DFS Daily Breakdown – July 11

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Sunday.

Happy Sunday! We’ve reached “All-Star Break Eve” and both DraftKings and FanDuel feature an 11-game main slate. There’s rain in the forecast for the Royals/Cleveland game and the Cardinals/Cubs game, so I’m most likely fading those games. We’re not talking about passing rain either. This is the rain all day kind of rain, where you look forward to taking a nap. We call them “nappin days” in this house. Let’s take a look at the Implied Run Totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!


Implied Run Totals


From a stacks perspective, there are only two teams above a 5.0 implied run total – the White Sox and Twins. That certainly narrows things down. On the flip side, there are nine teams that have implied totals of 4.0 or less. Hopefully, when we break out our pitching matchups we’re able to narrow down our options. Let’s take a look at our starting pitchers for the day.


Starting Pitchers


As I just mentioned, there are nine teams with an implied run total of 4.0 runs or less. Two of them are in that Cardinals/Cubs rainy day game, but I’m including the analysis for Adam Wainwright ($7,800 DK, $8,600 FD) and Trevor Williams ($8,500 DK, $6,800 FD), just in case the game plays. Let’s break down the matchups:


Pitching Matchups (Last 30 Days)


Holy cow, that’s a lot of info to get through. As I mentioned in the intro, I’m likely fading the Cardinals/Cubs game due to rain. It stinks because there’s a 16 mph wind blowing in from right-field in Wrigley Field today. Wainwright would’ve definitely been a target in better conditions, but alas, we can eliminate Wainwright and Williams. We can also eliminate Framber Valdez against the best team versus lefties over the last 30 days (Yankees). I’m going to designate Luis Castillo as a GPP only play. He’s shown signs of improvement, but so has this Brewers offense. Finally, at similar prices, I prefer Pablo López ($7,300 DK, $9,300 FD), Ian Anderson ($8,300 DK, $8,300 FD), and José Berríos ($8,000 DK, $9,900 FD) over Chris Bassitt ($8,800 DK, $9,700 FD). That trio of pitchers are all slightly cheaper and have better matchups than Bassitt.

That narrows it down to four pitchers – Woodruff, López, Anderson, and Berríos. Honestly, I’m good with any combination of these four pitchers. I know it looks like López has a difficult matchup, but Atlanta is a totally different team without Ronald Acuña Jr./strong>. If you’re okay with paying down on your stacks, use the extra $2k and pay up to Brandon Woodruff ($10,000 DK, $11,200 FD). If you’d rather pivot off Woodruff and give yourself some extra cash for hitters, I’m totally good with that strategy too. I’m likely going to fade Woodruff and the lineup I’ll provide below will reflect that.


Hitter Stacks


The two teams that are going to be my focus in stacks are the White Sox and Twins. At 6.1 and 5.5, respectively, they’re head and shoulders about the next closest team (Red Sox – 4.9). Let’s break down their matchups and see if one stands out over the other:


Hitting Matchups (Last 30 Days)


Both teams have matchups against pitchers that have been quite stingy this year. Spenser Watkins has only allowed one earned run over the six innings that he’s pitched in the majors, while Wily Peralta has allowed just five runs to cross the plate in 21.0 IP. Regression is coming for these guys though and I’m planning on fully stacking these two teams, it just depends on who fits where.

From the White Sox, I would love to fit in Tim Anderson ($6,000 DK, $3,500 FD), José Abreu ($5,900 DK, $3,600 FD), and Yoán Moncada ($5,600 DK, $2,800 FD), but one of them will likely have to go. Because of his pricing, I’ll be getting my Moncada exposure over on FanDuel. The White Sox do not provide a ton in the “useful value” department, as Brian Goodwin ($4,400 DK, $3,100 FD) is pretty priced up. Two of my favorite cheaper players from the White Sox are Andrew Vaughn ($3,400 DK, $2,300 FD) and Gavin Sheets ($4,100 DK, $2,800 FD).

The Twins on the other hand have a ton of useful value, making these two teams pretty easy to stack together. I want Nelson Cruz ($5,200 DK, $3,700 FD) in my lineup, but after that Trevor Larnach ($3,300 DK, $2,600 FD), Luis Arráez ($3,100 DK, $2,500 FD), Alex Kirilloff ($3,400 DK, $2,800 FD), Max Kepler ($3,200 DK, $3,400 FD), and Jorge Polanco ($4,100 DK, $2,900 FD) are all relatively cheap. Just keep an eye on the lineups once they’re released.


Value Hitters


Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. I’m taking a page out of my colleague Dave Swan’s (@davithius) book and provided my favorite value play from each position:


Value Plays


If you stuck around, here’s the lineup I plan on using in cash games today:


Cash Game Lineup


Good luck today!


Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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