Cincinnati Reds Total Runs
The Reds offense has been productive all year with a team wOBA of .329 (fourth). Tonight they are back in their home launching pad, GABP a fantastic setting for power, of which the Reds have plenty. Tonight’s starter is the southpaw Tyler Alexander. He’s done a good job limiting walks but the rest of the profile seems suspect. He’s allowed a 10.5% barrel rate along with a below-average K rate of 19.5%. He shouldn’t be long for this game, as he was used out of the pen in his last appearance (49 pitches) which suggests that we should see a Tigers relief corps that has combined for a 1.46 WHIP, tied for second-worst with Colorado.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+105 DraftKings)
Red Sox vs Indians Total Runs
Cal Quantrill is the relatively unknown part of this game. While he’s not a big strikeout guy with just a 19.5% K rate he’s been otherwise impressive limiting opposing hitters to just a .307 xwOBA and 6.1% barrel rate. Sure, the Red Sox are a tough offense (.331 team wOBA vs RHP, fourth) but we’ve seen Quantrill already stymie them his last time out holding them to just a single run across seven innings. As Matt Wallach points out here in his excellent GD from before the season, Quantrill has shown plus command so there is definitely some potential here. Daniel Port also wrote a fantastic in-season breakdown on Quantrill you can find here. Be sure to check them both out.
On the other side of this game is Nathan Eovaldi. He’s been basically everything the Red Sox were hoping for when they signed him, with an above-average K rate of 24.5% K rate and fantastic walk rate just over 4%. And he’s held opposing hitters to just a .287 xwOBA. This looks like a tough spot for hitters on both sides of this game.
Pick: Under 9 (-120 DraftKings)
Tampa Bay Rays Total Runs
Randy Dobnak has been all sorts of bad in his 43.1 IP this year. He’s got just a 12.5% K rate along with a 1.65 WHIP, an xwOBA allowed of .403, and a 7.57 xERA. The Rays offense, meanwhile, has been productive against RHP with a .325 wOBA (eighth) in that split. I’m a fan of this lineup against a shaky RHP, Dobnak definitely qualifies, as two of their best power bats in Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows get the platoon advantage. Dobnak’s minuscule K rate is a potential boon for the powerful bat of Mike Zunino too. Wander Franco being in the lineup tonight would, of course, be a big boost but even if he’s sidelined tonight (headache) I still like the Rays lineup to exploit a struggling pitcher in Dobnak.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+110 DraftKings)
Ryan Amore Overall Record: 32-30-0
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)