An extremely short Monday slate will probably be even shorter with a likely PPD in Colorado. Fear not faithful followers, we are still bringing you the best bets of the day despite the sparse schedule:
Reds @ Pirates Pitcher to Record a Win
Tyler Mahle is coming off by far his worst start of the season, allowing 6 ER in 5 IP against the Cubs on May 2nd. Being over a week removed from that outing, Mahle is in a prime bounce-back spot against Pittsburgh on Monday. Prior to his last start, Mahle had not allowed more than 2 ER in any start this season. The Pirates are a very weak offensive team, hitting for a .297 wOBA and 88 wRC+ against RHP, so Mahle should have no problem cruising through 5-6 innings.
On the opposite side, Mitch Keller is coming off one of his best starts of the season, although it wasn’t as good as it may appear. Despite allowing 0 ER in 5.2 IP with 5 K’s, Keller had a season-low 4.8 SwStr% and a measly .143 BABIP. The Reds have been struggling with the bats of late, but they did score 30 runs in 3 games against the Pirates in early April. Cincy is one of the top teams against RHP in baseball (.336 wOBA, 109 wRC+) and I think they provide Mahle with enough run support to get the win.
Pick: Tyler Mahle to Record a Win (+120 DK)
Red Sox @ Orioles Total Runs O/U 9
Two of the hotter offenses wrap up a 4-game series on Monday as Boston tosses out Martin Perez to take on Baltimore and Jorge Lopez. Baltimore is in the top third of the league against LHP (.323 wOBA, 110 wRC+) and the likes of Trey Mancini and Maikel Franco have had success against Perez in the past. Boston has been on fire offensively over the last week buoyed by the likes of Christian Vasquez (.461 wOBA), Xander Bogaerts (.453 wOBA), and Rafael Devers (.441 wOBA) during their 4-game win streak. The Red Sox are averaging over 8 runs per game during the streak and they put up 7 runs in 4 innings against Lopez back on April 11th and I anticipate more of the same in a run-fest Monday.
Pick: OVER 9 (-115 DK, -108 FD)
Rangers @ Giants Total Runs O/U 7
By far the best pitching matchup of the night pits Texas’ Kyle Gibson against the revelation that is Alex Wood in San Francisco. After allowing 5 ER in 0.1 IP on Opening Day, Gibson has allowed just 6 ER in the 41 IP over 6 starts since. The veteran righty has done an excellent job limiting baserunners and is going deep into games as a result. Wood has been equally as impressive in his 4 starts with San Francisco and gets a Rangers offense that has been much better against RHP than LHP this season (109 wRC+ vs 98 wRC+). With both of these teams playing exceptionally well to start the season, I like both defenses to back their respective starters well and runs to be at a premium in this one.
Pick: UNDER 7 (+105 DK, -102 FD)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 15-17-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$253.07
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)