The New York Mets had MLB’s highest payroll in the 2023 season at $374.4 million, when configured for the competitive-balance tax. The New York Yankees were No. 2 with $293.3 million, while the San Diego Padres were third at $291.2 million.
What did all three of these teams have in common for the 2023 season?
They all missed the playoffs.
So money doesn’t always win, but it does give you an edge in competitiveness.
Right?
Well, as a well-known personality who amassed only four winning records in 15 years as a college football head coach likes to say: Not so fast, my friend.
In MLB’s expanded postseason, which has only been in effect for the last three years, the average payroll ranking of clubs in the 12-team field has skewed outside of the top 12 payrolls. Of the 18 teams in the National League that made the postseason, five ranked 13th or lower. In the American League, it was 10 of 18. In fact, nine of the AL participants had payrolls that ranked in the 20s, including four in 2024.
All that says is that NL teams, on average, spend more than AL teams do. The AL has won the World Series in two of those three years (Houston Astros in 2022, Texas Rangers in 2023).
The expansion of the playoff field from 10 to 12 teams results in more teams playing meaningful games in August and September, which is terrific for fan engagement and the turnstiles. It makes the trade deadline a little trickier for some as they might seem in a position to compete but the front office has other ideas and decides to sell key assets.
Sometimes that goes a different direction. Take the 2024 Detroit Tigers, for example. The Tigers were in the midst of a season-worst five-game losing streak and sitting at 52-56, 13 games out of first place in the AL Central and 6½ out of the third and final AL wild-card spot. The Tigers traded away right-handed starter Jack Flaherty at the deadline buzzer, yet went on a run to clinch the final spot. Then the Tigers made a splash in the postseason, sweeping the AL West champion Astros before falling in a decisive Game 5 to the AL Central-winning Cleveland Guardians.
And the Tigers had a payroll of $107.7 million, which ranked 28th of 30 teams.
So owners and front offices face the conundrum each offseason. How far do they go in order to make the postseason? Since we are in the month where college basketball’s March Madness takes over, the answer is: You just need a ticket to the dance.
That can be a tired excuse for fan bases starved for a championship, but the evidence is there to support that theory.
Postseason Qualifiers and Payroll Rank
In the NL, the average payroll ranking for the six playoff entrants was 5.7 in 2022, 13.2 in 2023, and 6.7 in 2024. Over in the AL, it was 15.3 in 2022, 16 in 2023, and 17 in 2024.
Average Payroll Rank of All Playoff Teams
How does that translate into playoff seeding? On average, only four of the top 10 payrolls made the field, with them all being in the NL. It would have been five had it not been for the 2023 Miami Marlins and their 23rd-ranked payroll, which dragged down the average of No. 5 seeds in the NL. The anomaly in the Senior Circuit was the NL Central champion, which has earned the No. 3 seed all three years with an average payroll ranking of No. 16.3.
Meanwhile, none of the AL seeds had an average payroll rank in the top 10. In fact, the No. 2 seed has a better payroll rank than the No. 1 seed over the past three years at 11.7. The No. 1 seed is at 13.7, bloated from the 2023 Baltimore Orioles and their young roster surprisingly winning the AL East with a 29th-ranked payroll of $89.4 million.
Payroll Rank By Seeding
Curiously, the number of top payrolls making the playoffs has decreased over the last three seasons. In 2022, the top four payrolls and eight of the top 10 punched their postseason tickets, while only five of the top 10—headlined by the aforementioned top three—did not make it in 2023, a feat repeated in 2024, only this time with the top three.
Each of the last two seasons, four teams with payrolls in the 20s made it to October, with another three in 2022.
But what about winning the World Series? Yes, the Los Angeles Dodgers were the NL’s top seed and paid a whopping $352.9 million—second to the Mets’ 356.5 million—to win it all in 2024. The Dodgers were one of three teams last season with payrolls surpassing $300 million (the Yankees were No. 3 at $321.1 million). In 2023, the Rangers won out of the AL’s fifth seed with the No. 8 payroll of $242.1 million, while the Astros won in 2022 from the AL’s top seed with the No. 9 payroll of $210.7 million.
Does it matter if a team spends a ton of money? Not really. The Mets are the poster child for not seeing the results. In each of the last three seasons, the Mets finished with the No. 1 payroll. Their playoff seeding was No. 4 in 2022 (wild card), did not qualify in 2023, and No. 6 in 2024 (wild card). They won two playoff series, both in 2024, when the team said it wasn’t necessarily trying to make the playoffs, instead focusing on making a run in 2025.
But just making the dance regardless of whether you have the No. 1 payroll or No. 28 gives you a shot at the glass slipper.