Before we get started, I want to give a shout out to Pavin Smith, and fantasy managers who grabbed him before his three homer, eight RBI performance Sunday night. I’m sure there are one or two managers out there that won a playoff matchup thanks to his offensive outburst. Congratulations, take a victory lap in the comment section. For the few managers who lost because of that… It’s not your fault.
Fallers
Ramón Laureano, Outfield, Atlanta Braves – 7% Rostered
Laureano was our featured player back in week 22. He had posted a .288/.323/.517 line with seven homers and a couple of steals over 41 games with Atlanta at that point in the season. While I did not think the batting average was sustainable, I did buy into his power production and liked that he was playing every day and batting in the middle of Atlanta’s lineup.
In the two weeks since that article was published, Laureano has batted .278, but with zero homers, five RBI, and a couple of steals. The really bad news is that he has been on the bench for five of Atlanta’s last eight contests, all against right-handed starters, and appears to have shifted into the small side of a platoon situation with Jared Kelenic on the large side.
Laureano still has good underlying rates, especially in terms of exit velocity and hard hit rate, but none of that matters if he’s not getting at-bats. See ya next year Ramon, and thanks for all the dingers!
Ben Lively, Starting Pitcher, Cleveland Guardians – 43% Rostered
Ben Lively’s ERA has gotten worse every month as the season has progressed. He started off great with a 2.30 mark at the end of April. He was still pretty great in May at 3.07 and in June at 3.42. We started to see things come apart in July when he got up to 4.50, and then August got ugly at 5.40. Lively has only made one September start, allowing four earned runs @ KC on September 4th to open the month with an ERA of 9.00. I can’t chalk any of it up to bad luck, as his BABIP against was at its worst way back at the beginning of the season, and has remained below league average all year.
Some of this was probably to be expected. Lively ranks amongst the bottom 10% of MLB pitchers in exit velocity allowed, and just above the bottom 20% in hard hit rate. He also ranks in the bottom tenth of the league in chase and whiff rate and struggles to produce Ks, coming in with a strikeout rate under 20%.
Lively is set to face the White Sox tonight, after this article’s submission. (Hence the single start for September mentioned above), and I am not taking that start in leagues where I roster him. I think that sums up my thoughts on Lively right now. He’s firmly in the “I need any and all Ks, and my ratios don’t matter” pile right now.
Miguel Amaya, Catcher, Chicago Cubs – 19% Rostered
Amaya hit .211 in April, .182 in May, and .175 in June. Then he was possessed by the spirit of Johnny Bench, and hit .333 with an .872 OPS in July and followed that up by hitting .318 with a .924 OPS, four dingers, and 19 RBI in August over just 70 plate appearances.
Then he must have found an exorcist because he went right back to being Miguel Amaya and has slashed just .100/.143/.150 over his first five games in September. Amaya sits in the bottom third of the league in exit velocity, and his barrel rate and hard hit rate are both in the bottom quartile. He does a pretty good job putting the ball in play, with a strikeout rate under 20%, but he also carries just a 6% walk rate.
His Process+ chart does indicate some growth as a batter over the course of the season, both in his decision-making and contact ability, but nothing to support his level of production in July and August. I would keep an eye on Amaya in deep leagues next season, but I’d look elsewhere for the remainder of this year. Joey Bart, who has a similar roster percentage, just came off the IL, and could be available in your league.
Risers
Jesús Sánchez, Outfield, Miami Marlins – 9% Rostered
The Risers section has featured a cavalcade of Marlins lately. Jake Burger, Xavier Edwards, Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers and now Jesús Sánchez. We have a pretty good idea of who Sanchez is at this point in his career. He’s a big lefty slugger with nice power potential, but he also has a penchant for strikeouts and plays on a low-scoring team. He’s also been scorching hot, with a .303/.372/.513 triple slash, four homers, four steals, 13 runs scored, and 15 driven in over the last 30 days.
His average exit velocity and hard hit on the season rank in the league’s top 5%, and his barrel rate is almost there too. He’s still striking out more than 25% of the time, but that is down a tick from previous seasons.
I like the roster in front of him a lot more than I have in previous seasons too. Norby and Edwards have looked like excellent table setters, with Norby providing plenty of power lately. Burger and Stowers give the lineup a couple other scary bats, and the Marlins don’t look the pushover streaming targets they were earlier this season. They even roughed up Aaron Nola over the weekend. There just aren’t many, if any, hitters available right now with the power potential Sanchez can offer. I’d be comfortable running him out there over the next few weeks.
Johnny Deluca, Outfield, Tampa Bay Rays – 10% Rostered
Deluca missed a lot of the season due to injury and carries a disappointing .214/.278/.344 line on the year. However, he has been raking for the last couple of weeks, posting a .364/.391/.591 with two homers and three steals. Deluca is one of the fastest runners in the league, with 98th percentile sprint speed, but the rest of his underlying rates are less exciting.
Deluca has exit velocities and hard hit rates in the bottom 10% of the league, and a barrel rate that is not much better. He chases outside pitches like a dog chases his tail, but has maintained a roughly league-average strike out rate. There is reason for optimism though. Check out his decision-making and contact ability charts below.
His decision quality is still below average (terrible chase rate) but trending in the right direction, and his contact ability (remember his surprisingly low K rate considering the chase rate?) trended all the way into elite territory.
The Rays are not scoring a ton of runs lately, but Deluca has been on fire, and between his contact ability and sprint speed, does possess two elite-level skills. The exit velocity and barrel rates make me skeptical of his power going forward, but I’m in on Deluca based on the speed, contact ability, and his consistent spot in the middle of Tampa’s lineup.
Michael Toglia, Outfield, First Base, Colorado Rockies – 25% Rostered
Toglia has also been on fire for the last month, slashing .258/.383/.472 with four dingers and a couple of steals over that time. The big right-handed hitter is a quintessential TTO (three true outcome) slugger. He’s in the bottom 5% of the league in strikeout rate, and just outside the top 10% in walk rate. He’s also in the top 10% of MLB hitters in exit velocity, hard hit rate, and barrel rate. In fact, only Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Shohei Ohtani have better barrel rates than Toglia this season. (Gee, I wonder what metrics the Yankees value most…) For the record, I love this profile. Lots of sluggers strike out a lot, as they sell out for power, but not many of them have a >10% walk rate.
Now the caveat with most Rockies is that they mash at Coors, but struggle on the road when all that air gets in the way. Toglia, however, has hit better on the road with an .809 OPS and 16 dingers compared to a .765 OPS with just seven homers at home. It’s great to see him have success away from one of the league’s great hitters parks, and while it’s surprising to see his numbers dip at home, I’d wager it’s only a matter of time until he’s able to take advantage of his home park.
With dual eligibility, elite barrel rates and exit velocity, and a strong walk rate, I’m awarding Michael Toglia just the second DLRFavorite designation in the short but illustrious history of Deep League Risers and Fallers. I want Toglia on my roster for the remainder of 2024 and beyond. Don’t be shocked when he’s one of the more hyped players next spring.
As always, thanks for reading, and good luck out there Deep Leaguers!