DFS Daily Breakdown – September 29

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Happy Last Wednesday of the Regular Season! Today we get a big 13-game slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel with a start time of 7:00. This is a monster of a slate, which means a lot is going to change as lineups are announced. I’ll do my best to highlight spots that I want to attack. As of this writing, there doesn’t look to be any precipitation in the forecast that’s threatening. There is a chance of rain in Seattle, but they have a retractable roof. Let’s take a look at the implied run totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

Implied Run Totals

We currently have a mind-boggling 11 teams with an implied total of 4.1 runs or less, and that’s without lines for two games. That gives us plenty of pitchers to choose from. Runs, on the other hand, might be tough to come by as there are just four teams with an implied total above 5.0 runs. That group of hitters is led by the Red Sox, who let us down big time in a similar situation last night. Let’s take a look at some of our pitching options.


Starting Pitchers


While I love when we have plenty of options in consideration for our pitchers, sometimes it is tough to make the ultimate decision on who to start. Hopefully, the numbers will help narrow down our choices so that we don’t have to make a choice as tough as Sophie’s.

Pitching Matchups


This is a ton of information! Right off the bat, I know I’m not playing José Berríos, Carlos Rodón, or Max Scherzer in my cash games. With this many pitchers on the slate, there’s a pivot off of a hot offense at every cost.

The first pitcher I’m locking in today is Nathan Eovaldi. He has a great matchup and while he may not have the strikeout upside of a Scherzer, his floor is safer to me.

Figuring out what to do with our second pitcher will likely have to do with what my bats look like. If I have enough money left over, I’d love to get Gerrit Cole into the lineup, but he’s really expensive. With so few decent options in the hitting department, I think I’m going to prioritize my stacks first.

Frankie Montas is a nice pivot down from Cole. He has a decent matchup with the Mariners, but when you compare the savings to their ceilings, I’d rather have Cole for $700 more.

If I’m not paying up to Cole, I’m likely to head down to Alex Wood or Taijuan Walker. Walker’s had a bad case of “homeritis” as he’s allowed 20 homers over his last 11 starts. While Miami isn’t the scariest of matchups, they are around league average in isolated slugging against righties over the last month. That makes it an easy decision to go to Wood over Walker.


Hitter Stacks


Let’s take a look at our sparse hitting options today:

Hitting Matchups

While the Red Sox have the highest implied total on the slate, they’ve struggled against lefties of late. That’s not to say they can’t turn it around, I just would’ve rather seen monster numbers versus mediocre ones. Hunter Renfroe and Bobby Dalbec are two players that I want to lock into my cash game lineups. Both have been hot over the last two weeks. I’m also hoping Kevin Plawecki draws the start, as he’s been hitting the ball better of late. He’s DTD though after getting hit by a pitch in the foot over the weekend. I don’t usually seek out lefty-lefty matchups, but Kyle Schwarber has been crushing the ball, batting north of .350 with two homers against lefties over the last month.

While the Cleveland offense looks meh, two players I like a lot are Franmil Reyes and Yu Chang. Reyes in particular has just crushed left-handed pitching over the last month. And you can always add José Ramírez.

While I like the Dodgers, they serve as a pivot off of the Red Sox to me. The bats you want — Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, and Will Smith — are all priced up super high.

The Giants make for a really interesting stack that could come in underweight in terms of rostership. Unlike the Dodgers, I like that the solid Giants’ bats are reasonably priced. Tommy La Stella should be hitting atop the lineup, with LaMonte Wade hitting in the two-hole. Keep an eye on the lineup though, because La Stella left Tuesday’s game with Achilles discomfort. Steven Duggar is chilling in the 8-spot, but I like him as one of my favorite value plays on the slate.


Value Hitters


Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate. Keep in mind, this is being written well before lock. Make sure you check lineups once they’re posted to find the additional value that opens up.

Value Plays

If you stuck around, here’s a sample cash game lineup:

Sample Cash Game Lineup

Good luck today!


Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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