Looking at his season numbers, 2024 was a season to forget for Cade Povich —a 5.20 ERA and 4.79 FIP in 79.2 innings are mediocre numbers, at best.
Still, Povich showed in September the potential that he showed as a top 100 prospect entering 2024—in 5 starts, Povich had a 2.60 ERA and 3.13 FIP, allowing no more than 5 hits in a start while striking out 32 in 27.2 innings.
This strong September was crucial for Povich, who had a 6.58 ERA and 5.67 FIP on the season after a disastrous start against the Dodgers to close out August. After a strong rebound start against the White Sox on September 3rd, where Povich struck out 10 in 7.1 innings without allowing a run, Povich settled in to finish the season on an encouraging note.
Not all of his September starts came against weak teams like the White Sox, either; Povich faced the extremely hot Tigers twice, going 5 innings with 2 runs allowed in both starts.
What Changed?
Beginning with his start against the White Sox, which saw Povich’s best numbers of the year, there were a few things different in Povich’s approach to getting such impressive results.
First was his stuff/command—especially against Chicago, Povich’s PLV was in a great spot, averaging 5.60 in that start and 5.21 in September, compared to 5.12 on the year.
Povich’s results, in addition to his run prevention, looked great in September as well.
To sustain a low ERA, these numbers are in a good place – while they likely won’t be as strong over the course of a full season, Povich doing so in the final month of such a rough season is a good sign for his future.
Outside of his results, Povich saw some changes to his pitch mix that, while less significant due to their smaller sample, do indicate he learned from some mistakes earlier in the year.
Overall, Povich heavily relied on his four-seam, with a fairly wide distribution among his 5 secondaries that vary in effectiveness.
After entirely dropping his cutter, Cade bumped up his usage across the board, with his four-seam and sweeper, in particular, seeing heavier usage.
This was definitely for the best – batters hit .333 against his cutter with a .464 xwOBA on the year, compared to a .218 and .330 xwOBA against his four-seam and sweeper, respectively.
Povich’s four-seam and sweeper both saw far better results in September, with a 31.4 and 31.9 CSW%, respectively, compared to 26.9 and 26.1 on the year.
This largely stems from his improved command in September, which helped his solid stuff play up. Against the White Sox on the 3rd in particular, Povich’s four-seam averaged an elite 5.99 PLV, with his execution seeing a career-best 40.5 CSW% on the pitch—a starter with such elite results from a four-seam is uncommon, but doing so while averaging only 92.6 mph on the pitch is even more impressive.
Overall, Povich showed flashes of the potential that led him to post a career-best 3.48 ERA in AAA this year—to do so over a full season, however, would take a lot.
Looking Into 2025
Generally, Povich made the right changes in September to sustain a full season of success – maybe not to the extent of his 2.60 ERA/3.13 FIP, but enough to be an above-average starter.
Still, there were some warning signs—his BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB% all improved in September despite his exit velocities and average launch angle allowed staying relatively the same.
The main takeaway from 2024 should be that Cade Povich learns from his mistakes. He was able to adjust and remove his cutter from regular usage while recognizing his four-seam’s potential despite its lower velocity.
While Povich’s batted ball luck improved vastly in September, he was still performing closer to his expected stats than earlier in the year, as well.
There are still some rough patches in Povich’s game—his sweeper command was often spotty, curveball was hit hard and in-zone far too often, and he rarely generated whiffs and chases until September. Still, there is enough to like here to consider a guy like Povich for a dynasty team, or even a late-round pick for 2025.
Looking at the Orioles’ rotation—without Povich providing depth at worst and a mid-to-bottom of the rotation arm at best, their situation would look far more dire with Corbin Burnes likely departing in free agency. With Povich finishing 2024 as strong as he did, I would feel comfortable seeing him filling that spot, and hopefully as a more respected arm in the future.