As we get closer to draft day the top of the board is starting to solidify. There are no more evaluation opportunities, and scouting reports are finalized and submitted. What the public is hearing is pretty close to a sure thing at this point. But there is a player who makes contact with 87.4% of the pitches he swings at, only chases at 21.4% of the pitches out of the zone, both with a 54.1% hard hit rate. He does all that, while being a draft eligible Sophomore, playing above average defense in Center Field, and showing above average speed with the potential to steal 20 bases in the future. Derek Curiel is the draft’s most enticing prospect, and could hear his name called earlier than many project.
The Big Three
My surface level evaluations always goes to what I deem as the “Big Three” metrics. Does a hitter swing at pitches in the strike zone? Does a hitter make contact when they swing the bat? And does the hitter hit the ball hard enough when they hit it? If a hitter checks those three boxes, alarm bells immediately go off in my evaluation.
When looking at Curiel, it was always obvious he made a ton of contact. But what surprised me was both the approach, and the quality of contact he makes. With an 87.4% contact rate, that puts him in the 95th percentile in all of college baseball, and typically above 80% is the barrier for entry in contact rate. The chase rate is not elite, but it is serviceable at 21.4%. Anything sub 20% is the benchmark that would grade a hitter as above average in approach. The big surprise from the “undersized” outfielder is the 90.6 mph exit velocity, 54.1% hard hit rate, and a 25.8% barrel rate. That shows that he has a knack for hitting the ball consistently hard, and as he continues to add muscle, the approach and contact skills will bode well for his development.
The Brice Turang Effect
One of the most successful player development stories over the last few seasons is Brewers Second Baseman, Brice Turang. Turang always possessed elite bat-to-ball skills, but his 19th percentile bat speed was always a limiting factor to his overall potential. What Turang has been able to do over recent seasons has been to grow into being an above-average power hitter, due in large part to his elite barrel awareness, and ability to “get to his power” as much as possible. Curiel has the potential to be the same type of player.
When looking at Curiel’s data, my inferred bat speed equation has him at 68.9 mph, which is around 15th percentile in the MLB right now. It is not insane to think he could add multiple MPH of bat speed being a draft eligible Sophomore, but that is not the thing that stands out to me. When a player has a well below average bat speed, but has a 54.1% hard hit rate, there is something he is doing that bat speed can’t capture. When Curiel makes contact, he has an elite feel for maximizing what his body is capable of. No different then Turang, who has a 71st percentile squared up%, Curiel has the same ability to square the baseball up and maximize his physical limitations with contact quality which produces consistently higher exit velocities than his bat speed says he should. Squared up% is not a perfect predictor of success, but it is a good indicator of how capable a hitter is to potentially maximize their power profile.
Where is the Power?
With the analysis so far, you would think Curiel is a sure fire Top Five pick, but he didn’t produce at an elite level. While he did hit .352 this past spring, that came only with six home runs, a .524 slugging percentage, and a .172 Isolated power. That power production looks closer to his below average bat speed, then it does to his impressive batted ball profile, so what’s the true evaluation?
As with everything, it falls somewhere in the middle. Power typically comes with maturity, largely due to hitters learning how to naturally pull the ball in the air. Curiel will never be strong enough to hit home runs to CF or the opposite way. He just isn’t that physically gifted. What Curiel can learn is how to elevate the ball in the air, which could help him get to 20-25 home runs a year.
This past spring Curiel had a 46.9% groundball rate, which put him in the 23rd percentile of all of baseball. He combined that groundball rate with a 26th percentile fly ball rate, 23rd percentile Air%, and a 37th percentile Pull air rate at 12.4%. All of those batted ball types will limit a hitter’s power production, no matter how often they are able to maximize their bat speed potential. Extra base hits do not come on groundballs, and typically they do not come from hitting the ball to the opposite field. The feel for power will come with maturity, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Curiel hit for more power with wood than he ever did with metal.
Conclusion
Major League organizations have really started to value “safe” bets. As much as we get infatuated with the tools, and the showcase darlings, the MLB is starting to value profiles who make enough contact to safely know what a prospect is going to be moving forward. Any power addition is just icing on that cake.
Curiel has one of the safest profiles in the class. He makes a ton of contact AND swings at a ton of strikes. That alone will make a prospect intriguing. What makes Curiel fascinating, is the combination of Squared up%, and the ability to grow into more power. You don’t have to have elite bat speed, or even above average bat speed, to hit for power in the MLB. A feel for pulling the ball in the air will outperform even the hardest hit balls on the ground. Curiel is one adjustment away from maximizing his power potential, and combining that with his other skills would make him one of the most well rounded players in the sport.
Photos courtesy of respective owners | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
