With the excitement of the trade deadline over, it is a good time to step back from the action to analyze how well certain players might perform for the remainder of the season with their new organizations. Adding an extra bat to the lineup at the trade deadline can make all the difference in turning a given team into a championship contender, with the 2021 Atlanta Braves trade deadline acquisitions of Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler, and Eddie Rosario and the 2015 New York Mets trade for Yoenis Céspedes being some prime examples of how a few under the radar transactions can make a big difference come October. In this article, we will look at the trades of Randy Arozarena, Jesse Winker, and Lane Thomas and attempt to identify how impactful these hitters will be to their new organizations over the remainder of the season.
Traded to the Seattle Mariners from the Tampa Bay Rays on July 25th, the Randy Arozarena trade was the first major trade of this season’s trade deadline. It was no surprise that the Mariners would be seeking to acquire at least one impact bat given the team’s offensive struggles this season, and placing Arozarena in left field should give Seattle an instant offensive upgrade, despite a slower start to the year than usual.
As shown by the table above, Arozarena has experienced a slight decrease in offensive production in 2024 compared to his output of the past two seasons. Arozarena’s power output has remained constant over the past three seasons, with his .186 isolated power this season being greater than the .171 isolated power he produced last season. Most of the decline in year-to-year offensive production can be attributed to bad “batted ball luck” that Arozarena has experienced this season, with his .258 BABIP being well below his career average BABIP of .318. While some of this decline can be attributed to variance, Arozarena has also hit more fly balls this season which will lower a player’s BABIP since fly balls produce a lower batting average on balls hit into play. This appears to byproduct of an increased emphasis on pulling fly balls for more power, as Arozarena has increased his pulled fly ball rate from 5.3% in 2023 to 9.3% in 2024.
Has this improved emphasis on pulling fly balls been a positive adjustment for Arozarena? As shown by the heat maps above, Arozarena has seen his wOBA increase when he pulls the ball more frequently this season, however, FB% and wOBA do not share the same relationship. While pulling fly balls is an ideal strategy for all hitters, it is especially important for hitters with lesser batted ball quality given the lower exit velocity threshold needed to hit for power on these types of batted balls. With a Max. EV of 112.1 MPH and a hard hit rate that has always been over 40%, pulling fly balls is not a necessity for Arozarena to hit for power, and perhaps this approach has negatively impacted his offensive profile given the decline in wRC+ he has experienced this season.
As I have written about on multiple occasions now here at Pitcher List, T-Mobile Park is a difficult park for hitters to produce which has given the Mariners a lot of difficulty in recent seasons in acquiring impact offensive players. Four-seam fastballs in particular have given hitters a lot of issues, potentially due to a deceptive batter’s eye in center field. Arozarena has a 29.3% whiff rate against four-seam fastballs this season and had a 32.8% whiff rate against four-seamers last season. It will be interesting to see if Arozarena experiences similar difficulties that other hitters have experienced at T-Mobile Park, and whether this will negatively impact his strikeout rate moving forward.
For a team in desperate need of an increase in offensive production, Randy Arozarena projects to be an instant upgrade to the Mariners’ offense as the everyday starter in left field. It will interesting to see both how well Arozarena adjusts to the difficult hitting environment of T-Mobile Park, and whether his offensive production will regress in a positive direction over the final two months of the season.
Signed by the Washington Nationals last offseason after two underwhelming seasons with the Mariners and Brewers, Jesse Winker produced a nice bounce-back season for the Nationals during the first half of the season. Traded to the New York Mets on July 28th, Winker projects to be an upgrade in right field as the Mets seek to clinch a postseason berth.
As shown by the table above, Winker has had a difficult past couple of seasons, failing to produce a wRC+ north of 110 since he produced a 148 wRC+ during his all-star season of 2021. While Winker still displayed excellent plate discipline throughout his two “down” seasons, Winker has regained some power so far this season which has enabled him to experience a resurgence in offensive production. While Winker still has not hit a ball with an exit velocity of at least 110 MPH since 2022, Winker’s hard hit rate has increased this season from 31.9% to 37.6%, which is likely a major reason why he has regained his ability to hit for power. Winker’s 14 stolen bases this season is also by far a career-high (he has only stolen 17 bases throughout his entire career), however, since the Nationals lead all of Major League Baseball in stolen base attempts, this is likely a result of the team’s overall philosophy regarding stolen bases and it will be interesting to see if the Mets give a Winker a similar “green light” on the bases moving forward.
Throughout Winker’s career, he has been a much better hitter against right-handed pitchers than left-handed pitchers, and this season has been no different. As shown by the table above, Winker has produced a 138 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers while only producing a 93 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. This is in line with Winker’s career platoon splits, as he has produced a 131 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and an 87 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers since making his Major League debut during the 2017 season. These splits indicate that Winker is best suited to be a strong-side platoon corner outfielder, however, it appears that the Mets will be utilizing him as their everyday right fielder, as the Nationals did, for the remainder of the season.
The main question I have regarding Winker’s offensive profile is whether his BABIP will be sustainable over the course of a full season. This season, Winker is currently producing a .319 BABIP, above his career BABIP of .299 which is typically a signal for upcoming regression. During the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Winker hit for the highest fly ball rates of his career which resulted in a lower BABIP without a corresponding increase in power output, leading to a decline in offensive production. This season, Winker’s ground ball/fly ball distribution has been closer to the levels he produced during his peak seasons, which could be a major reason for his resurgence this season. While a .319 BABIP could be unsustainable, it is not unreasonable to expect that Winker’s BABIP will be greater than .300 once the season is completed. Jesse Winker was one of my favorite players who was likely to be traded at this year’s trade deadline, and he figures to be an impactful contributor as the Mets look to return to the postseason.
Acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Jon Lester at the 2021 trade deadline, Lane Thomas has been a fixture in the Washington Nationals outfield throughout the entirety of their post-championship rebuild. Traded to the Cleveland Guardians on July 29th, Thomas projects to be an upgrade in right field for Cleveland as the team looks to return to the postseason.
As shown by the table above, Thomas has had a solid past couple of seasons, producing a 109 wRC+ in 2023 and a 107 wRC+ so far this season. Thomas has seen a decrease in power output this season, however, improvements in both his walk and strikeout rates have allowed for his offensive production to remain above league average. These improvements in walk and strikeout rates appear to be sustainable, as Thomas has decreased his O-Swing% (28.1% to 20.3%) and his swinging strike rate (9.0% to 7.5%) from last season.
The decrease in power output that Thomas has produced this season is likely due to a change in his batted ball profile. While Thomas has been hitting the ball in the air more frequently this season, he has seen a decrease in his pulled fly ball rate which has caused him to not tap into his power more frequently. Perhaps the Guardians will encourage Thomas to focus on adjusting his contact point further out in front, allowing him to pull more fly balls and tap into more in-game power.
Similar to Winker, Thomas has displayed some wide platoon splits throughout his Major League career, faring much better against left-handed pitchers. As shown by the table above, Thomas has produced a 157 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers while only producing an 87 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. This is consistent with Thomas’s career platoon splits, as he has produced a 141 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers and an 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers throughout his Major League career. These platoon splits indicate that Thomas would be best suited in a platoon role where he can be utilized mostly against left-handed pitchers, however, the Guardians optioned likely platoon partner Will Brennan to Triple-A Columbus upon trading for Thomas, indicating that Cleveland intends to utilize Thomas as their everyday right fielder moving forward. Acquiring Thomas gives the Guardians a right-handed bat that should provide their lineup with the necessary reinforcements to help the team make a postseason run come October.
In conclusion, Randy Arozarena, Jesse Winker, and Lane Thomas represent significant additions to their new teams as the playoff race heats up. While each player brings unique strengths and potential challenges, their acquisitions demonstrate how trades at the deadline can impact a team’s offensive outlook. While the Mariners, Mets, and Guardians surely hope that their respective acquisitions will have a similar impact to the additions that the 2021 Braves and 2015 Mets made at the trade deadline, these transactions project to improve each team’s offensive outlook as they look to make a postseason push this fall.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)