Hello, Deep Leaguers! This is the final edition of DLR&F for the 2024 season. I’m curious to know what percentage of deep league managers who survived last week did so thanks to Tommy Edman. His offensive explosion included a .391 average, 5 homers, and a stolen base. Just goes to show the importance of reading this article each week. Edman appeared as a Faller in week 22, following a slow start to his belated season debut. But I liked his playing time, lineup spot, and versatility, and here he is winning weeks almost by himself. Alright, one last time for 2024!
Fallers
JJ Bleday, Outfield, Oakland Athletics – 33% Rostered
It’s been a breakout year for the 26-year-old former first-round pick. Barring disaster over the final dozen games, Bleday will finish the year with 20+ dingers, a perfectly playable average, and an OPS within bunting distance of .800. He cut his K rate down under 20% and still walks a ton. However, after a big August in which he clubbed 7 dingers and recorded a .934 OPS, he has slumped a bit over the first half of September.
Bleday is hitting just .226/.339/.359 with no homers and just two RBI this month. He already has 16 strikeouts in just 62 plate appearances, but he has kept drawing walks, with 9 already this month. His power outage has been the real killer, and Bleday’s Process+ chart does not look pretty.
I like the overall view we get from the Process chart on the left, but I think the key component to look at here is Bleday’s contact ability, so I included that chart as well. His decision value has remained average to above average for almost the entire season, but it did hit a low point in early September. His contact ability has been more volatile, hitting its low point back in May, but dipping a couple of times later in the year, including these past two weeks.
The good thing here is that both charts end with an upward swing. We’ve seen Bleday bounce back from similar slumps twice already this season, and I think I would stick it out and run with him for the remainder of the year. I don’t love the final series @SEA, but it’s possible the Ms will be out of wild card contention by then and will refrain from adding any extra mileage to their young arms.
Masyn Winn, Short Stop St Louis Cardinals – 38% Rostered
Winn is another young player who has had a strong season but is faltering lately. He’s hit just .167/.196/.278 with one homer and one steal in September. August had been the best month of his career so far. He slashed .292/.336/.478 with 5 homers (nearly half his season total) and a stolen base. It was his first time recording an OPS over .800 for a calendar month.
However, power isn’t really a major part of Winn’s game. He’s in the league’s bottom sixth in exit velocity and barrel rate and the bottom tenth in hard-hit rate. He puts the ball in play a ton, with just a 17.6% strikeout rate, but carries just a 6.5% walk rate. This season, he’s recorded just a .317 on-base percentage, which is not great for a lead-off batter.
Winn’s ability to make contact has not faltered. We can see in his chart below, that he’s oscillated, but remained above average at contact-making all season.
This is a good thing. He also has a BABIP of .205 this month, so there is some poor batted-ball luck at play here. All in all, I would like Winn’s profile a lot more if he walked just a bit more often, or ran a bit more. As it stands, he offers just a bit of everything, but not enough of anything to stand out. Also, I always want the Y to be in his last name and not his first. Drives me nuts.
Paul Dejong, Kansas City Royals, Short Stop and Third Base – 10% Rostered
Dejong also had his best month in August, where he slashed .265/.329/.574 with 6 dingers. He really was an excellent deadline acquisition for KC. However, since the calendar told me September started, he’s hit just .160/.154/.160 with no homers and just a single RBI. We’ll bring up another rolling contact chart, but Dejong has never really been a big batting average guy.
We can see that Dejong has not come within double-play depth of that MLB average line, and he has really struggled to make contact lately. More damning from a fantasy perspective, though, he’s been on the bench to start 5 of KC’s last 7 games, after starting in 5 of 7 to begin the month. I’m sure plenty of us are thankful for his August contributions, but this is definitely enough for me to cut ties.
Risers
Parker Meadows, Outfield, Detroit Tigers – 21% Rostered
The first spot here was going to Reid Detmers, but it’s hard to write from the hole he left me in after dropping an 11.81 ERA vs the White Sox on Monday. Meadows deserves it in his own right, though. After batting under .100 through April and May, Parker has been great in his second go-round in the Majors.
Austin’s younger brother had a .910 OPS with a couple of dingers in August, and already has three homers and a .268/.323/.500 slash line in September. I’m gonna bring in the whole process chart here because it really illustrates Meadows’ growth this season. Look at those huge strides in contact ability and decision quality over the course of the season.
Meadows still has underwhelming underlying rates though. His exit velocity is just over 87 MPH, his barrel rate is at just 8.5%, and his hard-hit rate is under 40%, but everything is trending in the right direction. He’s one of the fastest runners in the league, and with 8 homers and 9 steals on the season through just 71 games, he has the tools to be a 20/20 player. Meadows is going to get a bunch of hype next season and should be rostered down the stretch run.
Nick Martinez, Starting Pitcher, Cincinnati Reds – 32% Rostered
I included Martinez here in week 21, and then his next three starts were not great. He pitched well but went just three innings versus the Pirates, pulled a PQS out of KC, and then laid an egg in Toronto, allowing 6 runs in 4.1 innings.
But then his next three starts after that were great. He notched three consecutive victories (and 2 QS) versus HOU, @ATL, and @MIN. He racked up 18 strikeouts and issued just 4 walks in 18.1 innings over those three starts, and landed right back here.
Martinez still ranks in the top 5% of MLB starters in exit velocity, walk rate, chase rate, and hard-hit rate. He’s just outside the top 10% in barrel percentage. He’s pretty good at this. Even more importantly, his next outing is scheduled to be against Pittsburgh again. My Buccos might even be without Oneil Cruz, who is currently day-to-day after tweaking his ankle over the weekend. That is a start to target.
Brant Hurter, Pitcher, Detroit Tigers – 13% Rostered
You’ll notice I did not list Hurter as a starting pitcher. This is because he has mostly worked behind an opener, so he is not technically starting. This is important because sites don’t flag him as a starting pitcher, so as a fantasy manager you have to pay a little extra attention to make sure you get Hurter in your lineup on days he pitches. It also means he is not eligible for quality starts and obviously is less valuable in QS leagues.
But Hurter, AKA the Incredible Bulk, has been on fire. He has recorded wins in each of his last 5 outings, @CHC, vs LAA, vs BOS, @OAK, and vs BAL. That is a not-cake walk and Hurter came through it with a 24:4 K:BB ratio and 6 earned runs in 24.1 innings.
So far, Hurter has an elite 3.4% walk rate, a fantastic 5.7% barrel rate, and a staggering 57.5% ground ball rate. His exit velocity allowed is a little higher than average at 89.8 MPH, but I’ll accept that with everything else looking so good. If he pitches on normal rest, Hurter would line up to face KC tonight (9/18) and then would get either Tampa or The White Sox at home next week. I’m signing off on both of those, even after what the Sox just did to Detmers and my ERA.
Thanks for reading! I hope everyone had a great year, and I’m sure your guys will all stay healthy next season! Thanks for all the great art, Justin!
Featured Image by Justin Paradis