Bets of the Day — July 16

Ryan Amore highlights Friday's best bets around baseball.

Tyler Mahle Total Strikeouts


Welcome back! Friday greets us with a full slate, with all thirty teams in action. The potential exception being the Yankees and Red Sox as they sit in a COVID induced limbo that puts their game in jeopardy. Let’s start off with two division rivals. We’ve seen this matchup twice so far this year. Just before the break, the Brewers got the best of Tyler Mahle as they scratched off three runs against him. He recorded just six strikeouts, but the whiffs were there in abundance as he recorded a 35.9% CSW overall, including a 43.2% CSW on his four-seam fastball alone, an important indicator. The Brewers, meanwhile, have been worth targeting for strikeouts, as their team K rate of 25.9% ranks sixth-highest. From that standpoint, it’s not a coincidence that Mahle, whose 29.5% K rate is tied for 15th among qualified starters, spiked 12 strikeouts against them in their other meeting this year back on June 16th. Prior to the break, Mahle was trending in the right direction as his CSW% was over 32% in four of five starts, with his pitch count also exceeding 100 in four of five. 

Pick: Over 7.5 (+120 DraftKings)


Blue Jays Alternate Run Line


In spite of missing George Springer for most of the first half, the Blue Jays’ team wOBA of .335 ranks second in baseball. They’ll face Jordan Lyles tonight, who has allowed a .351 wOBA to opposing hitters this season (.344 xwOBA) in addition to just an 18.2% K rate. Not good. The Jays will turn to Robbie Ray who has turned out to be their ace this season. Among qualified starters, his 25.9% K-BB% ranks fifth. Against lefties this season, the Rangers have mustered just a .307 team wOBA, 23rd. On paper, this just looks like a big mismatch that you should take advantage of. 

Pick: TOR Blue Jays -2.5 (+115 DraftKings) 


Charlie Morton Total Strikeouts


Charlie Morton has been cooking lately, earning over 31% CSW in each of his last five starts prior to the break. The Rays, meanwhile, in addition to being his former employer are also a team that strikes out in droves, evidence being a 26.8% K rate, second-highest in baseball. The Rays have not seen Morton yet this year and they’ll have to make due with a pitcher in their lineup as they head to Atlanta further adding to the strikeout upside. 

Pick: Over 7.5 (-130 DraftKings) 

Ryan Amore Overall Record: 21-23-0


Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Ryan Amore

A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club, Ryan Amore has been writing things at Pitcher List since 2019. He grew up watching the Yankees and fondly remembers Charlie Hayes catching the final out of the '96 WS. He appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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