We’re through the All Star break, the trade deadline will be here soon, and gone before DLR&F week 18 hits newsstands. This season is moving at a break-neck pace. We don’t have time for introductory paragraphs anymore. Heck, we’ve wasted more than enough time and words already, lets get to the…
Fallers
Noelvi Marte, Third Base, Cincinnati Reds – 26% Rostered
Noelvi made quite an impact as a rookie last season, slashing .316/.366/.456 with three homers and six steals in just 114 at-bats. He was a big part of the Reds’ exciting, but crowded, young infield, until a PED suspension cost him the first 80 games of the season. With that suspension behind him, Marte has played 20 games for the big club this season, and the returns have not been so great.
Marte did not look strong on his rehab assignment, slashing just .151/.151/.170 with no long balls in 12 games at AAA. Still, with T.J. Friedl and Matt Mclain on the IL, the Reds called him up to man the hot corner. Marte has slashed just .175/.215/.284 with two homers and two steals in 74 at-bats. He’s struck out 26 times while drawing just two walks.
As you may expect, his underlying rates are also not good. Marte ranks in the bottom tenth of the league in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, walk rate, whiff rate, and lots of other rates. He is hitting a ton of grounders and pop-ups. He is barely walking and striking out in nearly one-third of his at-bats. If I want to be extremely generous here, Marte is still just 22 and could quickly shake off the rust from all that time missed due to his suspension. But he has faired so poorly during his rehab assignment, and through his first few weeks back in the majors that I certainly won’t be buying.
If you are looking for targets in dynasty or keeper leagues, Marte should be pretty cheap right now, but I can’t see him being part of a competitive fantasy squad for the balance of the 2024 season.
Taylor Ward, Outfield, Los Angeles Angels – 64% Rostered
Ward is rostered in more than half of fantasy leagues, which may indicate a level of optimism for a turnaround that exists among fantasy managers. The 30-year-old outfielder is slashing .227/.312/.394, with 14 homers, which would be his worst line since the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. But even that line fails to show how badly Ward’s season has progressed. Ward posted an OPS of .800 through the end of May, but slashed just .181/.317/.361 in June and .140/.222/.380 thus far into July. Ward hit 11 of his 14 home runs before June and has not left the yard in 63 July plate appearances.
But things look a little better under the hood. Ward is still making hard contact. His barrel rate sits in the top 10% of hitters, his exit velocity in the top 20%, and his hard rate in the top 30%. His strikeout rate has spiked about 5% from last season, and is a little worse than MLB average, but his walk rate has climbed to over 10%, up a bit from last year. And while his BABIP sat right around .300 for the first couple months of the season, it’s dropped to .219 and .229 for June and July.
Not only do I think Ward has gotten a bit unlucky and is due to regress positively back to his mean, but I also think he might benefit from a change of scenery. Ward will be arbitration-eligible next season, and his name has surfaced as a possible trade candidate. Depending on where Ward is playing come the start of August, he could be in a much better offensive environment than LAA, which is the fifth-lowest scoring team in the Majors. I think savvy managers should definitely consider trying to acquire Ward before a potential deadline deal bumps his value.
Alex Verdugo, Outfield, New York Yankees – 50% Rostered
Verdugo was really good in April. He ended the first month of the season slashing .267/.358/.446, with four homers and a steal. He drew 15 walks while only striking out ten times. His OPS dropped over 100 points in May, but he still provided fantasy value with four more homers and 16 RBI on the month. However, his five walks to seventeen strikeouts in May were a harbinger of things to come.
Things got even worse for Verdugo in June. He still drove in 14 runs on the month but slashed just .219/.266/.324 with a single dinger. He drew seven walks in June while striking out 23 times. But Verdugo had even more (and by more, I mean less) in store for July. He has hit just .159/.209/.238 with a single homer and a 4:13 walk-to-strikeout ratio in July.
There is not much reason for optimism here either. Verdugo’s hard-hit rate and exit velocity sit just above the league’s bottom quartile. He is hitting the ball on the ground more than 50% of the time and doesn’t have the speed to grind out infield hits. He is pretty good at not striking out, with a K rate just over 15%, and his walk rate on the season isn’t terrible at 7.6%, although half of his free passes came in April. He’s not driving in runs and you can not have a guy with a .286 OBP leading off in front of Soto and Judge.
In fact, with Jasson Dominguez and Giancarlo Stanton both injured, I would be pretty surprised if the Yankees did not add an outfielder at the deadline. They may only have Soto for this season and sit just 1.5 games behind the Orioles in the AL East, despite missing Gerrit Cole for most of the season. Verdugo should no longer be rostered anywhere near his current level, and if you’re part of that 50%, you can do better.
Risers
Jose Iglesias, Second Base, Third Base, Vocals, New York Metropolitans – 13% Rostered
There’s nothing like a good ole veteran resurgence. A 12-year MLB veteran with over 1000 games played, Iglesias carries a career .281 batting average, but has only managed double-digit dingers once, and maxed out at 15 stolen bases back in 2018. He spent all of 2023 toiling in AAA. But, Oh My God, Iglesias has been on fire since the Mets called him up this year.
Candelita slashed .417/.462/.528 through 39 plate appearances as a part-timer in June, and has continued to produce at a .377/.421/.660 clip with three dingers and ten runs batted in as a full-time starter through 57 plate appearances in July.
However, Iglesias has a career .709 OPS and carries an average exit velocity, hard hit rate, and barrel rate that rank in the league’s bottom quartile, so I don’t believe those eye-popping slugging percentages will last much longer. But with an elite 13.8% whiff rate and 9% strikeout rate, the batting average is a real plus in a year where the MLB average hovers around .240 for the season.
Iglesias likely won’t provide much in terms of homers or steals, but as a low-ceiling, high floor batting average contributor that carries multi-position eligibility, he could be a useful asset to teams competing for championships in deeper leagues.
Xavier Edwards, Second Base and Shortstop, Miami Marlins – 14% Rostered
We’re gonna stick with high batting average NL East middle infielders. Before his call-up at the end of June, Edwards was slashing .330/.376/.450 over 119 plate appearances at AAA. So far, he’s carried those excellent on-base skills with him to the Majors. The 24-year-old rookie is slashing a robust .343/.429/.403 with four steals and 10 walks, to go along with just 12 strikeouts over 77 MLB plate appearances.
Edwards currently sports just a 19% whiff rate, and 18.2% chase, which back up his excellent 15.65 strikeout% and 13% walk rate. There likely won’t be much power, as Edwards has topped out at just seven homers over 433 plate appearances in the minors and has yet to hit one in 50 MLB games. But he did swipe 33 bags in that same minor league season and is 4-for-6 in stolen base attempts since his promotion.
The Marlins are clear deadline sellers this season and Edwards should be in line for regular playing time for the remainder of the season. Ideally, he moves up to the top of the lineup where his on-base skills translate into more runs and steals. I think Edwards makes a very attractive target for any team in need of a batting average, OBP, or a speed boost, just don’t expect any pop here.
Tyler Phillips, Starting Pitcher, Philadelphia Phillies – 7% Rostered
You’ll have to forgive fantasy experts and managers for the lack of fanfare over Phillips’ debut earlier this month. Over his last two minor league seasons, Phillips compiled an ERA just under 5.00, a WHIP over 1.4, fewer strikeouts than innings pitched, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio just a little better than 2:1. Those results don’t paint a picture of someone for whom you empty your FAAB.
And yet, Phillips has turned heads with a 2.81 ERA, .875 WHIP, and 15 strikeouts with just one walk issued over his first three MLB starts, covering 16 innings. He only went four innings in his first start vs Atlanta but picked up wins against Oakland and Pittsburgh. Those wins are more impressive than they sound, as both the A’s and Buccos have been surging lately. (Seriously, Oakland is a terrifying matchup for starting pitchers right now.)
Phillips has found success relying on a big slow sweeper with a ton of vertical movement. His second most used offering is a 94 MPH sinker that has gotten hit pretty hard so far (.375 average, .875 slugging). He mixes in both a four-seamer and curveball, but he needs to have more success with his sinker to maintain any level of success.
Phillips also benefits from playing for the top team in the National League. With Taijuan Walker expected to remain on the IL into August, Phillips should get at least one more turn in the rotation. I think he’s worth a shot, especially in deeper or NL-only leagues, and if he can keep the walks down, could supplant Walker and his 5.60 ERA on the season as the Phils’ 5th starter down the stretch.
As always, thank you for reading, and good luck out there Deep Leaguers!