sweeper, which throws off hitters with the movement differentiation. The pitch has resulted in a strike 26% of the time this season, with a whiff rate of 10%, which are both solid numbers to build off of. However, he only struck out three hitters on the cutter last season, indicating that his Fastball/Change/Sweeper combination is his most trusted method for getting outs.
Curveball (10.5%)
The last of Blubaugh’s (very balanced) arsenal is another breaking ball that could serve him well in the future. The curveball plays vertically more than it does horizontally (almost 60 inches of vertical drop per Savant). He utilizes the pitch in the zone more than expected, working mostly to his arm side. This pitch is still a work in progress, as it generated a whiff rate of just 6% and missed the plate 42% of the time. With some more tweaking, this offering could serve as a good “weak-contact” generator due to the velocity differences between his other pitches and it’s movement below the zone.
AJ Blubaugh’s Fantasy Outlook
Blubaugh has the talent and the track record to start 2025 on the Major League roster. His body of work and his upside warrants giving him an audition in the rotation, but there are only five spots in the rotation and he has plenty of competition.
Houston has some tough decisions to make this offseason. Justin Verlander’s contract is up, and he isn’t the same pitcher he was when he led the Astros to the World Series in 2019. In 17 starts this season, Verlander had a 5.48 ERA and a 0.7 WAR, his lowest total over a full-season. His strikeout and walk rates have both significantly regressed over the past few seasons, and his average fastball velocity of 93.7 was the lowest of his career. Yusei Kikuchi is also set to hit free agency in the coming months. The 33-year-old southpaw had the best season of his career with the ‘Stros. His 3.5 WAR ranks 16th among qualified MLB starters. Kikuchi’s production this season may make his price tag too high for Houston to pay.
The Astros should have some familiar faces returning to the rotation. Framber Valdez has established himself as a front-of-the-line starter in Houston. His 3.09 xFIP was the fifth lowest in the Majors this season, better than other aces like Zack Wheeler (3.30) and Logan Webb (3.28). Valdez is arbitration eligible this offseason, but will have to wait until 2026 to hit free agency and get his payday. Hunter Brown will be back in Houston in 2025 as well. The 26-year-old bounced back from a dreadful April performance (11.84 ERA in 19 innings) to put up all-star numbers as the season went on. In 16 starts between June 1st and August 31st, Brown had an ERA of 2.12 and struck out 102 batters in 97.2 innings. Spencer Arrigheti will be angling for a spot in the rotation after his debut season. His 4.53 doesn’t jump off the page, and his BB/9 over 4 won’t do him any favors, but he should still get an opportunity to start games next season.
Houston also has an entire rotation’s worth of pitchers on the shelf with injuries right now. Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier are all recovering from Tommy John surgery, but should feature at some point in 2025. Lance McCullers Jr. hasn’t pitched since the 2022 World Series, and may have to fight to take his spot in the rotation back. J.P. France was shelved with a shoulder issue in June, and should make his return at some point in 2025.
Blubaugh has operated primarily as a starter since being drafted by Houston, so moving him to the bullpen seems to be off the table. However, with all the names in contention for starts in the Astros’ organization, relieving may be his most reliable path to the Major Leagues. However, teams can never have too much depth in their rotations, especially with Houston’s injury issues. A strong spring could put Blubaugh in line to take on one of the spots in the back-end of the Astros’ rotation.