Chen The Levee Breaks

Old roundup.

I know it’s pretty well understood that Wei-Yin Chen is doing poorly this year, but I’ve been seeing some still expecting him to recover as a member of the Marlins in the NL Easy, making him a decent floor guy ROS. Now I know I labelled him as my Call Boy since the Phils are the worst against lefties and Chen should be able to handle that, but last night’s 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 11 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks is a disaster and it should be apparent now that Chen doesn’t have it in him to even do that. In last night’s podcast episode, I mentioned how Chen’s Fastball location has been incredibly bad. Take a look at his Fastball locations from 2015 and notice his ability to pinpoint the inside pitch to right-handers, which sets up his Slider down in the dirt. Now compare that to this season’s heatmap. Holy bejesus that is horrible. It’s like he’s trying to throw Fastballs right down the middle of the plate all day. No wonder his heater is returning a negative RAA mark after sitting positive the last two seasons. I think that should be enough of a deterrent to keep you away from adding him off your wire in the future.

Let’s see what every other SP did yesterday:

Justin Verlander – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I think Verlander has earned that by now.

Jeremy Hellickson – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. He’s the Devil, seriously. Hellickson will have a marvelous start like this one against the Marlins and then tank the next time out because he wants to see your world crumble in front of your eyes. Don’t believe his lies.

Carlos Carrasco – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Aces gonna ace. He was pulled with just 84 pitches since the Tribe were up 11-0 in 98 degree heat. Don’t push the kid when the game is done.

Doug Fister – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Not sure why I didn’t pick Fister as a CB against the A’s but here it is as he capitalized for the third time this year vs Oakland. Nice going kiddo, still don’t like you squaring off against a decent team.

Marcus Stroman – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Considering that this is coming off a 6 ER flub in O.Co, I find it hard to put faith in Stroman from just this one outing. Sure, the two before the 6 ER blowup were solid, and he gets the Padres next…fine. Obviously run him out there against San Diego, but I’m worried about the long term since he still doesn’t have that elite horizontal Fastball movement.

Michael Pineda – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. I hate to admit this but I have Quit Playing Games With My Heart now cycling through my head. Pineda did this against the O’s as the Yankees refuse to lose just one more time to turn up the gas on the hot stove. DO YOUR JOB BALTIMORE. Anyway, Pineda has been as Harvey Dent as they come in 2016, especially as this outing followed a pair of 5 ER clunkers. He’s super two-faced and it’s really tough for you to sit there calmly as you start him each night. It’s the ultimate risk/reward pitcher and if that’s your gig, by all means. At least his hard contact is falling from mid 30s levels to sub 32% with a 3.25 xFIP…man I want to love you so badly Pineda!

Gio Gonzalez – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks.  Ehhhhh I find it hard to be all in on Gio, but this is certainly a start that makes me okay throwing him 12 teamers moving forward. That NL Easy schedule is too good.

Kyle Hendricks – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. How anyone isn’t loving Hendricks at this point is beyond me.

Carlos Martinez – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. CMart did well against the Padres, though I would have liked to see a bit more of K upside against a strikeout heavy team. Regardless, obviously this is a great outing.

Chris Archer – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 11 Ks. Kinda nuts that Archer did this inside Coors. I’ve been harsh on the kid since he’s lost a good amount of velocity from his peak last year, and I’m going to continue being cautious despite this outing. On the plus side for Archer, he does have a set of solid matchups ahead against the Dodgers/Royals/Twins/Yankees/Padres. I want to say he’ll take this start and apply it there. My gut tells me he’ll have some trouble among the easy road ahead, and come playoff time it’s back to the AL Beast for some “fun”. Regardless, he’ll see a bump on Monday.

Ervin Santana – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Nope, still don’t trust Santana. But he has a 2.03 ERA in his last 6 starts! Yeah, and a 5.85 K/9 and a 4.50 xFIP. Sorry, too much risk for me to chase him outside of deeeep leagues.

Anthony DeSclafani – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. After a first inning dinger on a dumb “up and in” pitch call that turned into a “low inner-middle” fastball, Tony Disco was comfortable against the Braves. Yeah FIP/xFIP wasn’t in his favor again, though his hard contact is down to 27.6% now. I’m still a fan – not a OH MY GOD IT’S BOO BOO fan, but I’m happy with him on 12 teamers and deep 10 teamers.

Miguel Gonzalez – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. I know he hasn’t blown up for a while. Don’t care. Miguel…No.

Jaime Garcia – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. This was against the Padres, which makes me a little cautious to trust Garcia is back on track to be the best Toby there ever was…DUN DUN DUN DA! To pitch well is my quest…

Yovani Gallardo – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. Looks like a Gallardo start alright.

Paul Clemens – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. The only reason you’re intrigued by Paul is his last name. Not his ability.

Daniel Mengden – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks. Mengden clearly isn’t the polished arm that we thought he was.

Bud Norris – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. It’s not much of a secret that I’m a Norris fan, and even though those 6 ER are really hard to endure, I still like Norris ROS. Crazy, right? Well, one ER was inherited with two outs and four came way via a trio of longballs. He still struck out 8 Nationals (bottom third in K% as a team) and the game held a 2.22 xFIP. Just saying. If you consider him a must drop at this point, I’d consider holding off as he gets the Rays next time out. I think that will suit your fancy.

Hector Santiago – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. There’s the Santiago we know and hate. That’s more like it.

Lucas Harrell – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Harrell?  More like Carousel, am I right?

Felix Hernandez – 6.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. He struck out his first batter of the game, and got his final out via the strikeout. In between was a 3-run HR and general hittability from the King. His velocity was actually one of his best this year above 91 mph, but it’s hard to be encouraged by this. You may be trying to offload him now, which I totally get, but I think it’s wise to take the chance on a better start next time out against Pittsburgh and then trying to flip him.

Colin Rea – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Is this fantasy? No, just Rea life.

Chase Anderson – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Blegh. Pretty lame, but there isn’t much of an expectancy with Anderson these days anyway.

Patrick Corbin – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. I’ve already hit the gym and lawyered up, so there’s nothing you can do to hurt me anymore Corbin.

Ian Kennedy – 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. If I gave those excuses to Norris, I have to give it to Kennedy too, right? I will…kinda. Despite the four dingers allowed and 8/1 K per BB, it was still a 5.01 xFIP for Kennedy. Not to mention, I definitely dig Norris’ stuff more as well, though the Indians have been one of the hottest offenses in the last 30 days.  Still, like Norris, Kennedy gets a great matchup next time out as he faces the Angels, so don’t go dropping him because of this.

Matt Cain – 2.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. He got lit up in Fenway because it’s the Sawx and Cain just isn’t good anymore.

Drew Pomeranz – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. He was cruising through the first three innings, then failed to record an out on the first five batters, who all came around to score. It was the second time all season Pomeranz used his Cutter more than his Curveball, and it may be because his deuce has missing over an inch of horizontal bend (second lowest amount of the season, the first being his 2016 debut in Colorado). I don’t see this is a new standard and I still love The Dirty Cheerleader moving forward. I think you might find an owner who is freaking out because of the move to the AL Beast so go snatch him up if you can.

Jeff Locke – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks. Oh Locke, never change. Ah who am I kidding please do because this is really dragging us all down.

Martin Perez – 6.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. One of the biggest TEEs showed us why that term exists. It’s just so…vile.

Jorge De La Rosa – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 11 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. De La Rosa has limited upside, pitches his home games at Coors Field, and doesn’t deserve a spot on your team. This should be the blurb for every Colorado starter not named Gray and maybe even Gray.

Bartolo Colon – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. You know, I’ve heard a call for The Big Apple to get more love on The List – he does have 3.48 ERA after all…but that’s about it. His 1.25 WHIP is fine, though the K rate is well under 6.00 per nine and there is little to be happy about outside of a good Win/ERA/WHIP stream here and there. It’s a full on Grave Mistake and that’s not all that fun.

Today’s Streamers

Matt Moore vs. Oakland Athletics – There’s like nothing out there and I wouldn’t recommend this stream but it’s the best we’ve got. Other poor considerations were Tom Koehler against the Phils and…nothing. It’s a really bad streaming day and I’m not claiming these guys as proper call boys.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Zach Eflin vs. Pittsburhg Pirates – The Bucs are 27th in the majors in wOBA over the last 30 days and Eflin is a decent streamer that can be serviceable in these situations. Jon Gray is also a good start against the Braves, but he’s much more owned.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer 

Robbie Ray vs Cincinnati Reds – There are a lot of lame streaming options today, so I’ll go with the highest upside guy in Ray, who could easily hit at least 7 Ks against the weak Reds. Update: It looks like Tyler Glasnow has gotten the nod to start on Saturday against the Phillies. Not a bad stream at all, though there is a little risk involved given his command. It’s a little safer than Ray’s outing, though I see limited upside given the two-pitch approach and command questions.

Game of the Day

Stephen Strasburg vs. Julio Urias – I love watching Stras, especially when a hot young stud in a non-sexual way is on the other side of the hill.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

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