Analyzing Kansas City Royals Hitters For 2020 – 60-Game Season Update

The Royals’ 2019 season may best be summed up as “at least we weren’t the Rangers, Orioles, Marlins or Tigers!” As a unit, their hitters didn’t do much of anything when it came to driving the ball or getting on base. The only counting stat in which they posted a strong final line was steals, where the team swiped 117 bags and ranked second overall behind only the Rangers—another terrible offense.

But it’s not as if you could pluck any Royal off the wire and wrangle a few steals at a given point in the season. Together, Adalberto Mondesi (43) and Whit Merrifield (20) accounted for 53% of the team’s stolen bags. They didn’t rank higher than 19th in any major stat. Beyond Merrifield and Mondesi are a few solid or above-average regulars, but not much else.

(Last Updated: July 8, 2020)

60-Game Season Update

 

Baseball is back! To celebrate, we are updating our team-by-team Hitter Profiles by adding a summary of the players who saw their stocks go up or down based on the time off, new rules, and other major changes we’ll see in 2020 and updated projected lineups. 

 

Trending Up

 

Despite being in a rebuilding phase, there isn’t much flux on the Royals roster, even in a shortened season with expanded rosters. The expanded rosters brought few surprises (Bobby Witt Jr. made the cut, but is highly unlikely to see the filed) and little in the way of Major League-ready talent, leaving a relatively weak offense to fend for itself.

I suppose in very deep AL-only leagues, Cam Gallagher is on the radar as a reserve catcher. His primary competition for the backup role behind Salvador Perez was Meibrys Viloria, who was optioned to AAA in late spring. Viloria is also on the IL and may not be ready for the start of the year, and even if he does recover quickly (which we all hope he does), it’s safe to say that Gallagher has the backup catcher role locked down for now. With Perez also on the IL to start summer camp, Gallagher might even be the starter on Opening Day. That said, he’s very limited offensively with his primary skill being average plate discipline with a slightly below-average strikeout rate.

Another AL-only name to consider late is Ryan McBroom, who gets a second chance to fight for more playing time at first base with lefty Ryan O’Hearn. A straight platoon makes the most sense, though O’Hearn hit just .195 for the Royals last season (albeit with a 10.6% walk rate and 14 home runs in 105 games)—a performance made even more disappointing when you consider he slashed .262/.353/.597 with 14 home runs in his 44-game 2018 debut. O’Hearn is currently on the IL due to a positive COVID diagnosis and there’s a chance he won’t be ready by opening day. If O’Hearn can’t make adjustments in his third season or misses significant time, McBroom could easily win the lion’s share of the starts and be somewhat relevant as a depth bat in AL-only formats.

Nicky Lopez, who in a full season could be a double-digit home run and steals guy, didn’t really have his situation change much with the crazy offseason as he’s still set to be the regular second baseman. The only reason I’m including him here is that the Royals have included virtually no one else who would be a major threat to Lopez’s playing time, so you have to think he has a long leash in 2020. It also doesn’t hurt that there aren’t a ton of strong left-handed pitchers in the AL or NL Central, so he may be able to regain some confidence after a rough 2019.

 

Trending Down:

 

We all are hoping for a speedy and safe recovery for O’Hearn, Perez, and Viloria. Other than that, the primary fantasy contributors for the Royals, such as Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, and Hunter Dozier are in more or less the same position they had back in the spring.

 

Projected Lineup

 

 

Original March Edition

Roster Changes

 

• ADDITIONS: N/A.
• SUBTRACTIONS: Alex Gordon (LF) is the only potential loss for Kansas City right now. However, the organization loves him, and he could easily have a contract and role on the team if he wants one. The skills have declined as they would for anyone playing through age 35, but there’s still use for a player of his stature on a young, rebuilding squad. And maybe yours, too, if you need a good matchup flier from waivers. 

 

Hitter Previews

 

Catchers

 

Salvador Perez (C | Batting 6th)

2018: 52 R, 27 HR, 80 RBI, 1 SB, .235/.274/.439

2020 ADP: 266.3 (C #8)

 

Salvador Perez missed all of 2019 after suffering an injury in spring training that required Tommy John surgery. He should be healthy and begin the season with the club, and immediately start over any option left on the roster from last year.

If he’s back to his usual self, he’ll be a rock-steady performer behind the plate. From 2014 to 2018, he was pretty much a lock for 50+ runs, 20+ homers, and 70+ RBI without being a drag on other categories outside steals or OBP, depending on your settings.

But we can’t just assume full health. Sure, Tommy John surgery isn’t as serious for position players as it is for pitchers, but it’s still an intense procedure that can impact performance. Maybe we can consider Didi Gregorius as a reference, since he had TJ at the end of 2018 and came back last June. Didi slashed .238/.276/.441 this season. The slugging was in line with his Yankee career (.447), but his batting average was down 35 points and his OBP was down more than 40 points. If the average drags down the OBP as he gets back into game shape, Perez will have some daunting stretches.

 

Strengths: HR, RBI

Weaknesses: OBP, SLG

 

Best-Case Scenario

 

Perez will play most of 2020 in his age-30 season. He’s a rock behind the plate who can register 130 games or more and buoy you at the catcher position with power and steady counting stats, even on a bad team.

 

Worst-Case Scenario

 

The TJ zaps his stroke at the plate and he becomes the first guy you cut at a time where there are surprisingly more catcher options available than there have been previously. He scuttles to a below-average line as the rest of the league continues to put up record-setting offensive marks.

 

2020 Projection: 66 R, 27 HR, 81 RBI, 2 SB, .252/.291/.465

 

Infielders

 

Maikel Franco (3B | Batting 8th)

2019: 48 R, 17 HR, 56 RBI, 0 SB, .234/.297/.409 | 3B #54

2020 ADP: Undrafted (Unranked)

 

Maikel Franco is a tough nut to crack. He’s always demonstrated an ability to hit the ball hard but he’s shown an inability to make contact or lift the ball when he did. The Phillies tried a bunch of ways to help him. They moved him around the order, they tried to tweak how he was using his spine to better get to the ball, they tried to add loft to his flat-planed swing, and they probably tried other tweaks, too. Nothing ever clicked over a prolonged period of time.

Things reached a nadir for Franco in 2019 when he was demoted to the minors in August. He eventually returned but ultimately amassed his most underwhelming major league campaign. He’s going from one of the friendliest ballparks for right-handed hitters in Citizens Bank Park to one of the least friendly in Kauffman Stadium. The only possible plus to consider through draft season is that the Phillies have been poor at player development in recent years, but what we see might be what we get from Franco at this point. He went undrafted in all 6 PL mocks.

 

Strengths: SLG

Weaknesses: SB

 

Best-Case Scenario

 

The change of setting helps something click for Franco. He delivers on the promise purported when he was a top prospect, he becomes a top-20 3rd baseman, and you have a chance to pluck him up for nothing.

 

Worst-Case Scenario

 

2020 shows us Franco is what 2019 made us think he was.

 

2020 Projection: 55 R, 19 HR, 60 RBI, 1 SB, .267/.330/.472

 

Nicky Lopez (2B | Batting 7th)

2019: 44 R, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 1 SB, .240/.276/.325| 2B #86

2020 ADP: Undrafted (Unranked)

 

Lopez debuted last year with the profile of a light-hitting, contact-oriented guy who had great strikeout-to-walk ratios and could steal close to double digit bags. He worked into 103 games but only got 1 steal on 2 attempts. His K-rate was only 12.7% but his walk rate was just a third of that. Right now he’s pegged as the Royals starting 2nd baseman but hasn’t shown us a carrying trait to buy into. He’s currently going undrafted and probably isn’t worth an investment beyond an eye on the waiver wire if he happens to flash some promise.

 

Strengths: SB, AVG

Weaknesses: HR, SLG

 

Best-Case Scenario

 

Lopez outperforms what he did in the minors, registering a batting average well above average and stolen base totals that sell his speed.

 

Worst-Case Scenario

 

He can’t adjust to major league pitching and the Royals send him to the bench in favor of Whit Merrifield moving back to the keystone from the outfield. You don’t think about him.

 

2020 Projection: 58 R, 7 HR, 50 RBI, 9 SB, .272/.327/.377

 

Adalberto Mondesi (SS | Batting 2nd)

2019: 52 R, 9 HR, 62 RBI, 43 SB, .263/.291/.424 | SS #11

2020 ADP: 41.3 (SS #10)

 

The love affair with Mondesi persists for now, but it might be time to consider a change of heart. He suffered a severe shoulder injury in September that ended his season and requires five to six months without baseball activity. The Royals reportedly expect to have him back for Opening Day but we haven’t had a chance to see if there are any residual effects from his injury.

It’s not just the shoulder injury that’s concerning. Mondesi showed a fascinating power-speed combo when he broke through with 14 homers and 32 steals in 75 games in 2018. He did it while posting a walk rate below 4% and a K rate above 26%, though, and followed it up this season by walking half a tick more but striking out an additional 3%. He was shifted a bunch more in 2019. His ISO dropped 60 points—from well above average to well below in spite of the rabbit ball. He hit 30% more grounders in 2019 than 2018. And now he’s got an injury that could impact his bat path through the zone. Projections are buying into his ceiling, but the variance possible still make his current price feel high. There’s a host of bona fide talent being picked around him and a handful of intriguing lottery tickets to boot.

 

Strengths: SB

Weaknesses: OBP, SLG

 

Best-Case Scenario

 

Mondesi plays as though the shoulder injury never happened, he corrects his issues with grounders and shifting, and he more closely resembles the outstanding player we saw in his partial 2018 season. The price paid in the winter is worth it.

 

Worst-Case Scenario

 

The shift continues to eat him up, and he continues to put the ball on the ground too much. He becomes nearly one-dimensional with his speed and looks a lot more like Mallex Smith than you’d like from a 4th-rounder.

 

2020 Projection: 82 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 48 SB, .253/.293/.430

 

Ryan O’Hearn (1B | Batting 5th)

2019: 32 R, 14 HR, 38 RBI, 0 SB, .195/.281/.369 | 1B #90

2020 ADP: Undrafted (Unranked)

 

At least it probably can’t get worse for Ryan O’Hearn than 2019?

 

Strengths: None

Weaknesses: Pretty much everything 

 

Best-Case Scenario

 

O’Hearn rebounds and looks anything like the 2018 version that slashed .262/.353/.597 in 44 games. You snag him off the wire as a fun surprise.

 

Worst-Case Scenario

 

He repeats his 2019.

 

2020 Projection: 49 R, 17 HR, 50 RBI, 1 SB, .235/.314/.434

 

Outfielders

 

Jorge Soler (DH/OF | Batting 3rd)

2019: 95 R, 48 HR, 117 RBI, 3 SB, .265/.354/.569 | OF #16

2020 ADP: 84.7 (OF #23)

 

2019 was the Jorge Soler season we’ve all been waiting for. It may have come a year or two later than expected, but he finally put it all together and ended up leading the American League in dingers. The slugging appears to be legitimate, rabbit ball or not. He hit the ball in the air harder than all but nine players last season. With speedy boys like Merrifield and Mondesi setting the table, Soler will continue to have a chance to rack up RBI with his extra-base hits. The ADP suggests people are looking elsewhere for outfielders for a while, making him a strong add as a second outfielder. Everyone’s hitting bombs for now, but Soler’s power could more easily survive another potential “manufacturing inconsistency” with the baseball than other players.

 

Strengths: HR, RBI, SLG, R

Weaknesses: SB

 

Best-Case Scenario

 

The power burst sticks and Soler Power lights up your smile all season.

 

Worst-Case Scenario

 

The ISO peaked in 2019 and you buy in on a career year only to be left a little disappointed.

 

2020 Projection: 87 R, 34 HR, 95 RBI, 3 SB, .257/.349/.503

 

Whit Merrifield (2B/OF | Batting 1st)

2019: 105 R, 16 HR, 74 RBI, 20 SB, .302/.348/.463| 2B #4

2020 ADP: 54.8 (OF #17)

 

Merrifield is another Royals late bloomer who has a track record that includes speed and power over the last three years. The speed is the big lure here: He’s stolen 34, 45 and 20 bags over that stretch. About 20 guys steal that many bags per season, and it’s been fewer than that in two of the last three years.

The big drop from 2018 to 2019 may be concerning, though. Merrifield will play 2020 at age 31, and speed is a skill that ages poorly. He lost two-tenths of a second off his sprint speed last season, dropping him from the 93rd percentile to the 85th. That’s still pretty awesome, but for an aging player who plays nearly every game, it’s something to be mindful of.

Merrifield also qualifies in the outfield and possibly even first base, depending on your league settings. Current ADPs see him going within a few picks of Ketel Marte, José Altuve and Jonathan Villar. If you’re looking for steals at that spot, three of these four offer varying amounts. Second base also runs deep, even for 15-teamers, so missing out will likely still leave you a few options in the coming rounds.

 

Strengths: H, R, SB, AVG

Weaknesses: SO

 

Best-Case Scenario

 

Merrifield’s tiny drops in sprint speed mean nothing; he continues playing nearly every game and helps you move toward the top of the league in steals while being a legitimate contributor in the other big counting categories.

 

Worst-Case Scenario

 

The sprint speed continues to dip and so do the steals, leaving you with a nice player, but one who’s similar to others who probably went rounds after him.

 

2020 Projection: 91 R, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 23 SB, .282/.337/.427

 

Hunter Dozier (OF/3B/1B | Batting 4th)

2019: 75 R, 26 HR, 84 RBI, 2 SB, .279/.348/.522 | 3B #21

2020 ADP: 160.7 (OF #45)

 

Hunter Dozier blasted onto the scene in April and May, hitting .313 with 26 extra-base hits. June was a disaster with a sub-Mendoza line average. But according to counting stats, the rest of the season provided a useful line, if less exhilarating than his opening months as he returned from injury. He came out of obscurity and rode all sorts of ebbs and flows through the year, leaving us to ask what to expect for 2020.

At 94.2 mph, he hits the ball hard in the air—harder than nearly 75% of the league—and that always plays. He’s going to be in the heart of any offensive success for Kansas City, and there’s always value in players who have those roles even when they come on a bad team. He’ll likely make a fine corner infielder or bench bat who offers positional versatility. He doesn’t have OF eligibility yet, but there are reports that he’ll move to right field and White Merrifield will move to center with the club having signed Maikel Franco to play 3rd base.

Strengths: AVG, HR, SLG, OPS

Weaknesses: SO

 

Best-Case Scenario

 

Dozier resembles more of what he was at the start of 2019 than the end and becomes a powerhouse at the hot corner. His torrid pace probably pushes your team into contention or beyond as one of the big surprises in 2020.

 

Worst-Case Scenario

 

His ability to drive the ball dissipates and so does almost all of his value, leaving you with a solid batting average but not much else.

 

2020 Projection: 75 R, 22 HR, 82 RBI, 4 SB, .252/.321/.445

 

Brett Phillips (OF | Batting 9th)

2019: 7 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 3 SB, .138/.247/.262 | OF #234

2020 ADP: Undrafted (Unranked)

 

Brett Phillips is in his third organization in four years and has shown varying degrees of progress. He played in only 30 games last season for the Royals. If he can corral his Ks, he might be a sneaky value play on the tail-end of a deep roster. It seems as though the Royals are collecting former first-rounders and and trying to catch another late bloomer out of the bunch.

 

Strengths: SB

Weaknesses: Pretty much everything else

 

Best-Case Scenario

 

Something clicks and Phillips is able to get on base at a consistent clip. His ability to drive the ball is solid, and he’s an under-the-radar speed play.

 

Worst-Case Scenario

 

His 2019 performance is his true talent at the major league level.

 

2020 Projection: 48 R, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 11 SB, .211/.299/.365

 

Playing Time Battles

 

Alex Gordon is technically a free agent, but the org loves him. If he wants a contract, he’ll probably get one. Beyond that, the addition of Maikel Franco and commitment to Nicky Lopez seems to solidify a lot. Merrifield and Dozier will look to stick in the outfield and Jorge Soler is tabbed to primarily DH. Brett Phillips or Bubba Starling turning into even a replacement level player would be big for the Royals and offer some depth, but the fantasy impact is likely to be minimal.

Projected Lineup