What a drought for Justin Bour am I right? Man, it's been rough. I mean, the guy went four whole games without hitting a home run before his 2-5, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI night. I'm kidding, Bour has been amazing this year and looks to be well on his way to a career year. In his 90 games last season and in his year in 2015, Bour flashed some impressive skills, especially in his power. He kind of established himself as a 20-25 home run guy who bats in the .260s. A very useful player, but not a guy who's going to win you your league. Still though, I and many others thought he was very draftable and a useful component to any team. And then the beginning of the year happened and he was bad. For the first month or so of the season, Bour was hitting .222 with four home runs, and fantasy baseball players being as reactive as they are, dumped him. Well I hope you picked him up in those leagues (like I did) because he's back and he's destroying the ball. Over the past month, Bour has hit .344 with 11 home runs and 21 RBIs, he's been unstoppable, and it looks legit. But what does that ultimately look like for Justin Bour? Is he the Justin Bour of April or May? The answer lies somewhere in between. Is Bour a .300+ hitter? No, especially considering his strikeout rate has gotten worse (though it's not terrible). Plus, over the month of May, Bour had a .367 BABIP, that's not who he is. But, could Bour hit .270 the rest of the way with another 15-20 home runs? Absolutely. Right now he's on pace for just over 45 home runs, that's not going to happen because that 33.3% HR/FB rate is going to decline (though considering his absurdly high hard hit rate, I would bet it ends up around 20%), but I don't see any reason Bour can't end the year with 30-35 or so home runs batting in the .270s. And if he did that? That gives him a year pretty close to what Evan Longoria did last year, and considering Bour's ADP was around round 23-24 (or he was free if you got him from the waiver wire), that's some fantastic value. Bour was pacing towards a 30 home run, 100 RBI season last year before he sprained his ankle, so why can't he do that this year? Or better?
Let's take a look at some of the other performances from Wednesday's games:
Would you give up Neris for Schwarber?
I probably would, I think Schwarber will bounce back, and while Neris has been pitching well, the Phillies just aren’t presenting him with many save opportunities.
Time to pull the string on Villar? I have both Forsythe and Travis waiting on the sidelines.
Here’s the thing: I think anyone who was expecting last year to repeat itself for Villar wasn’t paying attention. That .373 BABIP signaled that the .285 average was going to come down. Now, yes, he’s fast so he typically would maintain a high BABIP, but not that high.
I think Villar has been a bit unlucky, though the contact stats aren’t great. The groundballs are up, the line drives are down, but I think he’ll get better as his BABIP improves.
I’m thinking Villar is a .240-.250 hitter the rest of the way and I think he ends the year with 15 home runs and around 35 steals. Is that someone you cut? I wouldn’t. I just think the expectations need to be adjusted. But I wouldn’t be opposed to benching him for Travis while Travis is hot.
I’m over-flowing with 1B power hitters, Bour, Smoak and Tommy Joseph. I’m thinking i should make a trade and upgrade in other areas, but which one do i trade? And who could i expect to get back, say in OF or pitching?
I would trade whoever’s value is higher compared to future value, and I think that’s Smoak. I bet you can get a decent haul for him. I think Bour is legit (to an extent) and while I also think Smoak is legit, I think there’s going to be more regression from him than Bour, and I’d say their values are pretty close to equal.
As a clarification, I’d rank them ROS Bour > Smoak > Joseph, I just think you can get the biggest haul for Smoak compared to his ROS value.
Thanks Ben!
What do I do with Addison Russell? Currently benching him for Mercer but I need the roster spot. Peraza, Didi, Tim Anderson, Nick Ahmed, Hernan Perez are all available. I’ve had trouble getting a good trade since the SS market is thin. Is it time for me to stream SS?
Russell is tough man. The guy has all the talent in the world (don’t forget, he was the #1 prospect in baseball at one point) and is just playing so poorly.
His problem has been quality of contact. He’s hitting a bunch of fly balls dying in the outfield. The ground balls are only up slightly, but the flyball rate is the same while the hard hit rate has come down, the HR/FB rate has been cut by more than half, and his infield flyball rate has dropped significantly. He’s hitting a bunch of dead flyballs.
I have to think that’ll correct somewhat, and the BABIP will as well (slightly). I think you need to hang onto him. I’m thinking he bats like .240 the rest of the way and ends the year with like 15 home runs. That’s not great, but the runs and RBI opportunities are too good on that team, I think 75ish runs and RBIs each by the end of the year is very possible.
My gut feeling is that the Eric Thames thrill ride is all but over. Most of his damage was at the expense of the Cincinnati Reds (14R 8HRs 15RBIs) and if you take those stats away he is left with 6HR and 15RBI to go along with 28 runs which is nothing special. You still have him ahead of JD Martinez so what am I missing? Piscotty is sitting around on waivers. I am very close to pulling the trigger.
Thames was due for a regression but I still think he’s great. The power is still there, the average should be solid, he’s awesome. I think he’s still got another 20+ home runs left in him with an average in the .260s the rest of the way.
So I just lost Trout and I have one spot open. My roster is still decent, I still have some pop, little light on speed, but losing Trout obviously impacts both, so I’m looking to add the bat that will contribute the most for at least the next 2 months. Schebler, Travis, Smoak, and Haniger are on the wire.
I mention Haniger because imo he was looking like a ROY candidate earlier, but do you prefer Haniger(despite having to wait another week or two for his return), Schebler, Smoak, or Travis(who was rested for being a little dinged himself tonight)?
I have decent positional flexibility and don’t have a glaring need for one position or the other. Also it’s a 10 team 5×5 HTH league with OBP. Thanks for the time and the feedback in advance.
I like Haniger a lot, but we have no idea what he’s going to look like as he recovers. I’d go with Schebler. You know what you’re getting from him, and what you get is actually really good. Schebler could easily hit another 20 home runs the rest of the year with about a league-average OBP (so look at him like you would a .250-.260 hitter).
Smoak is hot right now, but he’ll cool off. Travis is similar, though to a lesser extent. I don’t see any regression coming from Schebler (aside from the home run pace a bit) and I think he can contribute in every category without hurting you in OBP.