We’ve always known that Shane Baz had good pitching in him. The issue, more often than not, has been waiting for him to be healthy enough to showcase it consistently. Now, with his previous injury concerns hopefully in the rearview, he’s been showing a somewhat new version of himself. It hasn’t been a complete reinvention, and it’s nothing as fancy as that. It’s more like slight modifications with clear signs of the guy he was when he was first called up. Let’s break down what he’s offering these days.
A Mix Of Magic, Mystery, and Prestidigitation
Baz has always had the visual cornerstone of the stereotypical ace pitcher, a hard 4-seam fastball with movement. I think his fastball is likely to play down from how it looks on the broadcast due to how generic it is. It’s not exactly the same as the league averages, but it’s in the same vein, just thrown harder.
I don’t mean to say this is a bad pitch because it’s not. He throws it hard, and he can snag the high glove-side corner for some called strikes due to its arm-side run. It should miss bats on account of being slightly above average in most facets of how we measure fastballs, it’s just that pitches that aren’t unique at all don’t tend to perform as well as ones that are.
Baz’s curveball was previously his third favorite offering, but improved command of the pitch has thrust it to the front of his group of secondary pitches. Stuff models may not be the most fond of it due to its generic shape, but it moves a lot for its velocity, and he throws it with more than enough power. As previously mentioned, his command of the pitch seems much better this year, landing it for strikes and pelting the low glove-side corner at will. He’s nailing his spots with it, a difficult thing to do with a breaking ball that has the speed and movement his curve does.
If the locations hold this is potentially his best pitch, and we haven’t even discussed its bonus feature. His curveball makes an excellent mirror for his 4-seam, coming out on the opposite axis with high spin activity. It’s not a perfect match, but that’s an exceptionally rare trait. His is more than close enough to gain a boost in effectiveness due to the deceptive nature of its spin.
Baz’s changeup is an underrated pitch in my opinion. Like the rest of his mix to this point, it doesn’t have any particularly exceptional standout traits that make it a clear-cut good pitch, but it does just about everything well. It kills 7.6 mph off the fastball, 8.1” of IVB, and has an extra 7.5” of arm-side movement. I feel like I’m reading off a list of average 4-seam-changeup shape metric separations as I’m typing this. It’s generic, but it ticks the boxes well enough to be decent in shape. The thing that makes it underrated is that, much like the curveball, it has very good spin deception. It starts on an axis just 33 minutes off of the 4-seam, and has a higher spin rate than most changeups, giving away next to nothing as to its true nature. He also repeats his release very well, with nearly identical arm angles and release points across the two pitches.
His slider was previously his favored secondary, and his command of the pitch was historically solid. The pitch looks a bit different this year, and his command of it is worse than it used to be. He may be trying a different grip or cue with this pitch, and that could have caused the slip in control, though it’s admittedly a small sample. Whatever the difference, he seems less confident in it than he used to be, which is unfortunate because it’s an excellent breaking ball. Getting this pitch reined in would be a massive difference maker for Baz. It would function well on its own while also serving as a bridge between his fastball and curveball. It’s a bit curious that he’s always favored throwing it to righties, given that gyro sliders are generally thought of as a pitch that does better against opposite-handed hitters. It’s made up 33.2% of his pitches to righties over his time in MLB. In Baz’s case, it might be his most platoon-neutral offering, as all of his pitches are more inclined toward beating lefties.
We’ve Missed Him Most Of All
Unfortunately, all of this comes with a caveat. Baz hasn’t been able to stay healthy for an extended period at any point in his pro career. A wise man once said, “Pitchers will never be practical until they can be made unbreakable.” Or maybe I’m paraphrasing a bit. Repurposed movie quotes for cheap jokes aside, the point stands that Baz has to stay on the mound to reap the benefits of his talents.
(Image via FanGraphs)
Baz seems to have altered his delivery slightly this year, perhaps in the pursuit of staying healthier. His arm looks to be a bit more on time than it used to be. He still generates his power via substantial hip/shoulder separation and shockingly quick rotation. As fast as he moves, it’s a very simple delivery that he repeats well. This aids in commanding his pitches. Whether or not he can stay on the field is more guesswork than anything else, but we can hope.
All In Good Time
Baz has always wielded a wicked arsenal of pitches. For years, he has captured our hearts and minds with the potential of what he could be. Now we have to have the courage to keep the faith that he’s for real this time. He’s ready to step out from behind the curtain and… yeah, that’s enough of that.
In all seriousness, Baz does have a lot to offer as a pitcher. I have high expectations for him, he’s shown a lot of very promising traits this year. The most important thing is staying on the mound. He has the skills to get hitters out already, he has demonstrated this every time we’ve seen him healthy. The exciting thing is that we haven’t had the chance to see him develop. He’s still very similar to the guy who was first called up four years ago. The pitch mix has been shifted slightly, and the fastball lost a bit of movement, but it’s largely the same guy doing a lot of the same things.
As a pure pronator, Baz doesn’t have the most recourse for adding new pitches. He already has a nice version of the typical movement triangle you want to see for his archetype, plus a good curveball.
With that in mind, he could maybe consider adding a sinker? It probably wouldn’t have great movement compared to other sinkers, and it would also likely come out a bit slower than his 4-seam, but something to run in on righties and keep them honest would be nice. I’d advocate for a sweeper, but I don’t want to risk him losing the feel for any of his other pitches.
As I said earlier, the biggest and most obvious development he can make is getting the slider under control again. Having that as a legitimate weapon he can use would be huge for him, both on its own and in how it would open up the rest of his arsenal. It’s a little strange to be writing about a guy with less than 150 MLB innings like he’s a finished product, but the question has never been whether or not he can be effective. I can’t say for sure whether he’s destined for greatness, but being a very good pitcher seems a likely future for him.
