I made a little trade with my pal Nathan Hursh, so I’m here with the people on Tuesday instead of Wednesday! Last week, I gave one great pick (John Means for the win), one OK pick (Bieber missed by 0.5 Ks), and one awful pick (Lewis Thorpe was better than I expected), bringing my overall record to 9-6-1 (+3.3u).
Here’s to finding some more success this time around!
Giants O/U 4.5 Runs
This number is a bit high for the Giants. Their offense is unspectacular and the game is being played at Oracle Park, one of the worst environments for offense in the majors. The line has to be a response to Jordan Lyles pitching for the Rangers. Entirely unspectacular for years now, Lyles does little to keep runs off the board.
I’m going to buck conventional wisdom here and fade the Giants. Despite Lyles’ struggles, the Rangers’ underrated bullpen is locked and loaded for today’s game. Their three best relievers, Josh Sborz, Ian Kennedy, and Joely Rodríguez, are all available and fresh. Sborz is the only one who’s pitched in the last two days. Additionally, Hyeon-Jong Yang (who I WRONGLY faded last week) is in line to throw behind Lyles today. The rookie has been a revelation after a lengthy career in the KBO, with a 97th percentile Whiff% in his first 12.1 career innings.
PICK: Giants UNDER 4.5 (-113 DraftKings, FanDuel -120)
Marcus Stroman O/U 6.5 Ks
While seeming high for a pitcher not known for his strikeouts (21% K rate) and an Orioles team that does not strike out very often (13th highest K% in majors), I’m in love with this number for Stroman. Last time out, he threw his highest percentage of sliders on the season at 49%. A massive adjustment for the usual sinker-baller, Stroman has 14 Ks over his last two starts (1o IP), compared to 15 in his first four (24 IP). If the pitch mix holds to a relative degree, he will be sitting Orioles down with ease.
PICK: OVER 6.5 Ks (+115 DK, +122 FanDuel)
Yankees @ Rays ML
I generally tend to avoid betting on actual games (big prop guy), but find myself coming back to this matchup. The Yankees’ trouble with the Rays is well documented. The Rays are 15-3 against the Bombers since last September, which includes a postseason ousting and 5-1 record already this season. There is not a ton statistically to back this up, the Rays just seem to have their number as of late. Jordan Montgomery does not instill much confidence, and plus money here is too good to pass up.
PICK: Rays (+110 DK, +110 FD)
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)