Best Bets of the Day – August 18th

Let's find some winners!

I remain trapped in mediocrity with a 1-2 showing last week. Frankie Montas missed his strikeout total by one and Matt Harvey SOMEHOW found five punchouts while the underdog Marlins shut out the Padres. So, my record stands at 25-28-1 (-1.4u) as I try to climb out of my hole before summer is out.


Padres @ Rockies Run Line


I faded the Padres last week and am returning to the well here. Jake Arrieta will make his debut with San Diego after being waived by the Cubs. Let me repeat that, waived by the CUBS! I am not very confident that the Padres will be able to coax much more out of the veteran right-hander.

Moreover, this game will be at Coors Field, where all bets are (proverbially) off. For all their issues as a team, the Rockies are 40-21 at home! That is astounding and gives me even more confidence in this play.

Pick: ROCKIES ML (+130 DraftKings, +118 FanDuel)


A’s @ White Sox Run Line


Sticking with the underdogs, bookmakers are undervaluing the A’s today. Certainly, the pitching matchup of Lance Lynn vs. Cole Irvin favors Chicago heavily, but there are some mitigating factors that make the A’s more capable than most to beat Lynn. First, the A’s excel hitting away from home. The Oakland Colosseum has one of the lowest Park Factors in baseball and that is reflected by the A’s having the sixth-highest road OPS in baseball (.741) and ninth-lowest at home (.707).

Also, the A’s are one of baseball’s best teams at hitting fastballs and Lance Lynn has one of the highest fastball (four-seam, two-seam, sinker, cutter) usage rates in baseball at 92.9%. The A’s have the 11th best xwOBA (.353) against fastballs as a team this season and that ranking jumps up to sixth when on the road. There is too much value here to pass up.

Pick: A’s (+160 DK, +160 FD)


Charlie Morton O/U 6.5 Strikeouts


Morton has put a rocky April and May behind him in a spectacular way. He has a 2.92 ERA, 3.02 FIP, and 28.3 K% since June 1st. This is the Morton we have come to know over the last few years and Atlanta is sure glad to have him at the top of his game for the stretch run. He gets the Marlins in LoanDepot Park today and is sure to dice them up.

Pick: OVER 6.5 Ks (-110 DK, -110 FD)


Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

James Schiano

Graduate of The Ohio State University and New York City dweller, I am a die-hard Mets fan who can generally be found screaming at the TV or making wise-cracks to anyone who'll hear them. Follow me on Twitter @JeterHadNoRange

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