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White Sox Total Runs: O/U 4.5
Matt Boyd (23.8% K-BB% in 2019) has been a major disappointment so far posting a 9.20 ERA and 1.91 WHIP through his first three starts. Ratios can certainly be misleading when were looking at small samples but there are some underlying numbers that are also concerning. His swinging strike rate has dropped from 14% last year to just 10.3%. He’s still getting whiffs on the slider but the rest of his arsenal has seemingly disappeared. In addition his xwOBA of .367 isn’t great, to put it nicely. Basically, he looks far removed from the pitcher we saw last season flashed excellent upside at times. The FTN’s lineup optimizer has the White Sox implied total at well over five runs. It’s not hard to imagine a lineup with the likes of Jose Abreu, Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, and company scratching off more than four runs against a really struggling pitcher who was homer prone to begin with. At .307, the Sox have generated the eighth-best wOBA against sliders so far this season, which could be trouble for Boyd’s go-to offering.
Pick: Over (-112 DK)
Twins at Brewers Run Line
The Twins have the big advantage at starting pitching today as they’ll be throwing Kenta Maeda (31.8% CSW, 18.9% K-BB% in 2019) who has picked up right where he left off as a Dodger. Meanwhile the Brewers will counter with Eric Lauer (25.8% CSW, 13.4% K-BB% in 2019). The southpaw Lauer has shown very little in the way of strikeout ability with just a 21.2% K rate last season and he’ll be at a decided disadvantage having to face a lineup loaded with power that last season mauled lefties to the tune of a .361 team wOBA, trailing only the Houston Astros.
Pick: Twins -1.5 (+116 DK)
Mariners Total Runs: O/U 4.5
Only two starts from Jordan Lyles (15.2% K-BB% in 2019) so your usual small sample size disclaimer applies but one thing that really stands out are the lack of whiffs. Out of his 94 total fastballs thrown he’s gotten just one whiff. One! Overall, his swinging strike of 5.1% is about half of what it was last season. It’s never fun wagering on the Mariners, but if you’re one, walking guys, which Lyles is also doing right now, and two, not getting any swings and misses that’s usually a recipe for allowing runs. The FTN Lineup optimizer currently has the Mariners implied run total at five runs.
Pick: Over (+107 DK)
Mariners at Rangers Total Runs: O/U 9
Let’s stick with this same game. We’ve already talked about the Mariners matchup against Lyles. The Rangers get a chance to tee off against Taijuan Walker, who really hasn’t pitched much at the major league level in roughly two full years. So far he’s had one excellent start against he Athletics sandwiched by two dud outings where he didn’t manage to get out of the fourth inning. Walker’s repertoire is pretty limited right now as his splitter is drawing whiffs at just an 8.3% clip. If that continues, he’ll have to continue lean heavily on his fastball. That’s not too great for Walker, who doesn’t have anything close to a dominant heater. Right now he simply doesn’t look like a pitcher who is a good bet to go deep into this game. That leaves us with a Mariners bullpen that ranks 16th in baseball in K-BB% so far this season. This game brings together two starting pitchers whose skills are highly suspect right now. FTN’s projections have both of these teams pegged to score five runs.
Pick: Over (-118 DK)
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)