Last season, Bobby Witt Jr. produced one of the most impressive regular season campaigns in recent memory. Combining elite shortstop defense with an offensive breakout, Witt produced 10.4 fWAR over 161 games, leading the Royals to their first Postseason berth since 2015, and likely would’ve won the American League MVP if Aaron Judge did not exist. So far this season, the Royals have underperformed expectations, currently sitting at 34-38, and Witt has taken a step back offensively, currently producing a 120 wRC+ compared to the 168 wRC+ he produced in 2024. While his defense has remained elite at shortstop, this level of offensive production has fallen short of his preseason projections and has raised some questions about his expectations moving forward. This article will attempt to identify if Witt has changed his offensive approach, how pitchers are approaching him differently this season, and whether he will be able to reclaim his prior levels of offensive production over the remainder of the season.
Simply put, Witt produced one of the best seasons of all time by a shortstop in 2024. Over 709 plate appearances, Witt produced a 168 wRC+, 8.0% walk rate, 15.0% strikeout rate, and .256 ISO, with 32 home runs and 32 stolen bases. Defensively, Witt was also one of the best players in all of Major League Baseball, with 16 outs above average and a fielding run value of 12. To top it all off, Witt was among the best baserunners in the game with a baserunning run value of 5 and led the league in sprint speed at 30.5 ft/sec.
So far in 2025, Witt has remained one of the best defensive players in Major League Baseball, currently displaying the 2nd-highest defensive run value (11) and the most outs above average (15) among qualified players, and he continues to be one of the best baserunners in the game with a baserunning run value of 4 with 21 stolen bases. Offensively, Witt has seen a slight regression in his power output, with his ISO declining from .256 in 2024 to .201 in 2025, and his bat-to-ball ability, with his strikeout rate increasing from 15.0% in 2024 to 18.7% in 2025. These strikeout rate and isolated power values are still comfortably above league-average, however, they are a noticeable change from Witt’s MVP-level performance he displayed last season.
Taking a look “under the hood”, Witt’s Process+ metrics illustrate the decline in offensive performance that he has experienced so far this season. While his swing decision ability has remained relatively the same according to the model, Witt’s contact grade has declined from 115 to 105, which in turn declined his power grade from 125 to 111, resulting in a decline in his Process+ grade from a 137 in 2024 to a 116 in 2025. This decline in Process+ appears to be driven primarily by a drop in contact ability, which has had a cascading effect on Witt’s overall offensive value. To better understand the root cause of this contact dip, let’s examine Witt’s underlying batted ball quality and swing tendencies so far this season.
Since making his major league debut in 2022, Witt has consistently been able to hit the ball hard. As shown by the table above, Witt has displayed an average bat speed between 74-75 mph in each of the past three seasons and has consistently displayed a squared-up rate (the ability to hit the ball on the “sweet spot” of the bat) around 27.0%. Exit velocity is generated through a combination of bat speed and collision efficiency, and Witt’s ability to consistently generate bat speed and square up the baseball at above-average levels has allowed him to hit the ball hard with consistency throughout his career. Witt has also displayed an ability to hit the ball hard in the air, posting double-digit barrel rates in each of the past three seasons, and his air rate has increased from 62.5% in 2024 to 65.2% in 2025.
The heat maps above depict the areas of the zone where Witt produces damage (ISO), has been pitched (Pitch%), and frequently swings (Swing%) against opposing pitches over the past two seasons. Most of the hard contact that Witt produces comes against pitches located low-and-in, and it is apparent that Witt is actively seeking to produce damage on these pitches, as he frequently swings at pitches located on the inner third of the plate. Pitchers have taken notice of his relative passivity on the outer third of the plate, as pitchers tend to throw more pitches in this area of the strike zone, as they are confident in their ability to either generate called strikes or minimize his offensive production with these pitches when facing Witt.
While pitchers have been able to minimize the amount of damage they allow against Witt by throwing him more outside pitches, this does not fully explain the change in offensive production Witt has experienced from last season. As demonstrated by his Decision+ metrics earlier, Witt has always displayed below-average swing decision ability, and so far in 2025, he is swinging and missing at pitches outside of the strike zone more frequently than in 2024. So far this season, Witt’s Contact% has declined from 80.7% in 2024 to 77.6% in 2025, which has largely been driven by a decline in O-Contact% from 63.9% to 58.1%.
My first guess upon identifying this change in O-Contact% was to identify whether opposing pitchers were utilizing their pitches differently against Witt compared to last season. The increased frequency of utilizing pitches on the outer-third of the plate to Witt suggests that pitchers have been adjusting their game plan, and perhaps pitchers have begun to utilize pitches that Witt struggles to square up more frequently, since Witt’s chase and decision tendencies have remained relatively constant.
As shown by the table above, opposing pitchers have increased their usage of four-seam fastballs this season. Overall, pitchers have increased their usage rate of four-seam fastballs to Witt this season from 29.1% in 2024 to 32.6% in 2025. Witt performed well against all pitches last season, including four-seam fastballs in which he produced a .421 wOBA, .437 xwOBA, and 20.1% whiff rate over 757 pitches. So far this season, Witt has seen his performance against four-seam fastballs decline, with a .362 wOBA, .400 xwOBA, and 24.9% whiff rate over 375 pitches in 2025.
As shown by the table above, Witt has displayed a tendency to swing at four-seam fastballs above the strike zone over the past two seasons, however, he has begun to swing and miss at these pitches more frequently in 2025. While the color coding of these tables can be a bit deceiving, Witt displayed a contact rate of ~80% on four-seam fastballs in 2024, which has decreased to ~60% so far this season. Since Witt is still swinging at these pitches with the same amount of frequency as he did in the past, this opens up an area of the strike zone that pitchers can exploit to generate more swing-and-miss, which is indicated by Witt’s increased whiff rate against four-seam fastballs this season.
Why is Witt having difficulty squaring up these pitches so far this season? Anti-climatically, there does not appear to be an easily identifiable culprit as to why Witt has been swinging and missing at these pitches more frequently this season. After conducting some data querying, Witt has maintained roughly the same average bat speed against these pitches this season, although his swing has gotten a bit steeper against these pitches in 2025, with his attack angle increasing from 1.8 to 2.4 and his swing path tilt increasing from 18.6 to 19.0 on four-seam fastballs located above his Statcast-defined strike zone. While flatter swings are generally more ideal for making contact on pitches located up in the zone, it is difficult to say whether this slight steepening of his swing in this area of the zone is a significant contributor to Witt’s increased tendency to swing-and-miss against these pitches this season.
While Witt’s decline in offensive production to start the season has been a slight disappointment to some, particularly fantasy players, he is still one of the very best players in all of Major League Baseball, and I am confident that he will be able to make the appropriate adjustments to cover this area of the zone and inch closer to his past levels of offensive production. Witt is still hitting the ball incredibly hard when he does make contact, and regression indicators believe that he is currently producing close to his expected production, with a .321 BABIP in line with his career .321 BABIP and his .347 wOBA / .379 xwOBA are roughly aligned with each other when accounting for the change in this season’s run environment. Projection systems are bullish on Witt’s offensive profile, with both THE BAT X and OOPSY projecting Witt for a 142 wRC+ over the remainder of the season.
Witt’s newfound weakness against four-seam fastballs above the zone underscores the constant cat-and-mouse game that is the batter-pitcher matchup, with teams constantly searching for little holes to exploit in an attempt to neutralize the league’s best offensive players. Bobby Witt Jr. is still a very good player, a foundational piece for the Kansas City Royals, who is arguably the most athletic player in all of Major League Baseball, and I have little doubt that he will make the appropriate adjustments that are necessary for him to match his projected offensive production moving forward.
Statistics as of the end of play on June 17th, 2025.
Photos by MLB.com and Icon Sports Wire | By Carlos Leano
