Best Bets of the Day: July 31

Nathan Hursh gives away his best bets of the day.

Royals at Blue Jays First Inning O/U 0.5


On the surface, there is a decent chance that a first-inning run is plated in this game. Pitching for the Royals is Mike Minor (8-8, 5.32 ERA). As we can see, his overall ERA this season is not impressive. Pitching for the Blue Jays is rookie right-hander Alek Manoah (2-1, 2.90 ERA). Although Manoah has been solid all season, he is still just a rookie. Unpredictability is always on the table.

Having said that, both of these pitchers have been phenomenal in the first inning this season. Minor’s first-inning ERA is 2.57. Opponents are hitting .155/.178/.239 against him in the first inning this year. Manoah has been even better to start the game. In eight starts this season, the 23-year-old has yet to allow a first-inning run. Opponents are hitting .074/.167/.074 against him. Perhaps Vladimir Guerrero Jr. cranks a first-inning home run and all of the information provided above is proven moot. I’ll take my chances with the under though.

Pick: under 0.5 first-inning runs (+110, DK)


Astros O/U 4.5 Runs


Over their past four games, Houston’s offense has been white-hot. In those games, they’ve scored a total of 36 runs, or nine per game. In the game this afternoon, they will face left-hander Alex Wood (9-3, 3.65 ERA). Although Wood has been solid this season and even better this month (2.82 ERA over four starts), I like the Astros to continue swinging the bats well. On the season, Houston hitters lead the league in fWAR (22.7), runs scored (571), and wRC+ (119). Against lefties in general, they still lead MLB in wRC+ (also 119). I believe the Astros will score at least five runs tonight. Wood has had a nice season, but he is by no means elite. The Giants have a middle-of-the-pack bullpen. It is not great but not terrible either. The Astros will have their chances. Looking at the odds, this over pick is hard to pass up.

Pick: Astros over 4.5 runs (+105)


Yankees O/U 4.5 Runs


Just to be clear, the Yankees have not scored five runs in a game in over a week. Over their last eight games, New York has failed to reach the five-run mark. That said, the Yankees’ offense looks much different than it did a few days ago. With the additions of Anthony Rizzo, who homered in his New York debut last night, and Joey Gallo, it looks as though the Bronx Bombers could be back. As of this moment, the Marlins do not have a listed starting pitcher for tonight’s game. I’d think it’s safe to assume that whoever said starter ends up being will not have a great amount of major league experience. I like the Yankees to break out the lumber tonight and reach five runs. Although a lot of the players in their lineup have underperformed this season, just looking at the names is a spectacle in itself. And once against, I just love the odds.

Pick: Yankees over 4.5 runs (+115, DK)


Nathan Hursh Overall Record: (31-48-2)

Net Money (assuming all wagers are $100): –$1,710.96


Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Nathan Hursh

Nathan Hursh has been a baseball fan for as long as he can remember. He grew up in Pittsburgh and loves the Pirates. Don't hold that against him though, he has suffered enough because of it. Find Nathan on Twitter and Instagram at Nathan_Hursh.

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