Welcome back deep leaguers! It is the final month of fantasy baseball season. Almost all deep leagues are in the midst of their playoffs at this point, even if this is week one. That means that our focus is going to shift slightly and narrow in over the next couple of weeks. I’m not really considering the impact of 2025 or beyond, it’s just about winning this year. So let’s get to it.
Fallers
Nolan Jones, First Base and Outfield, Colorado Rockies – 44% Rostered
Jones has missed most of 2024 with back and knee injuries, but was reactivated in mid-July and has been rusty, to say the least. Since returning to the lineup, Jones has slashed .268/.326/.366 with no homers, one stolen base (and one caught stealing), four runs scored and seven driven in. That line is actually superior to the .203/.311/.313 triple slash he was carrying before his most recent IL stint, but Jones was a 20/20 guy who nearly hit .300 last season.
The injuries are likely a contributing factor, but Jones just isn’t the same hitter this season. Last year, Jones carried an exit velocity above 90 MPH and a barrel rate over 15%. This season he’s lost almost two full MPH from his average exit velocity and his barrel rate has dropped to 5.1%, less than a third of his ’23 rate.
Jones is still walking more than 12% of the time, so his eye and plate discipline still look good, and he does still get to play his home games at Coors Field. The Rockies are also out of the playoff picture, so I’d expect Jones to play every day even if he struggles. I’d even consider trying to catch lightning in a bottle with Jones if I lost an outfielder this coming weekend, but the Rockies are on the road this week, and I’m avoiding him for now.
Logan O’Hoppe, Catcher, Los Angeles Angels – 65% Rostered
Faithful DLR&F readers know by now that a greater than 50% roster rate means a Faller has had a pretty rough go of late, and the line I’m about to transcribe into this paragraph is maybe the worst I’ve seen this year. Logan O’Hoppe slashed .099/.163/.176 over 25 games (98 plate appearances) in August. That is the first sub .100 average and I believe the first sub .200 OBP and slugging percentage months I’ve come across while writing these articles.
O’Hoppe is a pretty good hitter, too. He’s still carrying an average exit velocity of over 90 MPH, a barrel rate north of 11%, and a hard rate over 46%. All of those rates are in the top third in the league, with the barrel and hard-hit rates creeping into the top quartile. He does strike out almost 30% of the time and carries a poor walk rate, though. Much of O’Hoppe’s recent struggles can be summed up via a couple of charts.
He was never an above-average contact hitter, but the contact really dropped off starting around the beginning of August. It’s not that he’s swinging at bad pitches either, as we can see his decision value chart trend upward even as his contact rate dwindles. This is the type of situation that leads me to speculate about an unrevealed nagging injury. Or maybe it’s fatigue setting in, as O’Hoppe only played about 60 games last season and is nearing 120 games played this year. Either way, there are plenty of other catching options available right now that are hitting over .100 for the last month.
Jorge Polanco, Second Base and Third Base, Seattle Mariners – 27% Rostered
Polanco had looked like he was finding a groove, posting a .783 OPS with five dingers over 89 plate appearances in July. Then he dropped off in August, slashing just .215/.326/.367 with three homers, 10 RBI, and 11 runs scored. I think the Process chart does a great job describing Polanco, too.
That’s Polanco right there, a bit of an average to below-average contact hitter who sometimes provides some power. He did top 30 homers in a season once, but that was in 2021 when everyone hit moonshots. Now, at 31 years old, he is having his worst professional season and plays for the fifth-lowest-scoring team in the Majors. He ranks in the bottom third of the league in exit velocity and hard-hit rate and the bottom tenth in strikeout rate. It’s nice that he can slot in as both a corner and middle infielder, but that’s about all I have to say in his favor right now.
Risers
Spencer Torkelson, First Base, Detroit Tigers – 48% Rostered
The season line for Tork is still pretty ugly at .220/.283/.384 with eight homers in 268 at-bats. However, over the past two weeks, the former top overall pick has slashed a much torquier .283/.321/.547 with half of those eight longballs. It’s not all sunflowers and cotton candy though. Since his return to the Majors in August, Tork has struck out 22 times and drawn just four walks over 64 plate appearances.
I’m going to utilize the same charts we used for O’Hoppe to paint a similar if not even more extreme picture.
I love seeing these two charts juxtaposed like this. We can see that Tork is a very patient hitter when it comes to outside pitches. His chase rate is actually in the league’s top 5th percentile. However, his contact ability has been so poor, that even with such a legitimately good eye, he’s still just a .22o career hitter. He does not walk much either, which is really a shame for a slugger with poor contact rates and no speed. We can also see that despite his recent success, his contact ability actually looks even worse than it did early in the season, before his demotion.
I’m sure Tiger fans and Tork Truthers would love to see the big slugger find his stride down the stretch, but I don’t think this is it. As a Pirate fan watching Hank Davis struggle, you have my sympathies.
Kyle Stowers, Outfield, Miami Marlins – 2% Rostered
After including Connor Norby in this section last week, I’m starting to think the Marlins are gonna remember their 2024 deadline deal with the Orioles rather fondly. Stowers did not have immediate success following the change in uniforms, but over the last two weeks, he has slashed .314/.385/.600 with a couple of dingers and ten runs driven in. He had a .797 OPS in limited action with the O’s earlier this year too, so this is not at all unexpected.
His sample size is still pretty small with just 137 late appearances this year, but checking under the hood reveals a hitter with a very strong 90.3 MPH exit velocity, a 13.8% barrel rate, and a 48.8% hard-hit rate. It also reveals sky-high chase, whiff, and strikeout rates (all over 30%) and an awful 4.4% walk rate.
I am fairly confident the Marlins will deploy their recent acquisition full-time through the remainder of the year, and while I don’t think he’ll boost your batting average, he could provide some decent pop down the stretch. If DLRFavorite Xavier Edwards returns and Stowers finds himself batting behind Edwards, Norby, and Bride, he could be a nice RBI source as well.
Joey Estes, Starting Pitcher, Oakland Athletics – 15% Rostered
Joey Estes has had a nice three-game run versus the Rays, Brewers, and Rangers. He’s recorded a 2.33 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, and a 17:2 K:BB ratio in 19 innings. Only one of those teams will make the playoffs, but the Rangers and Rays aren’t exactly cupcake offenses. It is also worth pointing out that Oakland has been a winning team since the beginning of August, and we shouldn’t just write off their starters’ ability to earn wins.
Joey Estes is also a 22-year-old starter who relies on a 92 MPH four-seamer for more than half his pitches. He mixes in a sweeper 20% of the time and a slider and changeup that he’ll work in around 10% each. I generally don’t love pitchers that rely on their heater so much, especially one as milquetoast as Estes’ appears (although it does generate better-than-average movement on two planes, and grades out positively on the season). At just 92 MPH mixed with poor extension, he’s not blowing anyone away.
He also has one of the worst ground ball rates among starters at just 23.5%, has a strikeout rate below 19% (bottom quartile), and a whiff rate under 20% (bottom tenth). He is pretty good at limiting free passes though.
So while I can not say I love the player or the profile here, I do like the situation at the moment. The A’s are pretty hot right now, Estes is scheduled to face the Mariners next on 9/5 (that’s tomorrow if you are reading this day of publication. ACTIONABLE INFORMATION), and we’ve just mentioned Seattle being a bottom-five offense. At this stage of the season starting pitchers are only as good as their next matchup, and Estes’ next start looks good from here.
As always, thanks for reading, and good luck out there Deep Leaguers!
Featured Image by Justin Paradis
Thanks.